Vaccine reluctance & General COVID Discussion

Mine doesn’t either. I wish they did. Actually I wish they did by age, seriousness of case, & vax status.

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Yup. More information is always better!

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San Diego County has tons of data online, including hospitalizations and deaths by vaccination status, both year to date and last 30 days.

https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19%20Case%20Summary%20by%20Vaccination%20Status.pdf

https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19%20Watch.pdf

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San Diego County has about 62% fully vaccinated.

Based on table 2 (last 30 days, mostly Delta variant) of https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/dam/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/Epidemiology/COVID-19%20Case%20Summary%20by%20Vaccination%20Status.pdf , we see the following vaccine effectiveness:

Situation # Fully Vaccinated # Not Fully Vaccinated % Fully Vaccinated Vaccine effectiveness
Cases 3,913 28,509 12% 92%
Hospitalizations 12 603 2% 99%
Deaths 2 27 7% 95%
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I use MN’s weekly covid reporting to estimate VE against hospitalization. Fortunately, they started providing breakthrough infection, hospitalizations and deaths (updated weekly), and they have also been reporting daily hospital admissions. I wish they broke all this out by age group but they don’t seem to. Anyway, crunching the numbers for the latest week of available data indicates that overall VE is about 81.5% against hospitalization. (This will vary by age group but as mentioned I haven’t found that kind of detail yet). This rate hasn’t been publicized, to my knowledge - the media here sticks to the summary reports such as “hospitalizations for the vaccinated are only .027%!” Yes, that’s a great statistic but it’s also a cumulative number calculated from the time vaccines first appeared in this state. It doesn’t show what’s been happening recently. When I look at the weekly breakthrough numbers, I notice that hospitalizations of the fully-vaxed have increased more rapidly than have the numbers of fully vaxed - by a factor of nearly 4x. So the increase in hospitalizations isn’t due to more people being fully vaxed - it’s due to other factors (waning effectiveness against Delta, for instance). That’s why VE is lower - 81.5% - than it used to be (well over 90%). The numbers are still good, of course, but they aren’t as good as they used to be. It would be helpful if the press here could be a bit more on top of things in their reporting, rather than just taking whatever statistic is spoon-fed to them by our Dept. of Health.

Dabo Sweeney, the head football coach at Clemson University

Dabo on getting vaccinated: “It’s like knowing it’s freezing cold outside. You go out dressed properly. You might still get cold but you did everything you could to mitigate it.”

Did not have football coaches being the voice of reason on being vaccinated on my bingo card. But here we are.

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The attached article says San Diego County has almost 75% of residents fully vaccinated.

I wonder which is correct. Is it 62% or 75%?

“74.4% of the county’s eligible population” means the percentage of people 12 years old and older.

For percentage of total population by county:

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Thank you for explaining that.

Well, our mayor is planning to institute a plan requiring proof of full vax or negative test writhing 48 hours.

https://www.oneoahu.org/safe-access-oahu/#patrons

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Patriots cut unvaccinated Cam Newton today!

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Two middle school teachers from the same middle school in TX died in one week. One was 59, the other 41. The article doesn’t say if they were vaccinated or not, but I’m thinking it would have made the news if they were. When more than one outside the “typical” stats for deaths passes away so close together I can’t help but wonder if it’s just odds or something more sinister about the specific virus they caught. Two makes it more likely it’s odds I guess, but occasionally it’s more than two.

If anyone has more info, feel free to share.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article253881828.html

Two teachers at a Texas junior high school died from COVID-19 complications within the same week, leading to the temporary closing of the school.

“With the loss of two beloved teachers, we know that concerns for physical and mental health are heightened,” Connally Independent School District said in a note to parents, and forwarded to McClatchy News. “We want to assure you that we are focused on measures to take care of our students and staff.”

The two teachers taught at Connally Junior High School, a 6th through 8th grade school in McLennan County, just outside of Waco.

Reading the above linked article again about the two teacher deaths in TX I came across these:

The second-year teacher, Natalia Chansler, taught 6th-grade social studies before she died Aug. 28 from “complications of COVID-19,” according to the district. She was last on the junior high campus Aug. 25, three days before her death.

and

Seventh-grade teacher David McCormick died of COVID on Aug. 24, the newspaper reported. The last time he was on campus was Aug. 18, about a week before his death.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but both of them had to have been very sick while on campus, no? I thought it took longer to die, more akin to “in the hospital for a couple weeks or more, then dying.” How can one go from being on campus to dead in three days to a week? Either they were deathly ill and trying to be macho about it, in denial, or that particular virus seems to have been pretty strong.

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Well, according to this article from late July, the area had a fully vaccinated rate of 36%……… COVID-19 cases are again rising, but Central Texas vaccination rates aren’t

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COVID patients can have clotting issues. That’s one etiology of rapid demise.

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Seriously?

How about this one?

Or lots and lots of others… ex:

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The problem is there are reports like the one below that show in areas those numbers don’t actually pan out.

In LA county hospitals 12% of hospitalized and 12% of deaths are in vaccinated people. That’s just one example.

25% of Midland Michigan hospitalized patients are vaccinated. There’s another.

https://www.ourmidland.com/news/article/Quarter-of-Midland-hospital-COVID-19-patients-are-16416931.php

It’s ok to share these numbers. It’s ok to show that being fully vaccinated still leaves some people vulnerable. We all know that vaccines are helpful. It’s ok to show they aren’t perfect and to actually give good numbers that people can see and understand.

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That article is firewalled, but assuming it’s an accurate headline (not always true), here’s the math for Los Angeles.

Using a population of 10,000 to have easy math. Google tells me the vaccination rate is about 65.3% of all residents (including those too young, etc).

So 6530 of the 10000 are vaccinated and 3470 are not. To have no difference (vaccine isn’t effective), there should be 65.3% +/- hospitalized and dying, but we only have 12%.

So, say 100 people died (easy math again). 12 were vaccinated and 88 weren’t.

12/6530 died or 0.18%

88/3470 died or 2.54%

One has a 14x higher chance of dying if unvaccinated just by math.

As always, I’d want to see age factored in with the stats, but I assume the article doesn’t give that. We know the vaxes aren’t as reliable with older and immunocompromised people. I expect the numbers skew a bit even more in favor of vaccines.

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From your second article:

There are 38 in-patients who are specifically being treated for COVID-19 across MidMichigan Health, 20 of which are in Midland. Of those 20, two are on ventilators and neither of one have been vaccinated. Dr. Watson went on to state that of the patients admitted MidMichigan Medical Center-Midland for COVID-related reasons, 25% were fully vaccinated. None of the fully vaccinated patients, however, are on ventilators. From what Dr. Watson has observed, those fully vaccinated for COVID-19 tend to be less sick, are less likely to be admitted into intensive care (ICU), and are less likely to be ventilated.

“The trend is that these patients seem to be vaccinated earlier – like (around) January – and/or have some medical conditions that suppress their immune system,” Dr. Watson said.

It still matches everything I’ve been reading.

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