What are my chances of getting into MIT or Stanford?

I’m in 10th grade btw so ill mention things I think will happen by the end of my junior year.
Current accomplishments
-I am in calculus BC(2 years ahead in math),
-got a 5 last year on AP test for CS
-Wrote a report about AI with friends(it’s not a huge thing, but still decent paper with quite a lot of content. length was 20 pages)

Future accomplishments(hopefully)
-Be part of NHS
-Should have a GPA of 4.71 by end of junior year(probably top 40 in my class, which is probably top 5%)
-I’m probably going to make AIME this year, will try to make USAMO junior year. Worst case scenario, I never make USAMO and my highest AIME score is around 7-9
-Should be at USACO gold. Worst case, I’m at silver
-Should know Java, Python, and C++(Already know java, will learn C++ next year at school, have to learn python by myself)
-Have ACT score of 35(worst case 34. At around 32 rn)
-Have SAT Math II score of 800
-Have SAT Chem score of 730+
-Have SAT physics score of 750+

Non-academic ECs
-Marching band, should make drumline next year
-Boy Scouts, should be Eagle scout next year

give 2 answers, one assuming I make USAMO, and one assuming I don’t(cuz its the only thing I’m not basically a 100% sure will come through). Also, I’m applying early to Stanford, and my major is going to be CS.