compmom, prayers for your daughter’s continued healing and recovery
The former. The numbers cited do not include anything but forcible rape and incapacitated rape. Yes answers to (a) and (b) are not included at all.
But they aren’t included. Nice try, but next time how about reading either the thread or the paper itself before wasting our time raising objections that have already been repeatedly smacked down/
@TV4caster, the numbers cited do not include those who answered “yes” to a and b.
I’m really curious as to in what percentage of the forced sex cases was alcohol involved as well.
My suspicion is that if you’re a girl (and you don’t have sober female friends around to make sure that you can get home safely), your odds of getting raped skyrockets if you get drunk.
I disagree with you. TG’s statement is not wrong. It is not “utterly and completely wrong”. I totally agree with the part of your statement that it is rape if the person is incapacitated. I VERY strongly agree with you and have said so in other threads. However, I do not think a person who has .08 (for example) is incapacitated. So, to summarize. I don’t think drunk (not incapacitated) sex is rape.
Fang – I was using a different source for US DOJ.
Let’s go with your data set. 2 rapes per thousand per year per college student. Multiply by five gets you to 10 per year.
Syracuse is at 79 per thousand per one semester. And 162 per year. So Syracuse is still sixteen times higher even after inflating the DOJ stats by 500%.
At some point don’t you just have to call BS on this study? Or at least admit the possibility that it might be at least a little bit on the high side as compared to all the other data out there? Including even the 1 in 5 study?
So why does every other rape victimization study have higher incident rates than the DOJ numbers?The DOJ study admits to excluding drunk and incapacitated rapes, a major component of campus rapes according to the campus studies. So, @northwesty , are you comfortable using the numbers that exclude these incidents? Should or shouldn’t those victims be counted?
Also, their data collection was done either in person or over the phone. Their numbers say that 1 in 5 reported the rapes to the police. Anonymous survey data says 1 in 20 report. In your world, 3 out of 4 rape victims lie on anonymous surveys. In my world, 3 out of 4 rape victims decline to talk to a stranger about their rapes.
Really? Not from what I hear from my college age kids and all their friends. They say the hook-up culture is getting worse every year.
I don’t’ think you actually mean what you typed, although maybe you do and I just don’t know the statistics you are talking about. An order of magnitude is a factor of 10. 1-2 orders of magnitude is 10-100 times higher. The DOJ stats are not up to 100 times lower than the other reputable studies are they?
Sorry I wasted your time asking a question that hadn’t been answered yet. I guess I should finish all 200 posts before going back and trying to find a post from long ago. I edited it within 5 minutes to add that I saw the answer a couple of pages later.
I mean an order of magnitude. The BOJ statistics for sexual assault for women are 6 per thousand per year. The 2007 College Sexual Assault survey said that 137 college women per thousand report having already been assaulted in thei college career; those students would have been at college already for two years, so that’s more than 60 per thousand.
The US DOJ has the assigned task of compiling crime statistics. They presumably don’t have any incentive to bake the data any particular way. They also would presumably attempt to do their studies in a way that approximates reality. They come up with 2 rapes per thousand female college students per year.
But let’s assume that they totally botch it (they are the govt after all). Let’s also assume they botch totally on the low side and not the high side. So let’s inflate their data by FIVE times. No – let’s inflate their data findings by TEN times to account for every possible fault and objection and difference in nomenclature and structure that Fang and others can come up with. Not good enough? Let’s inflate it by TWENTY times just to be safe.
That gets you to 40 rapes per thousand per year.
Syracuse clocks in at 79 rapes per thousand in one semester and 162 in a year.
So TWENTY times the US DOJ stats still only equals ONE QUARTER of what the Syracuse study says.
What’s more likely? The US DOJ stats, even after being inflated by 20 times, still under-report rapes by 75%?
Or that this Syracuse study is bogus?
“There are three types of lies – lies, damn lies, and statistics.”
― Benjamin Disraeli and Mark Twain
@Cardinal Fang But you are not comparing apples to apples so the order of magnitude reference is misleading. The DOJ numbers include far fewer categories. The two studies define sexual assault COMPLETELY differently.
Also, the newest study DID include (a) and (b) from the questions, at least for the attempted rapes. They were NOT included for the completed rapes.
*definitions added by me for those who might not be familiar with the abbreviations.
That quote from the article says the rapist must have used physical force or victim incapacitation to be included (but only for the completed rapes. Therefore attempted rapes must include the other definitions that were not listed (coercion, etc)
We have one study, the NVCS from the Bureau of Justice, that has low numbers, and whose own agency admits is flawed. Then we have a raft of studies with much higher numbers. Why would we accept the outlier and throw out everything else?
@northwesty, do you have a cite for your DOJ 0.5 number? Could it be the rape rate for all ages? Or the rate of reported sexual assaults?
Did I ever say anything even remotely close to that? I believe the DOJ number are too low. I do not believe they are off by 1000% like you claimed.
This latest study is for freshman only. Anecdotally, the rape rate is much higher for freshmen-- could be four or five times higher than the rate for seniors, or even more. That would be one reason these numbers are higher than other numbers.
That’s a good point.
One reason I am inclined not to believe the really high numbers is the data being higher for HS girls than college girls. I also think that if our daughters were being raped/assaulted at levels even remotely close to what this is reporting that a huge percentage of parents would know and there would be an outcry. There is no way 2 out of 7 HS girls have been forcibly raped or suffered incapacitated rape. IMHO
Threats of violence, physical force or incapacitation. And that’s all. It’s rapes, and attempted rapes, by violence, physical force or incapacitation.
OK. So let’s cut the freshman Syracuse rate by 75% to account for the freshman year effect.
So now the four year normalized Syracuse rape rate (40 per thousand) is TWENTY times higher than the US DOJ stats (2 per thousand). Or four times higher what your surmise is (i.e. DOJ stats should be 5 times higher than reported).
At some point, Fang, can’t you just admit that the numbers are telling you that this Syracuse study is largely BS? The Grand Canyon sized gap in the numbers really can’t be explained any other way.