Does anyone have predictions, with a rationale or support, for the sate cutoff scores on the PSAT for the class of 2017?
Some predictions are here http://blog.prepscholar.com/national-merit-semifinalist
but I do wonder if they are likely to be accurate?
Thoughts from the Forum?
I would not use those predictions. They simply subtracted 12 from last years cutoffs because the max SI this year is 228. Score reports say we won’t know until September but many of us are trying to make an educated guessed using the concordance tables to convert subscores from this years test to last years to see if they are above last years cutoff. For example, my son’s SI this year is 216. Concordance puts score at 213. Cutoff for our state was 211. Now that’s proof of almost nothing but it’s the best guess anyone seems to have.
https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/psat-nmsqt-preliminary-concordance-tables-2015.pdf
My prediction is the lower scoring states will need to score higher this year, the very highest maybe a few points lower and everybody else will be close to the same. And we will all worry until Sept. I think it will be about a 206 for commended.
@delilahhxc – Ok - I am having difficulty understanding the Concordance tables - seems for example – my son got a 1470 & his SI is 218 for that. In looking at the concordance table though, a 1470 = 223 based on prior year’s test. So I am wondering it state cut-offs are likely to be lowered in many cases by a few points.
I’m guessing that if you subtract 3 or 4 points from your state’s SI in 2014, that will be the approximate cutoff for 2015. The concordance table said my score of 1470/219 (OH) this year would be 222-224 last year.
209 and 1390 in ND good enough for NMSF? Last year was the cut off was 204, but the concordance chart seems to be saying 1390 equals a 204 which would mean that it would raise for that score…
Is this the correct way to read the concordance table? You look at the 4 digit score score from this yr and that gives you the equivalent score from the old methodology’s index??? If that is correct and that index score is significantly above your state’s cutoff in the past (and the current score is also significantly above the state’s historical cutoff), is it safe to assume that you have made the cutoff?
Is 222 probably enough for Oregon? (215 was last year’s cutoff)
@Mom2aphysicsgeek I think you should be fine
220 in VA?
I got a 217 in Nevada. Last year’s cutoff score was 211. What do you guys think?
Just be careful converting scores this year. You cannot determine SI based solely on an overall score. You need subject scores. So comparisons to last year are just estimates.
Anyone think 217 might be enough for California?
@2muchquan Can you explain that? Is the SI provided by CB inaccurate? Dd scored in the 99th percentile across the board. Is the SI of the 3 scores added together and multiplied by 2 not the SI number?
@Mom2aphysicsgeek 2munch is talking about converting scores btw 2015 and 2014.
Your understanding is correct.
@payn4ward Thank you. If that is correct, dd can be confident of being a NMSF. 
I don’t know much about the National Merit stuff associated with the PSAT. When are semifinalists announced, and how will we receive information if we’ve qualified?
Does anyone think a 215 will be enough for Pennsylvania? I got 99th percentile around the board but people seem to think 99th may not be enough because of the large number of test takers this year
engineur - Last year the cut-off was 216 for PA - seehttp://blog.prepscholar.com/national-merit-semifinalist. Based on the College Board concordance tables: https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/psat-nmsqt-preliminary-concordance-tables-2015.pdf A 215 equates to a 1440 apparently (what was your total score?) which then seems on the concordance table to equate to a 214 - based on previous years testing. I understand that official cut-off scores will be announced in September and vary by state whereas the cut off for “Commended” students is a national number and should be announced in April. It is possible many states will reduce the cut-off level a bit but no way to know till September.
@Mom2aphysicsgeek I don’t want to give incorrect info, so I’ll let others give detail. I haven’t even received D’s score. I’m just saying you can’t go from a raw score of, say, 1470 and determine an SI. M and R are weighted differently. You need to know subject scores.
The number given by CB on your report I’m sure is correct. I did not try to imply anything about the numbers from CB