What are my chances

Currently I’m a transfer student at a community college with a 3.324 GPA. I’m really hoping to get into UNC at Chapel Hill as a junior transfer next fall. I’m an instate student as well. I know my GPA is lower than expected but it’s because I’ve had some difficulties my first semester of college, and I will explain that in detail to the university in my admission essay. My highschool GPA was a 3.57 what are my chances of being accepted?