What do the numbers tell us about the shotgun approach to selective admissions?

Applying to College
1

Anybody have any stories about getting on the order of a dozen rejections from selective schools and then getting an admission to one through, let’s call it “persistence in numbers”?

I’m not talking about submitting a large number of reaches and then getting accepted to a match. I’m talking about situations in which obvious quantity paid off in admission to what was obviously a reach school.

If admission chances are, say, 10% for the entire pool, then a deferred applicant who isn’t EA successful might be looking at chances down in the low single digit percentages. Can a student like that do a dozen or two dozen applications and hope to get a cumulative break even chance of admission?

If you get deferred at one Ivy, for example, is there any marginal value in quickly banging out applications to 20 more of the same?

2

Many variables.

Is the applicant competitive? Have anything that may look unique? How high are stats? Great essays that show passion, knowledge of, and demonstrated interest in a school can push you over the edge at some schools, but can you really bang 20 of those out? Can you demonstrate interest to 20 schools?

Keep in mind that there is a big variation of difficulty of entrance even among the elites.

3

Friend got rejected from all the Ivies except for Brown. Also got into U Chicago. Denied at Northwestern, Wash U, Tufts, Vanderbilt, Duke, Rice and UVA. The big shocker was that he got into Stanford - where he currently attends.

3/17.

4

Applicant falls into “deferred” class.
Let’s say one “sort of” national award.
Stats are not as high as wished, but some would die for them.
GPA 3.98 (Oops).
Essays sort of…not boring, but meh.

Would applying in the top 20 or 30 require all new essays, or could some be substantially recycled?

5

Sure, you can recycle, but I feel that doing the research (looking at results threads and essays and websites) to see what’s looked or is special at each school would help.

Just don’t mail it in on any of the apps. When writing the apps, the applicants has to be in the state of mind of “this is the school for me”. Maybe devote 2-3 days to each.

“Meh” essays are not good. If there’s something that stands out on the resume, some schools may overlook nondescript essays, but that doesn’t bode well. Especially in the RD round when there are so many applicants for each spot at all of the elites so schools are looking more for reasons to deny than to admit.

But hey, your chances would be improved with more apps; just maybe not as much as hoped. Really making 8-10 apps shine is a better strategy, IMO. Really hard to make 20 apps all shine.

But a “sort of” national award is the type of thing that may catch someone’s eye (and if you’re indifferent between the 20 schools, you just need one “someone”).

What schools are you looking at? Any of the big schools like UMich/UVa/Cal/Cornell(/UNC/UCLA/UW-Madison/NYU/USC)? ND/Georgetown/Tufts(/WashU/Vandy/CMU/Rochester/CWRU)?

Any LACs?

6

I guess another question is: what is the purpose of this?

What are life/college goals? Because the schools I listed (as well as the colleges that are higher) are pretty different. Yet you could well achive your goals even through attending a less selective school (and the list would be different for someone looking at CS or engineering, for instance).

Also, are you able to afford full pay? Because some of the schools I listed would have poor fin aid (or poor fin aid for OOS).

7

My feeling is that if you are going for the reaches, applying to more schools increases your odds of not being shut out. One has to be a qualified applicant and have something interesting or compelling. I don’t think someone with just good scores, good gpa, typical good ecs would get in unless the essays were spectacular. If you have good but not spectacular grades, getting perfect scores may offset that. Likewise, if you have okay scores, the gpa better be fantastic. If you have one weakness in the application (scores or gpa, etc.), I would increase the number of schools you apply to… but that is just my perspective. I’ve read some people’s opinions that applying to more schools in the top ten does not help you statistically but that doesn’t make sense to me. There is an element of the unpredictable as to who is reading your app and how it strikes that individual and the more exposure you have, I believe the higher your likelihood of success.

8

I’ve already been to school. I’ve been watching the kids go through all this for the last few years.

9

Yeah, but I have to assume applicants can occasionally make it with them.

