What are my chances of getting into Duke, BC, etc.?

Schools I am thinking of Applying to:
Duke, Notre Dame, BC, URochester, Villanova, Davidson, Holy Cross, UMass Amherst (I am up for anything though so if you have suggestions, lmk)

Intended Major: Physics (top choice), (or) Aerospace Engineering, Mathematics, Chemistry, Chemical Engineering

Grad School: I want to get my masters in Aerospace Engineering currently, but this might change as I take differing courses

To give a rundown of my stats:

SAT: Haven’t taken yet, but my practice tests range from 1370-1550 with a mean of 1460. I am planning on taking it twice to get a good superscore. My math is generally 760-800 and my English is generally 680-720. Aiming for 1500+
ACT: Also haven’t taken yet, but I have taken 2 practice tests and have gotten 33s both times. Superscored, a 35. Also planning on taking it twice. Aiming for 34+
Unweighted GPA: 3.95/4.00
Weighted GPA: We don’t have weighted GPAs
Class Rank: We don’t have ranks, but I think I am around 4th out of around 60
IB Diploma Candidate: Taking HL Math, Business, and Chemistry. SL Spanish, English, and Physics (along with CAS, EE, TOK). Have a predicted 6 in each of them, except Spanish which is a 7, but these are realistically going to be 4-6s
Awards: My school doesn’t give any awards, so I don’t have anything
Extracurriculars: Varsity Cross Country (4 years, captain 3 years, All-Star Sr. Year), Varsity Basketball (4 years, captain 2 years), Boston Children’s Hospital Patient Housing Volunteering (40ish hours), Environmental Club (Cleanups around Boston biweekly; 40ish hours), Running Club (4 years, leader 3 years), Chess Club (4 years, co-president 1 year), Rescuing Leftover Cuisine Volunteering (5 hours), Social Justice Club (2 years) Neuroscience Club (2 years)
Essays: Probably going to be good-great, I am a very good writer, but I just need to figure out ideas. Have a sob story, but don’t want to write about that since that just feels cheap.
Rec Letters: Probably going to have really good ones. I am very well-liked by my teachers, and many teachers have come up to me asking if they can write it.
Other Info: I am a white male, applying for financial aid, in a single-parent household, have 3 brothers who have already been through college, and we have a household income of $85,000

Definitely write about the sob story IMO… it’s quite competitive out here and for the top-tier schools, they make or break applicants. You have the stats + EC’s to get in anywhere on that list, you just need to pour a lot of effort into each application.

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I think you have a chance at any of these schools. Obviously, UMass Amherst as your affordable safety, but you might get in anywhere.

I don’t know about SAT prep, but my kid took a practice ACT and got in the low 30’s for it, which was still better than his PSAT-predicted SAT score. He then prepped himself for it, maybe a total of 60 hours over a few months, using the free, legally downloadable retired ACT’s that are in the public domain, findable on the internet, and also in their Official Guide (you can buy a cheap one a couple of years old, because they just republish mostly the same tests). Basically, whenever he had time, he’d take a section or two of an old test, under timed circumstances, grade it, and go back and re-teach himself the math he needed to, or reviewed the grammar concept, or became familiar with the necessary data interpretation skill, or learned how to pick the BEST, most obvious right answer, from the test maker’s viewpoint, for the reading comprehension section. He got a 36 (34 in math, 36 in everything else). Afterward, once he’d begun Calc BC, he said that if he’d already had Calc, he would have probably been able to get a 36 in math, too, because even though the test supposedly doesn’t require Calc, knowing Calc would have made it possible to do certain problems faster (there’s a LOT of time pressure in the math section). The science section, as you know, is not science - it’s data interpretation, and in that, practice using old tests definitely makes perfect. There is a review on Amazon for the Official Guide that tells you which books are best for reviewing for ACT, if you need them, but it doesn’t sound as if you need any of them - you just need to use practice tests to prep.

With a household income of 85K, you need to target private schools that are generous with financial aid. You’ve already got a very nice record, and if you can get a spectacular standardized test score, it could help to set you apart from the crowd, and maybe make it possible for you to get into a top school that’s generous with fin aid.

