<p>WestWing: Here’s a general vision of “chances” -</p>
<p>Every school will say what test scores and GPAs they have accepted in the past. It’s often on their website, on the College Board website, and in the Common Data set. You can usually find what stats the top 25% of their accepted students had, the middle 50% had, and the bottom 25% had. You can find out where your stats fall, and statistically you have a decent “chance” if you are in the their middle 50%, and a good chance if you’re in the top 25%.</p>
<p>If they admitted someone with a 2.5 and a 1500 SAT, for example, even in their lowest 25% of accepted students, then they could do it again. But of course that’s not the only criteria they use - maybe students with lower stats had other qualities that they want. I know you know about this because you talk about legacy, ECs and other factors. But if your stats are within their accepted numbers, you have “a chance,” period.</p>
<p>The other numbers you have to look at are the total percentage of applicants they accept among those who apply. If they accept fewer than 20% of applicants, nobody can count on being admitted. If they take 30-40% of applicants, then everyone who applies only has a “chance,” but with those numbers they still most likely reject students who have the “right” stats just because they don’t have room. A school that accepts 70-80% of applicants is one where you can be confident that if your stats match, you will most likely be accepted.</p>
<p>Find some schools that have high acceptance rates, and where you are in the top 25% of applicants. Then you can apply to other schools where your chances are more in the middle, or even longshots. How many potential rejections you can handle is up to you - my D will probably be rejected from half of her schools (some are academic high match/reaches where she is in the middle 50% of applicants, and others are very selective auditioned programs), and she is gearing herself for that. Another kid might not want to go through the hassle and would try for surer bets. Nothing is right or wrong.</p>
<p>Use numbers, make sure you have some safety schools, and then go for whatever you personally feel comfortable with or excited about. I wish people could make you feel more confident about those highly selective schools, but with their acceptance rates it’s never possible to predict what will happen.</p>