10

My son’s stats sound similar to what you describe. Nearly perfect GPA, high SAT, etc. His essays were not as spectacular as I would have liked, but they were ok. He insisted on applying to Princeton, Harvard, Stanford, and Dartmouth, not because he has a good chance at any one of them, but because he figured his overall chance of getting into one of the top schools would be increased by applying to a larger number of them. I humored this on the condition that he also apply to a number of safeties and matches. We really need merit aid, so it was important to me that he apply at places like the U of Alabama, that would give him a top merit award. With all of this, he ended up applying to 14 schools, and I can tell you there is a serious down side to this strategy. Showing interest and keeping up with everything at all those schools is a real job. I’m afraid we are going to miss an important deadline or communication from one of the schools. Also, I think my son’s essays might have been better if he didn’t have to write so many of them. I have no idea how all this will play out, but I’d be surprised if he got in at one of the “top schools.” So the short answer to your question is, yes that might be a decent strategy, but try to keep the number of applications as low as possible because it is actually quite tricky to manage so many applications, from start to finish.

11

@JustOneDad:

In the ED round, yes at some schools, if all your stats are high. Or if you have some pretty exceptional achievement/talent/characteristic/hook. Otherwise, why would the most selective colleges admit someone who doesn’t stand out in any way? They have way too many high-stats applicants who don’t otherwise stand out and not enough slots for them.

12

I agree. If you are going to spend the money to apply to all those schools, you should put in the effort to write really stellar essays. My son was under pressure from his school’s college counseling office to finish all his college apps immediately, and we were applying to way too many schools. I think his essays really suffered as a result.

13

Are you referring to having “meh” essays? Is EA the same as ED in that respect?

14

Any of that EA or ED?

Just out of curiosity, what does the total cost for 14 applications run to?

15

to the OP:
In my experience and in my practice, it has never been a successful strategy (the machine gun approach). My students who have applied to 18+ schools have received the same number of acceptances as those who applied, more thoughtfully, to 10 or fewer schools. (i.e., 2 or 3 acceptances per student). And those 2 or 3 were typically to one Ivy (not H, Y, or P), one highly-ranked LAC and, if they also qualify, to a STEM institution (MIT or CalTech).

The essays become diluted after awhile, and sometimes confused. Further, the student tends to develop a major case of burnout, particularly if he or she already as a demanding senior year schedule. With the latest student of mine who did this (18 colleges) what he really had wanted was Yale (dream school), then H. Although he labored tremendously over his H essay, and expressed great enthusiasm for Y and thoughtfulness in that essay, he got into neither. He was a super high-scorer and high achiever in multiple areas, with significant solo athletic awards and academic awards. But he had over-extended himself on his college apps. He also opened several different common app accounts so that he could submit alternate essays to various Ivies.

Clearly this analogy is wanting, but if you had 18 girlfriends, and among those a few favorites, and hoped to land just one of those for marriage – in a land of monogamy – it would be difficult to express exclusive commitment to just one when any of several of them you would fine almost equally exciting. Even passion for an institution is hard to fake. If there are more than several that would appeal to you, all the more difficult to convince yourself, let alone, the institution, that She’s the One.

I know there are outliers: there were two such cases several years ago on CC. One case involved a female from a non-hooked category (also not an ORM) who got into all 8 Ivies. Another was a southeast Asian male who did the same; IIRC, though, poverty/disadvantage was quite a factor for him. But my point is, they do not seem to be typical (also off CC).

16

It’s not like flipping a coin and it eventually lands on heads. The most selective colleges each have a sort they look for- and need. And that’s more than just stats or success by usual hs standards (more AP, prez of some club, etc.) Columbia’s self-image, offerings, environment and pressures are different than Dartmouth’s. If a kid doesn’t have an idea what each college is about and values (and I do mean the hard work of figuring this out,) and if he can’t pull it together in his apps, then potshot won’t help.

The problem with meh essays is the competition is fierce to begin with- tens of thousands of qualified kids, more than enough with good stats. Sending in a meh essay can be a kind of message about judgment. Or, as epiphany notes, “thoughtfulness.” Or the depth of his interest.

(But I don’t think you mean essays- most kids don’t customize the CA essays. I think you mean the supplements- and yes that can be a deal breaker.)

