I think you tagged me incorrectly on your reply.
Apologies! I did!
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You’re a strong candidate. Your CC at BS can help you most better than any of us here - including with developing a strategy. You might be really well served by an early application at one, for example.
Having developed this list, I’d try to do some prioritization in terms of preference as that will no doubt play a role in how you approach the process.
Well, I tried to suss out in my first post what the preferred budget numbers were, and although I agree that the college counselor at the boarding school would be the most helpful with respect to the student’s chances at the various colleges, I suspect that @ChoatieMom is likely correct that OP may not have cared for those suggestions and thus found his way here to get opinions from CC. My second list is filled with schools that would be likelier for admissions and significant merit aid and thus likely to hit whatever the unknown budget amount is.
I feel as though CC can be a place for a second opinion. It can be a way to confirm what the boarding school counselor said. Or it can be used to throw out some slightly more out-of-the-box ideas that could hit on something for the student (or just bounce off and fall to the ground). Of course, I’m one of those who tends to do exhaustive searches on possibilities to make sure there was no stone left unturned, and not everyone is like me in that respect. 
Yes, when someone writes this - in my mind, they’re saying cost is a factor. But it’s why they need to discuss with their parents.
You can’t get that “bonus” if you are applying to schools that aren’t given one.
That’s why you need to have the discussion:
25K vs. 85K - where can I go.
45K vs. 85K - where can i got.
60K vs. 85K.
You have to see - do the parents continually say - the $85K is fine?
It sounds easy to say until you’re faced with the reality of paying - and that answer may change given the fact that we are facing higher interest rates, 529 plans/stocks are falling, and we may (or may not be) headed into recession. We found out today the GDP actually contracted…so our economy is shrinking…
It’s easy to say things when everything is up up and up - but if you have your money in a few stocks and they’ve fallen 50-70% - the answer may have changed.
I hear you, but you can take my word that the OP’s school has gotten the financial constraints, if any, directly from the parents long before this post. They know exactly what this poster’s situation is.
Your comments are well-suited to a general audience. This poster is not that audience.
The fact that @tortoises11 posted here rather than among BS parents and peers in the prep forum is what makes me suspicious that he or she is looking for a different narrative.
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I’d read nothing into this. WAMC is the college chance forum, regardless of where one attends HS. If a BS parent wants to weigh in, they’ll find it; you did. 
But I will second the notion that the college counseling office is the best place for the OP to start.
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And you know how often I frequent “chances,” ski. 
It was “boarding school” in the title of latest posts that made me open it.
I suspect the GC at an “elite NE boarding school” would appreciate the input of the CC community about as much as I would welcome faceless strangers making assumptions about my personal finances and advising my kid based on those uninformed assumptions.
OP talk to your parents and GC they have the most informed answers you are seeking.
Good luck.
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And let’s recall – Some boarding schools can be just as costly as a private college.
If someone says that cost isn’t a factor, I don’t think it’s the role of the CC community to lecture the person about considering cost.
Merit aid is a bonus for even billionaires but unless asked to comment on it, I don’t think it’s the role of responders.
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By mentioning it’s a bonus he asked…hence my offering of alternatives.
I don’t think anyone on this thread is telling OP to ignore what his guidance counselor is saying. He’s been told repeatedly that is where he is likely to get his best information. And although OP is fortunate to have a true college counselor at his school, unlike the vast majority of other chance me posters, I don’t think it means that he should be treated differently than any other high school junior asking these types of questions.
And frankly, I would be shocked if OP’s counselor recommended all the schools in my second list. (I’d also be shocked, and doubt, that OP’s list was approved or vetted by his CC.) It’s bursting the bubble a bit, thinking outside the box. OP might look at the schools I mentioned and say “no way.” Or maybe he’ll keep an open-mind and investigate some and find 1 or 2 to add to his application list. But treating OP completely differently because he attends a boarding school feels a bit like a double standard to me.
I’m in agreement here. I will bet my substantial College Confidential salary that the college counselor neither suggested, nor approved, a 23 college list containing 6 Ivys.
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I think it is incorrect to assume that a CC at an elite NE boarding school can assess chances any more than a fuzzy maybe. Especially these days. We (a private day school) “lost” one of our below average CC to an elite NE boarding school not so long ago. And our own CC, who I think is the best at our school, and in my opinion really good, had many gaps in their knowledge for particular kinds of situations. When you really get into the weeds and probe them, they just don’t know. They often commented to us that AOs come back to them with questions about candidates that they thought were modest/marginal sometimes.
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Agreed that the OP’s list needs more non-reaches. But I do think it’s being quite conservative to say it’s a “toss-up” for a kid with a 3.99/1540 and good rigor to be a toss-up at schools with 35-45% acceptance rates.
While I wouldn’t term those schools “safety,” acceptance chances would be far greater than toss-up. The median applicant has a toss-up chance of admission at those schools, but looking at Naviance for my own mid-sized high school, those 3 schools have never rejected anyone with over a 3.9/1500 (like 2 wait lists and 30 acceptances). I still wouldn’t call those safeties in today’s environment, but the chances at all those schools are far better than “toss up”
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In the case of both American and GWU, demonstrated interest is incredibly important in their admissions decisions. They both turn away students with high stats like OP’s, especially if they didn’t demonstrate interest, and sometimes even if they did. It’s critical to know the game one is playing at each school on the list.
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I’d agree with that. Probably more than ever with increasing applications, those mid/high tier schools don’t want to just become a safety school for a high achiever, they want to protect their yield.
So it’s still important to demonstrate interest, get applications in early with good essays, etc. As I said, I definitely wouldn’t see American and GWU as “safeties” for anybody but certainly “likely” for a high achiever, as long as they take the process seriously.
Plus full pay makes admission to Trinity even more likely
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I do prefer to be more conservative with my estimates; you’re absolutely right. I’d rather someone being pleasantly surprised than unpleasantly so when they’re opening up their college decisions.
As @Mwfan1921 mentioned, American and GW want a great deal of demonstrated interest and have turned away students with OP’s credentials if they didn’t think that American/GW was truly one of the applicants’ top choices. And OP is hoping for merit aid, so even though his family perhaps could have been a full pay situation at Trinity, they’re hoping not to be.
Additionally, I believe in taking overall admissions rates seriously. Just because a student’s SAT and GPA are higher than the 25-75 range for a school doesn’t mean that they’re a shoo-in, or even a likely. Ask all the people applying for Top X schools (or look on those threads). Being above the 75th percentile is what I consider a strong boost and will normally flip someone into the next category up.
- Trinity has a 33% acceptance rate with an ACT range of 30-32.
- George Washington has a 41% acceptance rate with SAT scores of 1280-1470 and ACT scores of 30-33.
- American has a 36% acceptance rate with an SAT range of 1210-1390 and ACT range of 29-33.
Perhaps my labels could be tweaked, but toss-up goes up to a roughly 59% chance. It’s a wide range. And since GW was at 41%, and I’m betting the admissions percentages for all three of those schools dropped this year, I kept them in the toss-up category. But others are welcome to have their own categorization system and classify them as likelies.
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I don’t really disagree with that. But there is a huge chasm between “shoo in” and “toss up.” Being in the 90-95th percentile of applicants statistically/rigor should give a very healthy boost to acceptance chances. Yes, such a person can still get rejected, especially if they don’t take the process seriously (blow off the essays, fail to demonstrate interest, etc).
GWU’s admission rate this year is actually being reported at 49%…
So with a 49% admission rate, a student in the 95-99th percentile of applicants should be well above that rate.
But I don’t dramatically disagree with you. Yes, still not a shoo in.
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