A money gap and a brain drain

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You think people remember Einstein because of his flair? I didn't even know he had flair! These giants of science will be remembered for their discoveries - nothing else.

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<p>Uh, they WILL be remembered for their flair. There are plenty of Nobel winners who are completely obscure. </p>

<p>Besides, I can name you a list of luminaries who are now considered to be widely discredited from an academic standpoint. Freud, for example, is still, far and away, the most famous psychologist in history, despite the fact that much of his actual work has been debunked academically. Hawking, as I have said, is not the most important living physicist today according to fellow physicists, in fact, not even in the top 10. Yet the public surely can't name that top 10 (I surely can't). The field of economics has built significantly on the work of Friedman such that few economists in the world can say that they are pure Friedman adherents. </p>

<p>Look, the truth is, science will advance and prove that what we think are 'truths' today will later be shown to not really be the truth at all. Relativity and Quantum Mechanics essentialy revealed that Newtonian Classical Mechanics was wrong (or, at least, highly incomplete). I'm sure that some day, somebody will show that relavity and quantum mechanics are wrong too and will come up with an even better theory. There are very few truly set theories in science that stand until the end of time. The Second Law of Thermodynamics is probably as close as we can get to a inviolate scientific theorem. A thousand years in the future, I'm sure people will be laughing at all of the silly things that we thought were true that turned out not to be true. Science as a paradigm is really an iterative path towards the truth.</p>

<p>Well, come 50 years people aren't going to know about Stephen Hawking (unless his theories are proven to be true - in which case he might get a Nobel). Rarely will anyone be remembered with how they presented information (unless they are in entertainment).</p>

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Uh, they WILL be remembered for their flair. There are plenty of Nobel winners who are completely obscure.

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Why is Einstein remembered?</p>

<p>You guys all better pray we go to and win the Rose Bowl, if not the BCS National Championship in football this year. Tedford at this point in time is the MESSIAH of the University of California Berkeley. Good football = $$$</p>

<p>I saw this on another chat about this article and thought it was interesting...</p>

<p>"Specifically with respect to the article in the LA Times:</p>

<p>1) The professors complained that they had to raise funding for projects before they could start. I work for an ivy league institution, and am helping a prestigious professor start an institution, and guess what? The first thing the university demands is that he find money for the program before anything gets off the dime. So what's new about what was quoted in this article with respect to this at Berkeley? So this is not a useful data point for me, since I know how this works in the real world. A journalist on a tight daily timeframe probably doesn't and doesn't bother to find out the truth.</p>

<p>2) I already made my point about the buildings at Berkeley. See above. Frankly, it has always been an object of ridicule for me. A building is falling down or is otherwise decrepit and we hear that the university is having a really tough time. And then -- boom -- a new $350 million state of the art building. I think all universities of a certain caliber go about things this way, and probably have to do so.</p>

<p>3) If you are going to talk about school funding, look at Harvard: the business school is flush, absolutely swimming in cash, but fairly recently the Graduate School of Design ran out of money and had to enact some pretty serious curbs according to a friend who was there told me. If you talk to the GSD, Harvard is not so flush with cash. But that of course is a crazy non-reality; Harvard is stupendously wealthy. It just makes every program stand on its own legs financially. Refer to point 1.</p>

<p>So, is the UC about to crash and burn? I have no idea. But I will tell you that the LA Times in one short article doesn't either. I offer this perspective as one who saw very similar articles written more than 20 years ago. And UC and Berkeley have continued to thrive by many measures. That's my only point: no perspective. In the absence of perspective, biases and easy answers prevail. Truth is harder to obtain, and you're certainly not going to get it from me -- or from most other pithy statements.</p>

<p>As for insecurity, I have none with respect to anything happening on this board. I had a great experience at Berkeley and also Back East. For those considering Berkeley, I would say it's big and impersonal often, and a challenging place. Some love it for that reason, others not. I would also say perennially it's proven itself to be one of the most significant universities in the nation in terms of sheer breadth and depth and quality. It is able to achieve this either in spite of or through being large. It continues to attract (and lose as they all do) some of the finest talent in the world. Folks, there's really enough prestige to go around. Berkeley, MIT, CalTech, Harvard, etc. etc. USC, Amherst, etc. can all be great. The question is the fit for you. For me, Berkeley was a great fit.</p>

<p>What a lot of people want is to be able neatly fit things into obvious categories and pecking orders. Berkeley is challenging in this regard because it's a public institution with a different mission and yet pre-eminent. </p>

