<p>The results are pretty much in at my daughter's school and the news wasn't as cheerful as in previous years. Out of a class of 200 there hasn't been one surprise 'reach' hit. Safety schools played a much bigger roll for this class, and most kids were relieved to have gotten into a 'likely'.</p>
<p>I'm curious if your school saw similar results compared with previous classes?</p>
<p>That’s interesting, because the number of high school graduates is supposedly declining.</p>
<p>[Table</a> 12. Actual and projected numbers for high school graduates, by control of school: School years 1996–97 through 2021–22](<a href=“http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projections/projections2021/tables/table_12.asp]Table”>http://nces.ed.gov/programs/projections/projections2021/tables/table_12.asp)</p>
<p>But perhaps college cost pressures are causing more students to concentrate applications on less expensive options (e.g. in-state publics and very selective privates with good financial aid) causing the competition for spots at those schools to increase.</p>
<p>On CC it seems to be the year to tell a kid to take the cheaper option over the dream school, if it means debt to do so. Previous to this, it seemed to me like many posters leaned the other way.</p>
<p>2011 was bad for my son’s school. A definite decline in the top name schools in terms of destinations reported for graduating seniors. Last year’s was much better and from what I can gather, this year is better too, though the list is not out yet. I thought it was just because I had a horse in the race in 2011, but the counselors said it was truly a bad year for that class for some reason. Very apparent when looking at the lists. But I don’t know how it worked nationwide. Same number of spaces pretty much each year, so it should work out with the population changes for 18/19 year olds, but the mileage will vary at different schools.</p>
<p>I don’t see much difference. Our school historically sends very few kids to top schools - no Ivies other than Cornell and one went to Penn years ago. A few to Duke and Chicago, and lately a few to WashU. This year one senior is headed to Williams and another to Duke, a few to Chicago. For most kids, their reach is Penn State, and they are delighted to get in, often they have to attend the summer session first.</p>
<p>While the number of U.S. high school graduates is declining (very, very slightly), the overall number of kids graduating from U.S. high schools does not really have much to do with how competitive admissions are at the most selective institutions.</p>
<p>(a) The number of U.S. high school graduates going to college has not declined.</p>
<p>(b) The number of foreign students going to college in the U.S. also continues to increase. Economic growth in China and India especially has expanded the market for quality U.S. colleges.</p>
<p>(c) “Selective colleges” is not the same as “all colleges.” Only about half of all colleges reject a third or more of applicants, and only about 3% of colleges reject two-thirds or more of their applicants. College enrollment could decline overall, and still remain steady at the most selective institutions.</p>
<p>For all those reasons, the most selective colleges have generally seen increases in the number and quality of applications they receive.</p>
<p>@ucbalum</p>
<p>As I see it, the chart in your link isn’t really declining. We reached the peak (3.3M-ish) and the projection shows the number of HS seniors will hover there for a decade. Also, PapaChicken’s thread (<a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-admissions/1445310-total-applications-growth-decline-class-2017-a.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/college-admissions/1445310-total-applications-growth-decline-class-2017-a.html</a>) seems to indicate that applications were up this year at many top colleges.</p>
<p>Our class saw fewer acceptances from top privates and publics this year so the decline doesn’t appear to be economy based.</p>
<p>Like Cptofthehouse’s experience, it could very well be that it was just our school that had an off year. I’m curious if we are alone or do we have company this year?</p>
<p>We have to wait until all of the waitlists work their way out. There have been some crazy waitlist situations I’ve seen where kids clear one waitlist, so they opt out of their acceptance and accept the school that accepted them from the WL and then are accepted to yet another school off its waitlist. I saw some kids at the same schools hoppiing from one school to the other with some of the same schools involved. Made my head spin, and I can’t tell what’s going on here.</p>
<p>But if you think about it, with fewer kids in the college app pool, but more applications going out, with the more selective schools getting more apps, but with about the same number of seats, some funny business gonna happen here. </p>
