<p>30 years ago, upper middle income family made $24,000 and sent child to 7- sister school for about $6,000 (room, board and tuition).</p>
<p>That would likely have been around 1971 (when I graduated). There were few upper middle income students at that time. Lots of top 3%ers, and in the early 70s, need-based aid was at its highest. In 1972, Princeton (for example) had the highest percentage of African-American students it would ever have, and virtually all of them were on close to full scholarship. Now there are far, far fewer African-American students receiving need-based aid at Princeton than were doing so then. </p>
<p>By 1982, this had changed massively. Costs had tripled, need-based aid hadn't kept pace at most of the prestige privates. (I have to look it up, but I think there were downturns in endowments as well). The percentage of full-freighters remained the same, but the income needed to support a full-freight student was substantially higher in both relative and absolute terms. In other words, the income gap between the full-freighters and everyone else began to widen. </p>
<p>"So...if family is going to spend 1/4 of income on kids college, they need to earn $200,000....which is quite a bit more than "upper middle income" these days!"</p>
<p>Exactly. Actually it works out to a minimum of around $165k (depending on assets), with the median (as was already pointed out) being substantially higher However, what is forgotten here is that assets among the top 3%ers ($165k and more) are 4x-6x times the assets of those at middle income ($43k-$65k). As the asset gap has widened (aren't too many $55k families that can buy a house as an appreciating asset in many places anymore, or who have any signficant assets), prestige colleges have become more affordable for the top 3%ers, and less affordable for middle-income folks. Now, for top quintile, non-top 3%ers, things like the new no-loan policies have benefitted them disproportionately. At the majority of prestige privates, for all the talk, there are fewer Pell Grant students than in 1993-1994 (according to Tom Mortenson, College Opportunties, who tracks these things); and middle to upper middle income folks ($43k- $95k) are a vanishing breed at many of the prestige privates. Folks in the top quintile are scrambling uncomfortably to afford things (helped along by policies like the "no-loan" thing), or are sending their kids to state u's - where most of them would have ended up 40 years ago.</p>