My vaccine hesitant friend (who had Covid and it was like the Flu) made a comment that only cases she hears about in her circles are her vaccinated friends getting covid, and not her unvaxxed. yes the odds are the majority of her friends are vaccinated, but for someone on the fence hearing about breakthrough cases , after having Covid makes her hesitant. She will likely get vaccinated as she will be over 6 months since invention, and she wants to travel, but she has been fence riding.
If the purpose of the vaccines is to prevent serious illness and everyone who wants a vaccine can get one, and soon that will include 5-11 year olds, can we get away from having to Isolate if nonsympomatic. That is when i will think that the tide is turning. Protecting those (not under 12) that dont want to be protected is getting old
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Hereâs a fun story - Floridaâs new surgeon general refusing to wear a mask when requested. Then claims heâs the reasonable one and the senator with breast cancer is being unreasonable. I believe heâs also anti-vax and pro-nut (supports ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, etc).
As he finally agreed to exit her office, Polsky said Ladapo turned to her and said: âSometimes I try to reason with unreasonable people for fun.â
People like this will go down in history, but probably not the way anyone would want to.
Even without Covid, if someone with a serious medical condition wanted me to do (or not do) something while in their presence, I would. Itâs called being considerate. When one doesnât itâs called being an a__.
This is the current state of Florida politics, a Surgeon General who wonât lift a finger (or mask) to protect a medically vulnerable person.
And we all know itâs purely politics. Had this happened in the Pre-Covid days I imagine he wouldnât have thought twice about doing what she asked.
You not only question how scientists and statisticians keep track of information regarding breakthrough cases, you claim the number of breakthrough cases is much higher than what they have reported; stating unequivocally, âthe reality is very different.â Yet you uncritically present as âfactualâ a single anecdote; a third hand account of a party attended by your brother-in-lawâs family (but not your brother in law). You insist that everyone there was vaccinated, but how would you know that? And even if they were how does your single anecdote override the determination of statisticians and scientists based on the study of millions of cases? Why no second guessing of your âdata collectionâ by anecdote?
So, I think it reasonable to conclude you are elevating your single, third-hand anecdote above the scientific consensus, and weâll just have to agree to disagree on this one.
There is no reliable data because the CDC intentionally chose not to collect it and focus on only those breakthru cases requiring hospitalization. Of course there are thousands of cases not getting to that level.
A KFF study did not rely on CDC information but instead relied on data from those states which had regularly reported breakthrough cases. The study determined:
While information on breakthrough events is still limited and incomplete, this analysis of available state-level data indicates that COVID-19 breakthrough cases, and especially hospitalizations and deaths, among those who are fully vaccinated are rare occurrences in the United States. Moreover, this data indicate the vast majority of reported COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in U.S. are among those who are unvaccinated or not fully vaccinated. These findings echo the abundance of data demonstrating the effectiveness of currently authorized COVID-19 vaccines.
It is not surprising that infections (breakthrough or otherwise) occur in clusters, commonly associated with indoor events which may be crowded or where participants are exposing each other for a considerable time.
In one family might be important too, esp if theyâre genetically related. Even if not though, if they spread the virus among each other giving each of them a high enough load, that could tip the scale.
The only breakthrough cases that I know of personally involve a family that lives together in the same household. Apparently, one got it from somewhere and then spread it to the rest⊠not that surprising if family members spend a lot of time indoors with each other in the same residence, where a presymptomatic spreader can fill a room with virus over hours that the others are also there.
I know more people with breakthrough cases than I do who got Covid pre vaccine. Only two were hospitalized though, which is great. In my area they account for 30% of all cases, including those that are hospitalized. Not sure if thatâs considered rare. We are highly vaxxed here so that may be why.
can you offer any support for your assertion that, in your area, 30% of those hospitalized are breakthrough cases?
added: Here is a NYT analysts that suggests that this is not the case.
I chatted with my nurse neighbor earlier today and asked him about our local hospital. Very full, over full with people on ER beds instead of comfortable beds and more. ER nurses are very burned out with many questioning why they stay in ER instead of going to easier options. New hires are getting sign on bonuses - annoying those who have been there and havenât gotten much. He teaches a nursing class now and all of his students have sign on bonuses from various places and this is even before theyâve graduated and completed some required things.
I probably missed some things. We chatted for a bit, mostly him answering my question. His biggest worry is that soon many of those burned out nurses will actually leave for greener pastures.
He also said that Jan/Feb are usually their busiest months, but this has been worse than that and itâs been this way for a few months now.
It wasnât an encouraging chat to me. Sadly, if there are true emergencies around, folks involved wonât be getting ideal care.
The NYT says many places are seeing decreases in numbers. Weâre flat. Hopefully things improve soon. In the meantime, we shall try to avoid health issues of any sort.
H and I are going to call about booster shots tomorrow.
I think âbreakthrough casesâ is a strange term. If we get an MMR vaccine and end up getting a light case of measles we donât call that a breakthrough case. Vaccines donât prevent 100% of cases. They just keep us from getting such a severe case that it kills us. The numbers Iâm interested in are the hospitalizations. How old are the people who are being admitted? How sick are they? Are they vaccinated? Do case that are so mild they can be mistaken for the common cold carry much of a viral load?
Ergh. We donât know, canât know what the actual vaxed-positive rate is. First because some who catch it will be asymptomatic; second because many who are symptomatic wonât test; third because many who test and come up positive wonât report; fourth because our data trackingâs a shambles, partly intentionally.
I donât know that that part matters. At this point it seems to me that the important questions are:
- whatâs in the pipeline for defense against likely evolutions that defeat the current vaccines;
- for how long does the virus bubble away inside you marauding, and what controls that;
- what are the post-acute damage patterns and how do we address those;
- whoâs winding up in the hospital despite vax;
- what connection exists between mild covid and long covid;
- until covidâs eradicated or somehow neutered, how are we going to build this into medical, governmental, social infrastructures so that we do figure out how to minimize risk reasonably, make accommodation for the vulnerable, and take care of people who wind up seriously and/or long-term ill.
2-5 strike me as all being part of the same question. Itâs also worth noting that thereâll probably be many more vaccinations and therapies, so I donât know that itâs worth perseverating on breakthrough rates on three early vaccines, especially when data collectionâs poor.
Sure. Hereâs the link to CTâs covid info: https://data.ct.gov/stories/s/q5as-kyim
This past week only 24% of vaxxed were hospitalized, but you can look back on previous weeks - itâs been pretty consistently closer to 30%. You can also go back and look at # of cases.
30% of hospitalizations out of the 70% of the population that is vaccinated in Connecticut suggests an 82% vaccine effectiveness against needing hospitalization.
Interesting that the Times excluded CT. Also, that article is from early August.