Another heartbreaking story all caused from believing misinformation. She was only 22. I feel for her husband, family, and the baby who will grow up without a mother and with the setback of having to be 2 months premature.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/24/us/covid-19-baby-registry-mom-died-nurse/index.html
Looked at previous weeks. Itās not 30%. For the previous month itād been an average of 23%, with no week above 25%. So @ucbalumnus figure of 82% vaccine effectiveness against needing hospitalization is low.
I donāt think the NYTimes āexcludedā CT. CT wasnāt reporting the information broken down by vaccinations until after the NYT article was published.
Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization would be 87% if the 70% vaccinated produced 23% of hospitalizations.
This is all you need to know from CT:
"For the week beginning October 10, 2021, unvaccinated persons had a 4.4x greater risk of testing positive for COVID-19 compared to fully vaccinated persons.
For the week beginning October 10, 2021, unvaccinated persons had a 20.4x greater risk of dying from COVID-19 compared to fully vaccinated persons."
These are massive relative risk differences.
As @momofboiler1 said, if you get COVID and itās essentially like a cold with no long term sequelae, job well done vax!
I go on to the site every day at 3:00 pm and there have been many days where it has been 30% or more. I do not have time to find and post each specific day. Here is an article I posted back in August: https://ctexaminer.com/2021/08/24/yale-doctors-warn-of-breakthrough-covid-infections-counsel-for-masks/
āAt Yale New Haven Health 27 percent of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 were fully vaccinated. At Hartford Healthcare, that number is 30 percent. In the state as a whole, 65 percent of the entire population is vaccinated.ā
To the others that replied, your points have nothing to do with my post. I made a statement and was asked to show supporting evidence. That is all.
Weāve seen a lot of articles about why more vaccinated people are showing up in hospitals. From the figures you gave above, which I am sure are correct, there are still Ā±70% of hospitalized people with Covid who arenāt vaccinated. And they are dying at higher rates.
Yes, some people will end up in hospital even if they are vaccinated. They are dying less often. The evidence is unequivocal and we can discuss it until the cows come home, but nothing anyone says will refute the truth: vaccines save lives.
I canāt wait to get my booster. Iām hoping for a normal winter, seeing friends and family, and not worrying about dying of covid or giving it to others.
āVaccine effectiveness against hospitalization would be 87% if the 70% vaccinated produced 23% of hospitalizations.ā
I donāt understand how these percentages of effectiveness are calculated.
Is there a formula? Or a primer on understanding vax data and calculating effectiveness? Thank you.
Okay, Iām not a stats guy, but I think thereās an error here. It is 30% (or 23 or 24%) of vaxxed folks as part of the overall hospital Covid populations, not effectiveness against hospitalization (maybe something something about relative risk?)
To know how effective it is against hospitalization, youād have to map it against total number of vaxxed infections, not against relative vaxxed/unvaxxed percentages, which has nothing to do with absolute effectiveness. I am quite sure it is much higher a chance of no hospitalization than 87%.
(Stats folksāmaybe I misread something, so feel free to weigh in here.)
As a quick reminder, as vax rates go up, so will the number of those vaxxed in the hospital. If thereās a 100% vax rate and just 1 person ends up hospitalized, then the vax rate of those hospitalized is 100% by default. It certainly doesnāt mean the vaxxes have failed. Without the vaxxes there would be 10-20 people hospitalized pending various numbers out there. With them 9-19 people saved themselves a trip to the hospital.
This is not remotely true. Because there is no way that 24% of vaccinated persons are hospitalized. Surely you mean that of those hospitalized for Covid complications, 24% were vaccinated.
Iāve been catching up on local newspapers after our most recent trip and came across a column written by John Messeder - heās local, so the only link Iād probably find would be behind a firewall (though others can hunt if they want to).
Anyway, the column is titled āVaccines and Loaded Trucksā (Sept 24th paper if anyone is hunting). I like a couple of points he makes:
"I was warning about governments tracking us back when stores were handing out Preferred Shopper cards, baited with discounts on overpriced porducts, as a means of tracking our purchases. I, and others, wrote in the late 1980s about the EZ-Pass that would decrease tolls on the turnpike in return for tracking where we got on and off the pike and where we worked and played.
Nearly all of us carry cell phones allowing Mom, boyfriend, grocery store and police department to know where we are at all times. Do we really believe cameras mounted to record speeders and drug dealers are not also recording shoppers and friends on a street corner who stop to chat about the weather and how many beds are available at the neighborhood hospital?
And yet so many of us seem worried authorities might track us using the Covid vaccine.
ā¦
I have been a journalist nearly half a century, and I think I understand the polarization. Too many of our federal and state politicians have treated with serious disrespect those who put them in their lofty positions.
But using that to avoid the Covid vaccine is like sitting in a Camry arguing the right of way with a truck full of logs. You might be right, but itās going to be hard scoring the win when youāre dead."