<p>When the dust all clears, unless fewer seats are available the same number of kids are being accepted to those selective colleges. But that is an overall statistic. If more internationals students are getting accepted, that would change the picture.</p>
<p>Another trend I’ve been told about is that more kids are applying ED. That means it’s old news by spring. So have to look at the matriculation lists of your school and compare to prior years to make any sense of whether more or fewer kids are being accepted to select colleges from your particular high school.</p>
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<p>That’s my point – perhaps students are concentrating applications on the most selective generous-with-financial-aid privates and the in-state publics in a quest for less expensive options (causing those schools to become more selective under the increased volume of applications), while expensive-but-not-generous-with-financial-aid privates are being applied to less (and less likely to be chosen by students who are admitted).</p>
<p>redpoint - I know many of us are aware that interest rates are going up on loans. The way I read this, when combined with recent increases in media coverage of student loan debt and the continuing underemployment/unemployment picture, the conversation has shifted. Even the subsidized loans originating after July this year will double 9I believe the interest rate rises from 3.4 to 6.8%). I do think it’s the question to be asking: will you earn enough to pay off that debt, and if not, what other options do you have? </p>
<p>One strategy for students with great or even good stats is to apply to colleges which offer merit to those falling in its top 25% range. Those might have been academic safeties under other conditions, but I think they may have functioned this year as financial safeties. At least for us, they did. DS wasn’t likely to be competitive for many (if not most) of the meet-need schools, but he did qualify for merit $$ at many just below.</p>
<p>Yes, onesonmom, that is the strategy we are going for also! I hope everyone isn’t onto it . . . probably just the obsessive and informed, like cc parents.</p>
<p>I’ll be curious when our school publishes the students’ choices to see if they differ from previous years. But in our family, we encouraged our d to apply to matches/safeties so she would have more options.</p>
<p>Onesmom - “One strategy for students with great or even good stats is to apply to colleges which offer merit to those falling in its top 25% range.”</p>
<p>That was our strategy this year with D13…and it worked out well. She did receive merit from a number of schools and is very happy with her decision. She did get into a couple of non-Ivy very selective schools/programs but chose the one where she felt was the best overall fit and where she felt she could be successful…and best of all, it came with money!</p>
<p>JHS in post 6 hit the nail on the head.</p>
<p>Students are now applying for top schools everywhere in the country, which is making it tougher for students who have historically been located near regional powerhouses. My son’s high school, in Chicago, used to send 5-6 students per year to Northwestern and 3-4 to UChicago. By 2011, only my son and one other got admitted to Northwestern and I’m not sure if anyone got into UChicago (my son didn’t apply). As acceptance rates at these schools continue to plunge, it may turn out that even the val and sal will be headed to the state flagship.</p>
<p>In my son’s competitive public school, none of the boys got into their reach ivy schools. It is a banner year for girls going for STEM fields at ivies, though.</p>
<p>My daughter has received at least 2 snail-mail pieces from U. of Chicago for a year now including nerd glasses. She’s a junior. I can’t imagine why–it’s extremely unlikely that she’d get in there. Oh wait…</p>
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<p>It’s not just the girls. At Brown, that old liberal “hippie school,” nearly 60% of the admits plan on majoring in either the physical or biological sciences and only 18% in the humanities. The times they are a’changin’!</p>
<p>I read on the Swarthmore website that engineering is the most popular major listed for admitted students, followed by biology and undecided. Still plenty of humanities/social sciences though!</p>
<p>@ LoremIpsum, yes this is what we saw this year too, as compared with previous years our regional powerhouse colleges (UCLA, USC, Cal) were very stingy with large envelopes. We also had zero ivy acceptances (except for 3 athletic acceptances) compared with an average of 5 or so per year (excluding athletes) in previous years. UChicago, Duke, Rice, went zero, zero, zero. Ouch.</p>
<p>So it was an unusually off year for our school.</p>
<p>@ UCBalum, sorry I missed your earlier point… I understand now.</p>