<p>In my experience, people at Berkeley specialize in thinking the grass is always greener. But I've seen the progression of people leave there and go to places in the ivy league or elsewhere and realize that Berkeley is amazing and that they had under-rated it. The under-rating mainly occurs in terms of understanding how tremendous the professors and often fellow classmates were, in my experience."</p>

<p>"I'm sure that some day, somebody will show that relativity and quantum mechanics are wrong too and will come up with an even better theory."</p>

<p>They actually have already been shown to be wrong, or at least inconsistent. Specifically, it has been theoretically shown that they are contradictory theories when we are studying systems where general relativity and quantum mechanics are both very important, such as the microscopic depths of black holes. Much work has been going on to find an even better theory that fixes this contradiction - it is one of the greatest topics of current theoretical physics research, and has led to string theory, loop quantum gravity, and much more. More experimental evidence is necessary though to make any significant advances.</p>

<p>I'm sorry, this was probably highly irrelevant to the thread, it's just the physics major in me acting out ;).</p>

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They will, however, remember the Hawkings, the Feynmans, the Einsteins, the Goulds, and the Friedmans.</p>

<p>Why?

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<p>Yes, flair, but also correctness. Correctness is important. You can bet there are a lot of people out there with a lot of "flair", but if you aren't a genius scientist (or something similar), that doesn't mean a whole lot.</p>

<p>On to sakky's monstrous post...</p>

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Ha! Your answer is completely belied by the evidence. After all, look at most successful tech companies out there. Does Microsoft really produce the best PC software out there? That is a highly dubious notion. Does Intel really produce the best microprocessors? Most observers would agree that in the last few years, it has actually been AMD that has been producing the best microprocessors from a technical standpoint. Many tech guys, including myself, believe that Cisco, which is the dominant network router vendor in the world, does not really produce the truly best routers in the world from a technical standpoint, and if you really wanted to buy a truly technically marvelous router, you would go to Juniper.

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<p>This has nothing to do with what I said. I was saying that if you are an employee in a company that is more often wrong than right, but more often than not convinces your superiors that you are right, you will eventually get fired (when the product goes live), while if you are more often right than wrong but your superiors don't believe you, but your code works when the product ships, you'll keep your job.</p>

<p>Further, the issue with your claim is that Microsoft may not produce the "best" operating system--but that's because you may define "best" as "most secure" and/or "most stable" and/or "fastest". If you define "best" as the best option for most consumers (i.e. the one with the best hardware and software developer support, the one that ships by default on most OEM systems, the one that most people are familiar with, the one that has the best professional support), then Microsoft (sadly) does make the best OS. I hate MS as much as the next guy, but I can see why they dominate the market--their product isn't really as bad as most would claim, and for most people, it is in fact better than most alternatives.</p>

<p>If we look at Intel vs. AMD, the issue is that while AMD may be technically superior, it doesn't matter to most consumers or OEM manufacturers. Since it doesn't matter to consumers (the ones the OEMs sell to), they will stick with the "safe" choice--they've used Intel since the original Pentium, they have deals with Intel to get their chips cheaper, so why change? When it became clear and publicized that AMD was better, some offered AMD options, but it didn't really affect the consumer--they would've been fine with an Athlon 64 or a Pentium 4, really (10% isn't a big deal to these people). Those that do care get AMD.</p>

<p>Remember, "technically superior" doesn't mean "right". Sure, the Bugatti Veryon is "technically superior" to the Honda Civic, but that means nothing in the market. "Right" means what the consumer wants, and Microsoft, Intel, and Cisco offer that (I don't want to get into Cisco vs. Juniper, since similar arguments apply).</p>

<p>Anyway, all of this is way off-topic. Yes, I wish Linux were more popular, that AMD had enough money to make 65nm and 45nm fabs, and that corporate-level networking had more competition, but that doesn't have any relevance to what I was saying.</p>

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My friend, you have a very idealistic view of the world. In reality, the truth does not always 'out', and politics plays a huge role in determining who gets fired and who doesn't, who gets promoted and who doesn't. Believe me, there are PLENTY of corporate scientists/engineers who were right, but got fired anyway because they were poor office politicians, and others who were wrong, but got promoted anyway because they were good office politicians. You can even look at it from an academic standpoint. Trust me, the Berkeley EECS department, just like any academic department, is riven with academic politics.</p>

<p>Look, eudean, nobody is saying that being right isn't important in science/engineering. But I think you deeply discount the notion of just how important it is to be smooth and persuasive, in addition to being right. If you're right, and nobody knows it, then you'll get marginalized. Furthermore, even if you're wrong, you can last for quite a long time if you're persuasive and a good office politician.

