Vaccine reluctance & General COVID Discussion

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1443

I’m not sure one can really look at lockdown/mask states vs not. PA was one that locked down and had a mask mandate, but I live here and a lot of people around us and making local news refused to wear masks at all. One of our vocal local politicians is as big of an anti-masker as they make them encouraging anyone who would listen to follow his example.

Stores rarely enforced anything due to the threat of violence or losing business from those who were so anti-mask. H and I would get take out from some restaurants and eat in the car watching various convenience stores. Never was there high mask compliance. At best it got to 50/50 in those stores (going inside, not just gassing up).

There were a whole bunch of restaurants that opened for indoor dining in spite of the official lockdown. FB posts showed many locals openly supporting them and encouraging others to do the same. The state tried to cite them, but last I read they’ve dropped all charges. It ended up meaningless if the restaurant wanted to ignore it and many did - lists were posted.

When we traveled I saw far, far more mask compliance in MD and MD has far better numbers than we do, but even then I have no idea what actual compliance was - just what I saw.

Anyone using stats from that is using dubious standards. Laws can be written, but if they aren’t enforced at all, do they count?

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1444

Ultimately this really boils down to everyone who shares seems to want to share. And some of them likely felt pressured to do so and others lied. But in my experience, that isn’t anyone or anything close to everyone. And I expect that the closer to normal your life has been for the past year+ the less likely you are to be all about sharing. And the less normal your life has been the past year+ the more likely you are to be all about sharing.

In the past month or so (since state restrictions were announced to be lifting and since they have actually been lifted) where there were fews conversations about vaccine status in the group gatherings I have attended.

1445

Some grad student right now is probably comparing death rates among “red” and “blue” congressional districts in lockdown states, and again in non-lockdown states.

1446

At least doing it by congressional district would be more fair than by state - as long as they also look at demographics like socio-economic class, age, etc.

One of the worst things about the pandemic was just how polarized it became. I guess in today’s day and age in this country (and a few others) nothing can be outside of politics and/or religion.

However, nothing really changed in 2020 vs the Spanish flu in 1918. Our local newspaper did stories about that time period and one would think they were writing about Covid. There were masks and shut downs and people dying along with anti-maskers, “freedom” lovers, and those who said it was all overblown.

Humans are humans - nothing changes. The only change since then was the improvement in medicine (thankfully) or we’d have lost as many or more as were lost back then (per capita).

I recently overheard one conversation at a nearby table in a restaurant with one person telling another that what’s happening now is Natural Selection in action since it’s mainly those who are anti-vax suffering the consequences. It’s an interesting point to ponder, but personally, I don’t think they’re right as long as Covid isn’t killing off that many prior to reproduction. It might be hurting one political party more than another though.

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1447

You might want to look at the numbers a bit more closely. I see Florida as 53.2% white, and Washington State as 67.5%. That is the latest ACS data available. I think you are aggregating Hispanics who identify as white with white-only. Also enormous differences in black percentages, 17.9% in Florida versus 4.4% in Washington. If you adjust for race characteristics (which I did not do, but you are welcome to), I’d guess Florida would look roughly equal to Washington on the metrics you cite.

But your original criticism of my numbers was my characterization that California and Florida showed roughly equivalent death rates adjusted by age. I think that is pretty obviously correct; if anything, Florida looks better.

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1448

Clotting problems, heart inflammation, and menstrual issues have all gotten mainstream press.

I understand why FB deleted the user groups since there is a lot of misinformation out there and lots of unsubstantiated claims and fear mongering.

For example, leading up to the approval of the vaccine for 12-15 year olds (but before any vaccines were administered to that age group outside of vaccine trials), claims started popping up that a 15 year boy in Colorado died two days after receiving the shot. It was taken as fact and spread by bloggers and social media. There is no record or any proof whatsoever of that event, yet people still take it as fact.

I also read on social media how 1000s of people had heart problems after the vaccine and how the vaccine definitely causes miscarriages, infertility, etc…

While it’s important for people to be able to report possible side effects and for everyone to be informed, history and an understanding of human nature tells us social media is not the place to do it.

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1449

I think that it is supremely callous to all 600,000 deaths and 2,200,000 hospitalizations “incredibly light”.

Considering the fact that the thanks that most people of that age get for raising their kids, sending them to college, and helping them establish a life is being locked away in an old age home, I do not think that they owe us any thanks at all.

I also don’t think that people deserve thanks for not engaging in behavior that endangers others.

It has killed the elderly at a much higher rate, but at least 270,000 people under 75 have died from COVID, and around half of the hospitalizations are of people under 75.

Furthermore, it has killed people who are the age of all of these young people’s parents, so I would expect that they would be happy that the people who provide them with food and shelter are not dying, no?

