Understood - and let’s take the political part out a minute - because yes it’s an easy admit.
This can be hard for kids - but not always. After they visit somewhere, they can “fall in love” - which also isn’t good if it doesn’t work.
So two examples - after visiting WUSTL (after many others), my son was in love - that is, until we visited Purdue. And he was in love. Got in for engineering with $10K merit.
Had zero interest in the school where he ended up. Zero - that is, until they had a day where they had to job shadow someone or visit a school and three friends invited him to Tuscaloosa. He came home, applied, got in three days later - and then told us he applied. So a totally easy, whatever school. btw - job wise - killed it - many offers and works with kids at the school he declined. Too much is put on ranking…but I digress.
What changed his tune from a top 10 engineering school to one that barely registers a blip? The campus somewhat (really nice), I’m guessing closer to mom by three hours, but most importantly - got his own room and shared bath with one other kid. Once he saw that vs. the overcrowded situation at that time at Purdue - he was done.
That he got so much auto merit that I saved $80K - not even on his radar - although nice for me.
My daughter applied to 21 and chose #16 ranked of 17 she got into. I’ll never forget, the admissions session - totally bothered her. She had a 32 ACT - and the range was 20-27 or 21-28 for OOS - and she was way above.
But - even though she got into much higher ranked schools - from W&L to UF to UGA Honors and USC Honors and UMD, etc. - she chose the school that fit. Why - it just felt better to her. Bonus for dad (but not her) - she had merit money (although got a lot more after accepting - that’s just dumb luck).
So it is hard for kids - they think they’ve worked hard - and why would I go to a safety?
But at the same time - you have to look deeper - and again, you’re off U of A so this is just an example.
You’d be out 4 years at $100K vs. let’s say Rochester got to $250K - so her hard work saves mom and dad a boat load. Savings for grad school, a house, wedding, your retirement - whatever. If she had a 3.0, you wouldn’t have that $32K off a year.
She’ll likely go in with credits - more likely at a public than a private - giving her flexibility to do more of the things she wants academically.
I would argue - every flagship in the country - even a Wyoming or Rhode Island - have Ivy or Ivy like students on their campus. Alabama is not hard to get into at all - yet has as many national merit scholars as anywhere. Why? They buy them in. I’ve come across enough kids serving me at restaurants or my kid’s friends to know - tons of kids choose safeties. My daughters best guy friend at Charleston got into Rice, Penn, and Vandy - and yet goes to a regional public. And guess what - had to WD a pre med class - Org Chemistry. Lots of smart kids and rigor all over.
So you don’t see the value in full pay (I personally agree) - and this is where her hard work pays off - whether you want your budget to be $20K, $30K or $60K - her hard work is what will get you there. You might need to bribe her with a summer trip or something to make it known. 
So there are various ways to look at it.
And when you are looking at the overall school and difficulty of admission - you’re missing the point. It is one of the premier colleges for physics in the country.
Here’s an example - for Supply Chain, Michigan State and Arizona State are #1 and #2. UTK was #3 but swapped places with MIT. Now, would anyone say Michigan State is “better” than MIT - of course not. But it’s reputation in this area is.
So yes, U of A is an easy in - but guess what - a 2.8 in high school or 3.2 with 24 ACT is not going to graduate in physics - no how, no way. Engineering - which is physics related - has the highest non completion rates in the country - some studies say up to 60%. So when she is in knee deep in physics - wherever she is - she’s going to be with really really really smart kids.
U AZ is #10 (behind #9 Rochester) is # of PHDs it has - meaning, U of A undergrads in PHD programs. #11 is Harvard, #13 Washington, #14 UMN (on your list and very good), #15 Princeton, #20 UMD. These are not weighted for size.
So - I think when you get to your final and let’s say it’s Rochester at $70K vs. Depaul at $40K - yes, Depaul is an easy in - but if it meets your need (city, etc) and it saves a few bucks - it’s because of what she accomplished that got her to that point, not just because it’s cheaper. She made it cheaper by having them beg to have a student who is accomplished like her on campus. At the end of the day, if Depaul is urban and she wants that and Rochester isn’t - the relative ranking won’t matter - she has to be there four years, day after day after day (if these were the two schools in contention).
People pay to have the strongest students on campus - especially when they’re not the top schools. Career wise, there’s likely little difference in someone graduating UCLA vs. Arizona. They’re both large flagships.
But their selectivity is different, that’s true.
And in order to get that “UCLA” kid, they have to pay more - easy for me to understand and you I’m sure - but harder for the kid.
But you want a top schools at a lesser price and it can happen.
But when it does - it won’t be due to her charm and personality. It will likely be due to her profile which will soar above the average students at the school she attends.
So commend her for her greatness - but only if she hooks you up financially
Have you guys started visiting schools so she can get a feel? What kids say upfront they want often changes after visiting campus. It certainly did for both mine.
Thanks
