I have to shake my head at some of these examples. At mid to large sized companies, most people’s odds of making it into the ranks of the top 0.01% as the CEO are the same as their odds of winning the lottery, with or without a college degree. Newspaper jobs are in a dying industry and being decimated, before AI disruption starts.
You can shake your head, but there are still people who are getting jobs as columnists (D2’s BF is one at a major newspaper with a fairly high salary). I only listed few examples, but there are scientists, teachers, wedding planners…who could not be replaced by AI. Radiologist may be replace or optimized, but not doctors at this time.
What newspaper? If you’re looking at the regular opinion columnists at the NY Times, for example, I count a total of 15 people, one of whom has a Nobel prize. I’m sure those people make good money, but that’s not a lot of jobs. There needs to be advice for people who aren’t in the top 0.01% of their field.
Surely there is more than one newspaper in this country, and I am sure 24 hr news channels need to have people to write all of those opinion. Morning Joe’s 10 min monologue everyday can’t be his own. What about Saturday night live? Who writes those? Movie scripts - do you think some machine could do it? A machine would need to know what is love, sorrow, heartache, disappointment in order to write some of those scripts. And music? I think the list could go on. I am sorry those very few examples I gave didn’t convey what I wanted to say.
Let’s assume you are right that there would be very few percentage of people who wouldn’t be replaced by AI, where would you want your kid to be?
So let’s multiply the 15 number per newspaper/station by 20 major newspapers/networks, and put it at 300 people. For comparison, there are 1696 people on the active NFL roster.
I would argue most of that can’t be taught in college, although it might be refined some. Jay Leno was naturally funny. He didn’t learn that in college. Many great musicians never went to college.
@mamom I don’t object to the idea of joining a trade as being a great path, more the idea that people who have no idea how competitive and closed it is regularly offering it up as an easy alternative to college. People regularly tout the shortage of tradespeople when tradespeople can’t get work.
@rickle1 I think it’s entirely to be expected that students would graduate and not know what they want to do. If you are in a pre-professional program, it’s pretty straightforward but studying at college often has zilch to do with potential careers.
Not quite sure how you are doing your numbers. How many writers do you think they have per show? How many shows do each of those stations have? Outside of news channels, how many shows and movies are there? It is late, and I am not sure where you are going with this.
I think the problem with being in the writing business is less AI (although that is a thing) and more to do with outsourcing and the freelance economy taking over. There will always be someone who is willing to work for almost nothing.
My best friend was at a major newspaper for 20 years (and has a Pulitzer). Then she took a university position but she could never be a prof because she doesn’t have a MS/PhD. Now she’s in public radio and loves it. She’s back to the politics she liked. She’s been posting a lot of entry level jobs lately. They don’t pay a lot but do pay a living wage and give good experience but the newbes have to put in the time, the late hours, follow the stories. If she was willing to more, she could move up but she’s happy to spend the rest of her working life where she is.
Because you could make really good money being a plumber if you’re willing to do the work.
At a top level, my issue is how do you advise the typical college student, who may lack both the innate talent and connections to get those creative type jobs you mention. On news specifically, newspapers, outside the top 5-10 major newspapers, have been dying a slow death for decades, http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/06/01/circulation-and-revenue-fall-for-newspaper-industry/, and the majority of news employees were never regular opinion columnists at major newspapers to begin with. Cable news is picking up some, but not a lot of the slack, and I see that as a threatened industry too as more people cut the cord.
I think you are focusing too much on writers, not thinking about other professions, like scientists, marketers, bankers, etc. You are also taking it too literal. When we say it is hard to replace a CEO, it is more about jobs similar to a CEO. There are many people within an organization who perform work similar to CEO that can’t be replaced by AI.
Newspapers may be dying, but we will always need good writers, I don’t think that’s going to change. D2’s BF does work for the OpEd at a major newspaper, and he also freelance for other channels. His siblings are also in the similar business and one of them is a published author. All of them went to top tier schools. I do not think they would have their positions without a college and advanced degree.
Go to college are you including trade schools? I have been in many manufacturing facilities throughout the nation gulfcoast (oil/gas), Nestle, P&G, Coca-Cola, Smuckers, Ford, etc etc
With a trade even if non-traditional many of these technicians are making 70-100k/yr+. The underwater welders I met in Grand Isle, Louisiana were making 150-180k/yr and this was 2013.
Trades you can make a very good living by owning your own business or even working for a company, but that has been talked about already. Even AT&T and Verizon installers/troubleshooters are making $23-$24/hr with little to no experience (go through a training program) with overtime and holiday pay they routinely make 60-70k too with a company vehicle.
With so much focus on “college experience”, “finding yourself”, “fill in the blank”, many kids are graduating with no real skillsets to get jobs unless they were degree specific: engineering, nursing, teaching, etc, or go to grad school.
My daughter still studies at Starbucks and another coffee shop and both have kids who have their undergraduate degrees and are trying to “figure out” what they will do because they cannot get jobs. One has a degree in Music plays some instruments and the other has a degree in Anthropology both female not that it matters.
Shameless plug for plumbers lol. Good friend is eye doctor and the spouse started out as a plumber’s apprentice. Fast forward 20 years now he owns his own business about 20 employees and is doing extremely well. Very well off!
OP, you’re already in college. What’s the point of your question? Idle curiosity? Are you contemplating dropping out?
I think some kids should go to trade school rather than traditional 4 yr college. We do not not promote it as much in this country. We do need more plumbers - maybe they wouldn’t charge as much if we have more of them.
@oldfort I agree trade schools do need to be promoted more
I know a lot of artists, most of them can’t live off art income, and have to teach. Graphic designers were particular hard hit as many people do their own graphics now. A guy I know who did a lot of book covers used to have a steady job with an educational publisher and now does freelance work for much less money. He had to give up his studio to work out of his home.
If my parents had been rich, I probably would have not gone to college but learned what I needed to learn in 1.5 years and moved on gaining experience and started a company early. I could see for certain business building oriented people, college could take up too much time. I tend to think college system offers a nice safe haven transition for kids before the real world, but for business savvy and impatient kids, it might just be not worth it.
Trade schools do not necessarily have good placement rates, either.
I have a degree in journalism so feel compelled to address this.
First - a radiologist IS a doctor who has been through undergraduate, medical school, and a residency program.
Second - I’m glad your kid’s friend was lucky enough to find a job as a columnist - especially one with a high salary - but this is a job that is in very high demand among journalists who are getting laid of left and right from newspapers around the country. There has been a 37 percent reduction in newspaper staffs around the country in the past 10 years. And, as newspapers continue to merge and/or die, even fewer will be needed in the future. Newspaper readership is currently at its lowest level since 1940 (about 31M today v. 32M in 1940 from a high of about 63M in 1989/1990, and very few local newspapers are still locally owned. For example, Gatehouse Media owns more than 130 dailies and 650 community publications, in 555 local markets in 36 states.