After a quarter century in the freshman business, I’m still trying to figure it out. I mean, if I could, WOW, I’d have spot on goals each grant re-write!
While not a terrific indicator of who will persist and who won’t, I’d like to add that students who have had some more adult responsibilities fall into that “just wasn’t ready” category less often. Have they had to deal with what to do when they get sick? (make appointments, understand the whole “co-pay” thing, etc.) Have they been completely responsible for some aspect of self care? (their own laundry, for example). Do they have a bank account and have they been responsible for a bill? Have they had a paying job with an outside employer (not family member or family friend)?
But still, not a sure-fire predictor.