<p>Same here. My "favorite" part is the one about the legacy with a 13-something on her SATs who got in EA. And how she's suddenly attacked. I'd go look it up for more specifics, but that would require re-reading the thread.</p>
<p>newt, you are my god for posting that</p>
<p>I'm not even applying to Yale EA and I've read it several times, so something must really be wrong with me....</p>
<p>I don't know how they can admit 30% all EA applicants and 7% RD applicants (excluding those who were deferred) and still say that there is no statistical advantage to EA.</p>
<p>the decisions seemed so random! some really good application were deferred or rejected while others with basically the same stats got in. what is yale really looking for?
ARGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!</p>
<p>Does anybody have their AP/college level probability/statistics knowledge in place to calculate the total average chances of being admitted for EA applicants factoring in those deferred, then accepted?</p>
<p>Check my math for overall average rate of admission for EA applicants (factoring in chances of being deferred then admitted) for 2003: 670/4049+(249/1737)*0.429=22.7%</p>
<p>That would be much more consoling than the 16.5% early rate, alone eh...</p>
<p>and I actually thought that my chances of being flat out rejected were slim... apparently not because 40% is not slim in anyone's book. and please let's never mention that thread again because in just 10 more days, we will be posting up our own depressing thread.</p>
<p>Bump...anyone willing to check my calculations?</p>
<p>My dad did the math and emailed it to me awhile ago. It came out about the same as yours, sleet.</p>
<p>Thanx a bunch, lindsey...</p>
<p>22.7 percent. Cheer up, guys...people in Japan, France, Russia face much slimmer odds of getting into Top Choice U all the time...like 7%...imagine that!</p>
<p>i think that while the RD rate is alot lower, RD generally has alot less qualified people applying. I think most of the best qualified kids RD will be those who got deferred/rejected from other ivies, similar top schools. </p>
<p>any thoughts?</p>
<p>Sleet,
Your math adds up with mine from page one perfectly at 22.7%. For those who use CC and posted last year, that rate rises to almost 30% (although the validity of that is only from 60-some posters last year who were willing to release their scores). Take off the maybe 5-10% who have little or no choice (Figure yourself out of that) and we are approaching an almost 1/3 chance of being accepted to Yale. Much better than the 1/10 that is the overall rate.</p>
<p>For deferrments, An update letter at the end of January would be a significant boost to an application that is already on the fence.</p>
<p>Thanks, Nickleby! Yep, I agree. Would anyone care to do a significance test or determine the confidence interval for the 60+ people's statistics from last year? Lol I love statistics...I need to refresh my knowledge of it though. I think I'll go review my textbook.</p>
<p>Never took Statistics. Not a very advanced class at my high school (no where near AP level). I just used common sense and a little basic math. However common sense once again shows my the following:</p>
<p>1.) Of course, a sampling of 1.5% of the total 4,000 applicants is not very accurate for such a small test group.</p>
<p>2.) These are only the students who decided to post their results. These people are more likely to have gotten in and shared joy rather than dissapointment. This may reflect the extremely low number of rejections.</p>
<p>However...</p>
<p>-2.) The same people who post regularly posted their results. So of those who are regulars, then the results may be more accurate than those whose decisions to post are based upon the outcome of their acceptance.</p>
<p>3.) A couple of applicants each year can change the pool. Maybe they had no panther, lindsylujh, or davidrune to boost their rate, or perhaps they were all around or above that level.</p>
<p>In the end, this is fun and worrysome at the same time, but only December 15 (16, whatever) will decide. For acceptees, it will be a fun time to compare statistics, but for those who don't get in, it will take a few days to get back to the thread.</p>
<p>Wow that is depressing. But look on the bright side! Us 9th graders will be way worse! Lots of people were born in 1990 and it goes up every year and so on. But think of it this way, if you're a Kerry fan, even George Bush managed to get in and if you're a Bush fan vice versa. Feel better! Feel better! Feel better!</p>