Or do you believe that all of these teenagers and colleges students are supporting themselves, paying rent or mortgage, buying and preparing food?

Do you really think that these kids would be OK if their 40 something parents would die from COVID?

DO you think that Colleges students would be OK if their 50 something parents died of COVID.

I don’t know which teens and colleges students you know, but most of them are generally willing to undergo some hardship to keep a roof over their head and food on their plates. In fact, most of the teens and colleges students that I know would be devastated if their carelessness killed their parents of grandparents.

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1450

And we won’t know if the last two are true for a while.

1451

There’s a lot of talk above about comparison of states in regards to Covid. What worked, what didn’t work, which approach was better. Opening up or shutting down (of course that discussion also revolved around politics). The reality is it’s very hard to compare one state to another in different regions for many different reasons. This virus has basically done what it wanted regardless of individual state responses and mandates. Different regions of the country have suffered at different times because of the way the virus spreads but all have suffered irregardless of their mandates

Some have stated that case numbers here or there are over or under reported. Perhaps that’s true. Harder to manipulate are hospitalization numbers per capita. That should be an easy metric to show what is truly happening with virus spread and mitigation techniques.

I pulled up some data regarding individual state hospitalization rates and while I didn’t go through them all I did look at the four most populous states. I think most would agree that both California and New York were much more locked down than Texas and Florida this past winter but when you look at the hospitalizations it seems like the locked down states didn’t fare any better and actually probably ended up a bit worse.

We can try to make it seem like certain states and their policies/politics made a huge difference in what this virus did, but is that really the case? I’d say it’s more likely that the virus still circulated regardless of state imposed restrictions and I don’t see where a case can be made that one state’s approach was actually more effective at stopping the spread. Otherwise, I would think, states with strict restrictions and widespread compliance should have fared much better.

It seems like the only thing that is making a real impact on this virus is the readily available vaccine. According to experts we don’t need a 100%, fully vaccinated population to reach “herd immunity”. We do need a high percentage, and I believe we are close to that percentage between those that have acquired a natural infection and vaccinated individuals. There’s always going to be some reluctant people. Perhaps instead of criticizing them for their personal choices we should understand that we don’t need everyone fully vaccinated and just focus on getting as many on board as we can. Once the numbers are high enough for “herd immunity” it won’t matter much who didn’t get the vaccine or why they chose not to.

Fully vaccinated here along with my entire family In case that was a question.

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1452

I will concede that the death rates among seniors in FL appear to be lower than those in CA, but my original criticism of your numbers was your claim that

and I stand by my original reply which that that is not accurate. Again, twice as many red states as blue states are above the median number of deaths per million.

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1453

My nephew (15) got covid in January. My brother is an EMT so was one of the first to get the vaccine and Nephew could safely stay with him.

I think it was about March when nephew started getting headaches and now has been diagnosed with chronic migraines. Maybe it is just a coincidence and he’d have the migraines anyway, but either way it is not fun for him.

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Maybe so, but again, in the parts of NY we traveled to masking certainly wasn’t popular among a large percent of the population. I know at least one person who never even owned a mask or changed what he did in life - going to work, shopping, etc. It doesn’t matter what the state overall did if the people didn’t care.

It takes people to care for other people. Rules will get some to comply, but in a situation like this if all don’t comply the results will show it. At that point it’s just luck of the draw with where the virus goes and who the super spreaders were.

In FL my aunt and uncle insisted upon going out to eat daily. They always wore masks except when seated and eating and tried for tables away from others. Then there was this one day when my uncle told me they were at Golden Corral and an unmasked lady walked right past him coughing. A few weeks later he died and my aunt lived. I seriously don’t think that was a coincidence. One can blame him for going out to eat, but the lady certainly didn’t care about others considering she went out unmasked with symptoms.

I definitely share the belief that our country is better off because at least some folks cared about their fellow humans whether it was required by law or not. If no one had it’d have been far worse.

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1455

DH has been using the same family doctor for years (MD, military background), His MD does not want his patients getting the vaccine. He even invites you to remove your mask in the treatment rooms once the door is closed. He doesn’t speak out publicly (we have an out of work relationship with him as well) but has been keeping in close contact with his peers both from his military days and med school days. They are scattered across the globe and with whatever he’s learning from them he doesn’t want his patients or friends getting the vaccine.

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1456

Yes, parts of New York are quite red, and when downstate’s numbers were going down theirs were going up. Where I live (NYC inner suburbs) mask wearing started early and has continued. Vaccinated people haven’t needed to wear masks inside for a while, but nearly everyone I see at City Hall keeps their mask on, ditto the grocery store. Even outside I’m surprised how many are still masking up. (Supposedly about 63% vaccinated in the County.)