Of course, maybe what doesn’t work for 19 of the 20 schools, does work for one. Or maybe that school needs another male classics kid who also wants to play his tuba and they need a tuba player. Yikes, some complain adcoms operate a lottery-- but these kids who just take a shot at quantity of apps (versus quality) are the ones just throwing a bunch of darts at the dartboard. Not a strong quality for a most competitive environment.

17

@lookingforward
@epiphany

I think there is a big difference between what STEM schools such as CalTech or MIT want in students v crazy schools such as UChicago and then well-rounded schools such as Stanford and Yale. With that said, most schools fall into the last category and so it’s not too hard to reuse essays from one school to another.

For instance:

Stanford: “What matters to you, and why?”
Yale: “What in particular about Yale has influenced your decision to apply?”
USC: "Describe your academic interests and how you plan to pursue them at USC. Please feel free to address your first- and second-choice major selections. "

Stanford: “Stanford students possess an intellectual vitality. Reflect on an idea or experience that has been important to your intellectual development.”
Yale: “What excites you intellectually, really?”

Stanford: “Virtually all of Stanford’s undergraduates live on campus. Write a note to your future roommate that reveals something about you or that will help your roommate – and us – know you better. (”
Yale: “Suite-style living - four to six students sharing a set of rooms - may be an integral part of your Yale College experience. What would you contribute to the dynamic of your suite”

Stanford: “Briefly elaborate on one of your extracurricular activities or work experiences.”
Yale: “In this second essay, please reflect on something you would like us to know about you that we might not learn from the rest of your application, or on something about which you would like to say more. You may write about anything–from personal experiences or interests to intellectual pursuits”
UC: “Tell us about a personal quality, talent, accomplishment, contribution or experience that is important to you. What about this quality or accomplishment makes you proud and how does it relate to the person you are?”
USC:“USC students are known to be involved. Briefly describe a non-academic pursuit (such as service to community or family, a club or sport, or work, etc.,) that best illustrates who you are, and why it is important to you”

Stanford: “What five words best describe you?”
USC: “Describe yourself in three words.”

Although the word limits are different, there is a LOT of overlap between the prompts. Likewise UC Question #1 is very similar to the Common App main essay.

I personally don’t care about applying to every single Ivy but if I was a freshman, and I really wanted a Liberal Arts education, then I would apply to all 8 along with some other reaches. *
8 ivys + 4 UCs + USC + Stanford + Michigan + few CSUs = ~18
Someone applying to East Coast could easily replace my USs/CSUs with other local uni.

18

You’d be surprised, bomerr. Now we’re talking about the supp questions. Stanford and Yale are good examples because they each make it clear (if one truly digs in) what they value. And despite overlap, there are differences. Any seeming similarities in the questions aren’t enough to go generic.

Eg, many kids think S wants entrepreneurs. (A few knowledgeable posters have noted how S is recently trying to shift some of this balance.) BUT, what S has stated is that they like kids who are ‘entrepreneurial about their educations.’ (I’d have to look up the exact words.) That’s a different attribute. And Yale has a very clear “what we look for.” This is all more than, say, using 3 of the 5 Stanford words in the USC supp.

Btw, I don’t see uncovering what a school values as"manipulating." I consider it savvy. Many kids really don’t seem to have a deeper knowledge of what certain colleges offer them- and what they are expected to offer the colleges.

And bomerr, just by being able to provide those quotes, you have clearly done some vetting.

19

If you’re shooting at a duck flying at very high altitude, it doesn’t matter how many shot pellets are in that cartridge if you’ve got a short-range rifle

20

@‌lookingforward

I feel that the secret sauce to college admissions is coming of likable as a human being. Like a good movie, this means resonating with the same emotions and feelings that all humans share. With regard to this aspect, Stanford, Yale, Columbia and certain other universities do a really great job in allowing an applicant to shine. Other universities, quite frankly, aren’t as aware of what they are looking for in students; so I’ve seen plenty of prompts that make an applicant look bad.

In short if an essay can touch the heart of one admissions officer at one institution then it can probably do that at another. Of course there are other variables such as how was the admission officers mood that day or what are the intuitional requirements and for these reasons, among others, it makes sense to apply to multiple institutions with identical essays.

generic = touching the emotions or beliefs (most) humans share.