When will we start to know "estimations" on state cutoff for NMSF for Class of 2019?

I realize that the PSAT results(with SI) will come out on Dec 11, 12 and 13 for the October 2017 test takers. It seems in the past many “sources” begin to estimate what state cut offs might be. I know last year we saw many states go up atleast 1 point over the past year (many states much more). First, when do the estimations begin for what the state cut offs might be? (I realize the official results are in Spring). And, second, is it possible they will go up again by 1 point.or possibly go down 1 point? I guess I am talking about the highly competitive states - Massachusetts, Virginina and California. I have heard that it is based on how many graduating seniors there will be in that Class for each state. Is there an easy way to look that up…Lots of questions…appreciate the thoguhts. Thanks

@LvMyKids2 you are in for a long s-l-o-w ride. Doubt anyone will even think about making estimates on state cut offs until this year’s actual scores are released. Heck, my kid doesn’t take the PSAT for another week an a half!

In general high score states don’t usually go up or down by more than a point but nothings says this can’t happen.

There’s a guy named Art that has a blog at Compass Test Prep that has had very reliable predictions in the past. You might want to Google him.

@3scoutsmom yes I know all about Art, thank you! Yes, i understand that high score states don’t go up or down by more than 1…just hoping my state doesn’t go up another 1! THANK YOU

Why is this important? You get mentally prepared and alert relaxed, do you best, and then compare your score to any cutoffs. You can not predict either your score or the cutoff. Perhaps think about the percentile or range in which you typically score and expect your new score will fall in its usual place. For example, if you typically at the 99 percentile or earn the highest grade on a school test, you will probably earn a score in that same area irrespective of test difficulty. That’s a pretty routine assumption in test development. So, do your best and assume your score will place close to its usual position.

Hoping that my state doesn’t go up a point this year… right at the cut off at the moment :((