Chances of Stanford or MIT

I’m in 10th grade btw so ill mention things I think will happen by the end of my junior year.
Current accomplishments
-I am in calculus BC(2 years ahead in math),
-got a 5 last year on AP test for CS
-Wrote a report about AI with friends(it’s not a huge thing, but still decent paper with quite a lot of content. length was 20 pages)

Future accomplishments(hopefully)
-Be part of NHS
-Should have a GPA of 4.71 by end of junior year(3.92 unweighted, Probably top 40 in my class, which is probably top 5%)
-I’m probably going to make AIME this year, will try to make USAMO junior year. Worst case scenario, I never make USAMO and my highest AIME score is around 7-9
-Should be at USACO gold. Worst case, I’m at silver
-Should know Java, Python, and C++(Already know java, will learn C++ next year at school, have to learn python by myself)
-Have ACT score of 35(worst case 34. At around 32 rn)
-Have SAT Math II score of 800
-Have SAT Chem score of 730+
-Have SAT physics score of 750+

Non-academic ECs
-Marching band, should make drumline next year
-Boy Scouts, should be Eagle scout next year

give 2 answers, one assuming I make USAMO, and one assuming I don’t(cuz its the only thing I’m not basically a 100% sure will come through). Also, I’m applying early to Stanford, and my major is going to be CS.

You are in 10th grade so it’s impossible to know. You need to improve your class rank to have a fighting chance.

For those schools, I would aim for perfect to near-perfect scores in all your subject tests.