About the essay - get your school counselor to cover the sob story in his/her letter, saying, “This kid has managed through these very difficult circumstances to continue to achieve at a very high level.” That way, you’re not crying that they should have pity on you, but the committee hears the story. Meanwhile, you write your essay in a way that SHOWS, rather than TELLS the admission committee what you want to convey. My son made several attempts, all very different, none felt right, and finally, his father asked him, “What do you LOVE? What makes you happy?” Son replied that music, playing ping pong with his father and big brother, and his intended field of study - which wasn’t ping pong or music - were the things that made him happy. He then crafted an essay around these three elements, and the commonality of them, and the concept of work vs play, and the overlap/interchangeability of work/play. In the essay, it SHOWED, rather than told, how hard he had worked at music since 3rd grade. It SHOWED, rather than told, about his love for his family. It showed his budding interest in his intended field of study. We thought it was a pretty good essay. There was a serious sob story background, but he let the school counselor put that in her letter - never mentioned it in his essay, other than maybe tangentially.

You have good ECs, sounds as if your counselor could write you a great letter. Get to know the counselor who’s writing the cover letter. Make appointments to go talk with them, to ask for advice about where to apply for what you want. It’s not that you necessarily need that advice - it’s that you want the counselor to get to know you, and your sob story background, and your ambitions, and like you, and want to write you a great letter.

The one part of your application that is lacking is awards. It would be wonderful if you had some kind of regional, statewide, or better yet, national recognition of your talent or achievement, in any of your areas of interest - either academic or extracurricular. You say you write well - can you enter some competitions? I know that Covid has made in-person anything difficult, but there are some competitions/awards that don’t require in-person meets or competitions. You might want to start a separate thread for advice on what you might be able to enter, soon, so that you might have some kind of recognition/award to put on the application.

Best of luck. You sound like a great applicant, will do well wherever you go, even if it’s ‘only’ UMass Amherst, which is a great place - lucky for you that you have that in-state safety.

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Good advice re standardized tests. My son took it cold and got a 31. Studied over months while test after test was cancelled. Took it twice in 2 weeks and got a 34 with a superscore 35. Practice makes a huge difference on ACT as so much is timing.

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You put so much thought into that response, thank you so much!

No, no, and no. The essay is to tell a college something about yourself that is not on the rest of the application. However, it has to be something that will make them want you. You are not looking for sympathy or empathy, you are looking for interest. AOs get so many sob stories from applicants who think that admissions is a competition between applicants to see who has the most heart-wrenching story that the only tear that these essays bring are from boredom.

The essay should be about “why me”. Show passion, intelligence, focus, humor, etc, what you will add to the school, and why you will be a success at the school. A story of a personal tragedy does none of those.

if you do talk about a personal tragedy, it should be in the context of how you show strength and resilience. However, this is a lot harder than people think. Most end up describing the tragedy (not helping, and violating the “show, don’t tell” rule), and then add at the end, “this taught me a lot and now I am a stronger person”.

Your tragedy is important and central to your life. For the AO, it is one more story of thousands or tens of thousands.

@JohnGad You look like a pretty strong applicant, and congratulations of doing so much in high school and doing it well.

I would expect that Duke and ND are high reaches, especially Duke for Engineering, though your chances are higher than average
Davidson is a solid reach, but you have pretty good chances
BC, Rochester, Villanova, and Holy Cross are low reaches or high matches, but I would be really surprised if you didn’t get at least one admission there, more likely two or more (but getting none is also a possibility, so you need a safety).

UMass Amherst for engineering is like the BC, Rochester, etc., group - low reach, but good chances. For physics (so CNS), it would likely be a safety for you.

All this is assuming that the colleges stay test optional or that you get SAT/ACT scores as you predicted.

Also - if you need financial support, Villanova and Holy Cross may be reaches, since you are dependent on also winning competitive scholarships. Davidson has the best financial aid, since it is full need met, While Duke, BC, ND, and Rochester are full need met, but with loans.

UMass Amherst will depend on what scholarships and financial aid you are eligible for, since you cannot likely afford full pay, even as an in-state student (if you are in-state).

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taking both the sat & act is unnecessary, pick the one you are better at & focus on it.

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■■■■ can happen, so I would rather take both twice to secure a good superstore in at least one, and if in both, even better.

Got it, thank you!