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<p>I think you're missing my point. Would you agree that a company that releases a buggy product as the result of the poor advising of an engineer would be more likely to go out of business than not? Would you agree that most companies you'd like to work for have been in business for a reasonably long period of time (in the tech world that may mean 3 years)? Then you'd agree that those that product bad or wrong ideas will be less likely to be working at the company you'd be working at.</p>

<p>I recognize the importance of persuasiveness. I just feel that in science/engineering, persuasiveness comes second to correctness. I completely agree that scientists and engineers should be taught persuasiveness more (in fact, all people should be taught persuasiveness), but I feel that when balancing correctness and persuasiveness in these fields, correctness will usually win out over persuasiveness.</p>

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They actually have already been shown to be wrong, or at least inconsistent.

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<p>Interesting post. I think it's rather obvious that by "wrong" we mean significantly wrong, as in it doesn't predict the results of any experiment with any accuracy. Newton was very, very wrong, but his theories are still very useful since they're "good enough" (what the consumer wants, if I had to make an analogy to the above--a simple model that does what I want it to, despite being technically inferior).</p>

<p>Well, I'm not sure Wikipedia is the best source to use. Good as a springboard, but not necessarily for hard data (i.e. economy & ranking).</p>

<p>I'll try and get some more data to support my statement.</p>

<p>Usually wikipedia links to the original sources too. Try that to verify the rankings.</p>

<p>Note: I didn't visit that wikipedia page.</p>

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Further, the issue with your claim is that Microsoft may not produce the "best" operating system--but that's because you may define "best" as "most secure" and/or "most stable" and/or "fastest". If you define "best" as the best option for most consumers (i.e. the one with the best hardware and software developer support, the one that ships by default on most OEM systems, the one that most people are familiar with, the one that has the best professional support), then Microsoft (sadly) does make the best OS. I hate MS as much as the next guy, but I can see why they dominate the market--their product isn't really as bad as most would claim, and for most people, it is in fact better than most alternatives.

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<p>Uh, haven't you now just redefined this as a tautology? You have just stated that 'the best' is just whatever it is that consumers want. I agree, and that's precisely my point - that customers don't always want things that are of the highest technical quality, the way that 'quality' tends to be defined by scientists and engineers. That is why pure scientists and engineers often times end up producing things that consumers don't really want, because they often times overestimate the importance of certain technical attributes. </p>

<p>To give away more of Christensen's book, in the case of the mainframe vendors, mainframe engineers overestimated the importance of reliability and throughput. Actually, that was an entirely reasonable thing to do because that was what CURRENT mainframe customers wanted. The problem is that there existed other potential customers that weren't even being served. You can't really design a product to shoot for a market that doesn't (yet) exist. This is exacerbated by the problem that new customers don't usually know what they want until they see it. The mini makers tried to sell to mainframe customers and initially got crushed as their products were of "poor" quality, as defined by what mainframe customers wanted at the time. So the mini makers had to search around and stumble upon another market of new customers that had no mainframes at all. This was a market that didn't even exist before the minis were invented. </p>

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Anyway, all of this is way off-topic. Yes, I wish Linux were more popular, that AMD had enough money to make 65nm and 45nm fabs, and that corporate-level networking had more competition, but that doesn't have any relevance to what I was saying

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<p>Don't you see the relevance? The relevance is that engineers and scientists can (and often do) push ideas that are technically "brilliant" or technically "right", but that fail in the market. In other words, you can have the best engineers in the world, and still produce a product that nobody wants. In fact, many companies have done this throughout history. A technically "wrong" idea often times wins. </p>

<p>Again, let's talk about the minis. The minis were the "wrong" idea for the market at the time, because existing mainframe customers didn't want them. It is just serendipitous that another market formed for minis that nobody even knew about, and that no customer research could have told you about. You can't do reliable customer research on a market that doesn't yet exist. If that new market hadn't formed, then minis would have failed. Minis were widely derided in the old days for their lack of reliability, for their low throughput, etc. Hence, this is an example of 'the wrong' ultimately winning out, if we define 'wrong' as using the technical criteria of the existing market of the time.</p>