What are the chances for someone to be admitted to CALS without receiving a "likely" letter?

What are the chances for someone to be admitted to CALS without receiving a “likely” letter?

Most people don’t receive likely letters, despite how College Confidential sometimes makes it seem. I didn’t even know they were a thing until I read threads on here.

Considering that likely letters are sent out to about 1% of the applicant pool (not counting athletes), your chances are still the same – it’s as if the likely letters didn’t exist.