<p>I normally do not do chances because I beleive that if you don't throw your hat in the ring your have a 100% chance of not being admitted. </p>
<p>Regarding SAT scores -they are taken into consideration in context of one's enviornment. A 1300 from a student from a single parent household, public school who works part time to help the family is going to be viewed differently than a 1300 from an intact 2 parent household where one or both parents are professionals. High SES, private school (or premier public school). SATs are also going to be taken in content of the average scores of the school which you attend. If you attend an elite private school where the average score is 1410, your 1300 does not put you competitively in the pool. You wrote that your cousin is from a single parent home, that too is going to be all relative . A stdent from a single parent household is going to be looked at differently from a child froma single parent household who is college educted or a professional. I too am a single parent but I hold 2 master's degree and beginning work on my Phd, as I stated before it's all relative. </p>
<p>Over the next few years, the competition to get into college especially selective schools is going to be really stiff just because of the sheer number of applicanats (this includes URMs). </p>
<p>From the Journal of Blacks in Higher Education </p>
<p><a href="http://www.jbhe.com/latest/100704_blackenrollment_yale.html%5B/url%5D">http://www.jbhe.com/latest/100704_blackenrollment_yale.html</a></p>
<p>Yale Tops the Ivy League in Black Freshman Enrollments: </p>
<p>JBHE has completed its annual collection of data on black first-year enrollments at the eight Ivy League colleges and universities. Blacks make up 9.3 percent of the first-year students at Yale University this fall. This is the highest rate in the Ivy League and the highest rate at Yale in the past decade. A year ago, only 6.7 percent of the entering class at Yale was black. </p>
<p>Harvard University also had a good year in attracting black students. There are 145 black freshmen at Harvard this fall. They make up 8.9 percent of the first-year class. </p>
<p>At the University of Pennsylvania, Princeton University, and Dartmouth College, blacks make up slightly more than 7 percent of the entering class. At Columbia University and Brown University, blacks are 6.8 percent of the freshman classes. </p>
<p>As has been the case for the past 13 years since JBHE began collecting statistics on black first-year enrollments in the Ivy League colleges, Cornell University has the smallest percentage of blacks in its entering class. This fall blacks are 4.7 percent of the freshman class at Cornell. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.jbhe.com/latest/021005_applicant_dartmouth-harvard.html%5B/url%5D">http://www.jbhe.com/latest/021005_applicant_dartmouth-harvard.html</a></p>
<p>Black Applicants Surge at Harvard and Dartmouth: </p>
<p>Harvard reported this past week that it received a total of 22,717 applications for the class that will enter this fall. The number of applicants rose by 15 percent from last year's total. Black applications for the freshman class increased at an even higher rate. Harvard reports that black applicants increased 28.3 percent from last year. A university spokesperson stated that the huge jump in applicants may be due to the new Harvard Financial Aid Initiative, which essentially eliminates out-of-pocket tuition and room and board expenses for students who come from families with incomes of less than $40,000 per year. </p>
<p>In the year after the Cornel West controversy, black enrollments dipped slightly at Harvard. Now it appears that Harvard has weathered that storm as well as last summer's controversy surrounding the denial of tenure to African-American studies professor Marcyliena Morgan. This denial of tenure caused Professor Morgan and her husband, Lawrence Bobo, the esteemed sociologist and member of the National Academy of Sciences, to take tenured teaching positions at Stanford. </p>
<p>At Dartmouth College, overall applications surged to their highest level in history. The admissions office reports that applications from "students of color" represented 25 percent of the total pool. Applications from blacks were at their highest level in the past four years. Good evidence that a frigid winter climate does not necessarily deter black applications to a college that is otherwise seen as receptive to black students. </p>
<p>Because there are more applicants applying to both of these schools this year, the 44% admit rate that Blacks got admitted into Dartmouth in the class of 08, is most likely going to decrease for the class decrease this year.</p>
<p>What does this mean overall for blacks; every one has to step up their game as being a URM is still going to be a hook, the pool in this population is going to be more competitive, whith more choices given to those that bring the overall "A" game to the table, as the pool is also participating in more rigerous courses offered by their school.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.jbhe.com/latest/022405_advancedplacementcourses.html%5B/url%5D">http://www.jbhe.com/latest/022405_advancedplacementcourses.html</a></p>
<p>*Black Participation in Particular Advanced Placement Courses: *</p>
<p>In 2004 more than 78,000 African-American students took Advanced Placement examinations. Blacks now make up 5 percent of all Advanced Placement test takers nationwide. For both blacks and whites, English literature, American history, English composition, and calculus were the most popular AP courses. Blacks were 6.9 percent of all students who took the AP test in French literature. This was the highest participation percentage for any of the 34 AP subject tests. Blacks were also at least 6 percent of all test takers in the subject areas of English literature, world history, macroeconomics, and French language. </p>
<p>The lowest level of black participation was on the Spanish literature test. Only 56 black students nationwide took the AP test in Spanish literature in 2004. They were only 0.6 percent of all test takers in this subject. Blacks were also less than 2 percent of all AP test takers in the subject areas of electrical and magnetic physics, Spanish language, computer science, and German. </p>
<p>What I would recommend to your cousin, is that he cut back on his EC and concentrate on raising is grades (while there may be a little slack given on the SAT scores, your high school record, rigor of curriculum and rank -for schools that rank are still the number one factor in admissions). he should look into not only taking the most rigerous courses, but doing well in those classes.</p>
<p>Your cousin has a few variables where I feel a good assesment can't be given. Apparently the school weighs grades, he has a weighted scale of 5.23 out of what?
is the 3.56 based on a 4.0 or 4.3? All of this is going to determine how he stacks up to his peers in the applicant pool.</p>
<p>In the end while I believe in the importance of holding on to your dream and he should go for it because in the big scheme of things he is only risking the application and score reporting fees. I strongly advise your cousin to have reach, match , safety schools (which includes a financial safety-if admitted you can attend and you will be able to afford) and rolling admissions school so tha he will have something under his belt.. He should also look at schools where he could be at the top of the applicant pool in line to get merit money (even if this means applying to a lower ranked school. With a strong grades, he should consider throwing is hat at an SAT optional school where his grades will take center stage. Remember that colleges build classes and the mission of the class changes year to year so what got a student into a school last year may not get them into a school this year or next.</p>
<p>All the best</p>