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1457

Because:

Basically, you can’t have it both ways. You cannot claim that companies require long term follow up to see whether infertility is a side effect, but on the other hand, you seem inclined to accept people claim’s of infertility within the same short time period.

Personal anecdotes with little to no context are not only not data, they are false data.

If I tell you about a person who died horrible after eating seafood, but neglect to say that they died in a car accident, that is a false data point in a study of the dangers of seafood.

Time and again, these anecdotes of Terrible Things That Happen After Vaccines (COVID or other) turn out to be such false data points. Others are entirely made up.

Again, we have a great experiment going on, with people who received a vaccination. In Israel, there are 2.2 million people who got their first Pfizer shot 5 months ago, and over 330,000 who got their second shot 5 months ago. There are 200,000 people who got their first shot almost 6 months ago.

The only actual serious side effects that may be related to the Pfizer vaccine are about 120 cases of myocarditis out of 5,000,000 vaccinated people and 10,000,000 shots (half of the cases were after the first shot, and half after the second shot.

Not only was that side effect not hidden, it was reported extensively and is being subjected to serious research.

Fact is that, in the one case in which there were possible serious side effects from one of the vaccines, use of that vaccine was halted for a month, because 6 individuals, of the 7,000,000 who received the vaccines, reported blood clots. Fewer than 1/1,000,000 had a POTENTIAL side effect, and the vaccine’s use was paused.

Yet the Facebook rumor and lie mill claims that people are falling like flies from side effects of the vaccines, and the “government is trying to cover it up”.

The groups who were shut down are part of those rumor and lie mills. These are the same sort of rumor mills which push QAnon conspiracies, and they are being shut down for the same reasons. In fact, in many cases these are the exact same lie mills that produce the QAnon conspiracies:

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1458

With all due respect, physicians are the same as other people. They have different ideas and you can find support for any argument you can have.

Like the doctor who said that vaccines caused autism which has been proven to not be the case. But he believed that and persuaded an entire movement. Doesn’t make it correct.

For every doctor who doesn’t think vaccines are necessary (and has his patients remove their masks in his presence), you will find literally 1,000’s that think otherwise.

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1459

I’d be super curious to know what sort of actual experience they have vs just hearsay being spread (likely similar news sources). The doctors my guy works with are on the floor with Covid patients. His GF helps them in rehab for weeks/months afterward where some die anyway even after they conquered Covid - and they most certainly aren’t all elderly unless being over 40 counts as elderly. Those who die are often dying of strokes and things they had no record of prior to Covid. These folks in the trenches always get super angry at self-proclaimed “expert” doctors pretending they know more than they do when they aren’t even on the floor with the disease on a daily basis.

I’ve listened to news sources on TV that I bet they listen to. Anytime I’ve heard a doctor on there, their experience and background have nothing to do with the current pandemic. Granted they’re doctors, but a surgeon or similar doesn’t see the same things. It’s sad.

If there’s one big thing I’ve learned from both my military background and S’s medical background it’s that neither profession is necessarily correlated with being able to sift through the facts. They’re as human as anyone else and can believe what they want to believe, often not believing anything they don’t see with their own eyes. Then some use their title to make their views seem superior - no data needed or just cherry picked data.

Our local newspaper prints the anti-mask and anti-Covid stuff our local legislator spouts all the time. He pretty much always uses his, “I was a career officer in the military and…” for anything he says. One of the best letters to the editor I ever read was from someone who concluded, “Oh, and by the way, I was a career officer in the military too. It doesn’t mean my thoughts are any better than the next person’s, but I just thought I’d say it.”

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1460

Gotta admit, I’d be leaving any doctor who felt that way. I’d question their judgment on many things medically. I just had a reminder call today from my dentist for my appt next week. They still require masks in their waiting area even if one is vaccinated. I haven’t been wearing a mask for 3 weeks now, but I’ll have no problem putting one on there. It makes sense that they prefer safe to sorry.

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1461

Excellent post! Thanks for summarizing everything so well. I wanted to do it myself but got too busy. So I appreciate your effort.

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1462

I’m not accepting the claim. I’m saying that it should be acknowledged that it could be an issue, should be investigated and not sweep under the rug as a lie. Just because someone tells about their side effects doesn’t make them a kook.

I am concerned about fertility issues for my kids. They’re fully vaccinated but the possibility that there could be those types of issues for them in the future is concerning.

Glad to hear you’re admitting we are participating in an experiment. Might explain why some aren’t is rushing to be first. Personally I have faith that enough people will get the vaccine to reach herd immunity. However, there are clearly stumbling blocks, both here and more importantly abroad, to reaching that goal.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/curevacs-covid-19-vaccine-misses-efficacy-goal-mass-trial-2021-06-16/

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