Small town newspaper, definitely in a Deep Red area with some Blue interspersed and hospital beds all around are full and overfilled. Gotta say, Iām looking forward to reading Letters to the Editor to see if any address his column, esp since in another column in the following dayās paper is a bunch of cwap supporting Ivermectin and wondering why the US doesnāt put it into greater use. I have no desire to reprint any of that. It disgusts me that paid columnists donāt do more research and fact checking, but it doesnāt seem to happen often with some reporters in this newspaper.
I see that ā161 ( 76.3 %) are not fully vaccinatedā.
That means that 24% of the hospitalized are partially or fully vaccinated. What they are not telling you is how many of the 161 are fully vaccinated or partially vaccinated. Being partially vaccinated is not the same as fully vaccinated, which is why 2 doses are needed.
You would be surprised at the number of unvaccinated who start to feel sick and then go to get their first dose. By then it is too late for the vaccine to take effect. Those people are now partially vaccinated and would be counted in the 24% group but in effect they are actually unvaccinated and should be counted as such because the vaccine will not have been given a chance to start working yet.
Similar to the large number of stories you hear from ICU personnel who tell of countless stories of folks asking for the vaccine just after theyāre told they need to be intubated and go on the ventilator.
Suppose 100 people get hospitalized for COVID-19, 23 of whom are vaccinated, out of a population of 100,000 people, 70,000 (70%) of whom are vaccinated.
That means that 23/70,000 = 0.000328 (0.0328%) of vaccinated people were hospitalized, and 77/30,000 = 0.00257 (0.257%) of unvaccinated people were hospitalized. That means that the rate of vaccinated people being hospitalized over the rate of unvaccinated people being hospitalized is 0.000328 / 0.00257 = 0.128 (12.8%). That means that vaccinated people were protected from needing hospitalization 1 - 0.128 = 0.872 (87.2%) of the time, hence a vaccine effectiveness of 87.2%.
Or if you want a formula: 1 - ((Hv / Pv) / (Hu / Vu)) where
Note that you do not need the actual numbers, since the relative numbers (from percentages) are what affect the calculation. The above example ends up the same whether we assume a total population of 10,000, 100,000, or 1,000,000, or whether we assume total hospitalizations of 100 or 1,000.
Okay, let me make sure I understand this. It looks like the sentence says that vaccinated people are protected from hospitalization 87.2% of the time, which I donāt think is what you mean, because it would imply that overall they are hospitalized 12.8% of the time. If I am understanding this correctly, what you mean is that the subset of breakthrough vaxxed folk who would otherwise (if unvaxxed) have needed hospitalization, are now protected from it 87.2% of the time. Not that all breakthrough cases are protected 87.2%. Is that correct?
Yes.
Thanks!
@ucbalumnus, @data10, or someone else, please correct me if Iām wrong, but it seems like, with regard to hospitalization, these numbers still understate the benefit of vaccination relative to not being vaccinated.
As @TexasTiger2 pointed out, the 76% includes those with only one shot, and in CT 78% (not 70%) of the total population has received at least one shot. More importantly, 90% of the population over the age of 11 has received at least one shot, and 99% of the population over the age of 64 has received at least one one shot. And we know Covid hospitalizations skew older. According to the health data.gov website, as of Oct. 25 there were 190 adults hospitalized with confirmed cases, and only 2 ājuvenileā hospitalized with confirmed cases. So at least 98% of the hospitalizations are coming from a demographic where 90% have at least one shot. (The ājuvenileā cases could be kids between 12-18.) And looking at the nytimes tracker of daily hospital admissions per 100K population, it looks as most of those hospitalized fall in the group that is 99% vaccinated.
Iām not sure we have the data to come up with an accurate percentage of the real relative risk (and I couldnāt do the calculation even if we did) but it seems like such a calculation ought to take into consideration the higher vaccination and hospitalization rates among the more vulterable populations. In a state like CT where the one shot vaccination rate of the most vulnerable demographic is approaching 100%, hospitalization rates of vaccinated people are bound to be higher because there just are very few unvaccinated old people.
added:
The link you provide links to a table most recent comprehensive weekly reports. Here are the percentage not fully vaccinated for the most recent 4 reports, going back to Sept. 30: 78.1% 76.6%,78.7%, 77.4%. The average for those 4 weekly reports is 77.7%.
I say this over and over again but people donāt understand it. So frustrating.
Yes, sorry, poorly worded!
I said nothing about vaccine effectiveness. I didnāt say vaccines donāt save lives. I commented that based on what is going on in our state and among the people I know, breakthrough cases are not what I would consider a rare event. I had to convince my mother to get vaccinated in the first place. When I spoke with her a few months ago when Delta cases were increasing in both vaxxed and unvaxxed, I talked to her about being careful and to make sure she was still wearing a mask due to the breakthrough cases. She had no clue there were any breakthrough cases. The information isnāt exactly being shared by all the local media outlets, Iām sure because they do not want to create vaccine reluctance. But sheās now being more careful and sheās getting her booster shot based on the information Iāve shared with her. And since she is 85 and a lung cancer survivor, Iām happy about that.