I don’t want to do research for you, sorry
“@northwesty, the DOJ numbers are ridiculous. I would bet real money on that.
I was a professional gambler. I was in the risk business. I was a floor trader.”
Ridiculous in what way? For argument sake, let’s agree that the incidence level they cite is wrong on the low side.
But you think it is also ridiculous that they show incidence declining? That’s a very different thing and something that they should be able to track pretty easily. You do the same study (with all flaws) in two different years and compare the results.
Is there some reason that you doubt that the incidence of campus assault is going down? If so, please share.
Do you have some data that shows that incidence is increasing or decreasing or going sideways? If so please share. In the absence of any other such data, I’ll go with the Feds data over time which shows the situation is improving.
Because it does matter how big a problem this is or is not. And whether it is getting bigger or smaller over time. And whether the things we are/are not doing are making things better/worse. You really object to that?
Bay, you can’t post a link. Yet you ask others to post links? 
@northwesty, I answered that already.
I didn’t ask you to post a link dstark.
Bay, never? You have never asked me for sustantiation? Never? We have been on here for how many years? Never?
My son was in a frat. I want to see a study that says frat guys don’t rape or engage in sexual assaults more than non members.
You said frat guys don’t sexually assault people more than other guys. I would love to see where you got that info.
This is correct. There is a difference between accuracy and precision. The DOJ stats might not be accurate but there is no reason to assume that they are not precise since the methodology has not changed, etc.
If they are precise then the trends should be valid unless there is a built in bias, and I can’t think of any bias that would change and allow the trend to be invalid.
However, it is quite possible for the trend toward the types of rape measured by the DOJ stats to be declining but the types of sexual assaults (or insert your own term here) that are not included to not be declining.
No, you are wrong. I did not make a claim that fraternity men rape more or less than non-fraternity men.
Attacking each other gets the conversation nowhere. Either get back to the topic and real discussion or let’s just close this.
I don’t like it, not even remotely—but it was quite topical for the discussion.
Dfbdfb, lol.
@dstark and @Bay I don’t know enough about the stats to comment on who is right, but is it not possible that women are at higher risk of being raped at a frat than elsewhere but the overall numbers be lower for frats since there is a smaller population?
Even if that premise is not correct, my fuzzy memory says you both are correct. I am pretty sure I remember one study where women were much more at risk of being raped in a frat than women on campus who did not go to a frat. I am also almost positive that I remember some statistics/ a study that shows a woman outside of college is more at risk than a woman in college.
So, I think you both could be right. Truce?
@dfbdfb can you tell us what it is about the article that you do not like? Do you think she was (raped/sexually assaulted/subjected to boorish behavior) in each incident, what?
The discussion about fraternity rape is off topic, and I don’t want this thread closed because of me. There were several other threads on it that dstark can easily pull up if he wants to go over it again. I won’t be posting about this again and I’m sorry for the back-and-forth but dstark has the ability to bait me into it.
@TVcaster,
Of course.
I am just trying to understand what bay is saying.
I would be happy if frat guys didn’t rape more.
You would need to make sure that the statistics weren’t comparing women that don’t go to frats and women that don’t go to parties. You need a statistically similar pool of women - those that go to frat parties and those that go to parties (but not at frats). You could study two identical colleges one that has frats and one that doesn’t, but the pool would be smallish since most large universities do have frats. That’s the problem with statistics, it can’t explain gross generalizations that get made (gross as in many, not gross as in ugh).
"This is correct. There is a difference between accuracy and precision. The DOJ stats might not be accurate but there is no reason to assume that they are not precise since the methodology has not changed, etc.
If they are precise then the trends should be valid unless there is a built in bias, and I can’t think of any bias that would change and allow the trend to be invalid."
Thanks TV for confirming that.
So we may not want to rely on the US DOJ to tell us how much campus sex assault there is going on. But we should be able to rely on their findings on campus assault trends.
What they say is that the rate of sexual assault has been falling steadily since 1995. 2013 was down 55% from a peak in 1997.
Any ideas on why that surprising (to me at least) trend is happening?
All violent crime levels fell in the studies if I recall. There’s no reason to try and find a unique reason for the decline in rape. Whatever caused the decline in violent crime had a probability of impacting the rape statistics…i would guess… but my Statistics classes were many decades ago.
@ dfbdfb, I’ll answer your question, but, frankly, I don’t think it is at all relevant to the subject of this thread. I don’t think ## 2 and 3 are criminal activities. My hunch is that #1 isn’t either, but there’s insufficient info to say that definitively. We don’t know how the older man “guilt tripped” her. I can imagine some scenarios in which the method used constituted coercion in the criminal sense…but without more info, I really can’t say.
IMO, Ms. Young is making the accusation that “feminists” are turning these into rape accusations up out of whole cloth. As far as I know, NOBODY is calling the scenarios rape. BTW, this is not the first article on the subject Ms. Young has written. Google her name and rape and you’ll find more articles in which she claims that feminists are all encouraging young women to regard unpleasant sexual encounters as rape. And, after reading a few of these articles, it sure seems like she has an agenda.
Note that none of these 3 situations involved alcohol and we know that the majority of campus rapes do. So, here’s another situation: http://www.pressherald.com/2015/05/26/bail-for-bowdoin-college-student-accused-of-on-campus-rape-increased-to-5000/ and http://www.pressherald.com/2015/05/25/bowdoin-college-student-charged-with-raping-woman-on-campus/
Here’s the gist of it. A female college student calls the campus escort service for a ride early in the morning. When they respond, she asks if they’ve seen a particular male student. She then says she’s “worried” about him. Why? Well, he raped her earlier and got upset about it and took off. She thinks he might kill himself.
The escort service calls the police. Under questioning, she says they were doing vodka shots and eating pizza in his dorm for for several hours. He then picked her up, carried her into the bedroom and penetrated her. She did not agree to this verbally or by responding. She didn’t say no. She didn’t try to fight him off. She did start crying. He took off. Apparently, he then sent her a text message which said something like “I’m a monster.” He is now in jail.
Assume the facts are as portrayed in the articles. (Yes, I know that’s a big assumption and one which may be false.) Is this rape and/or sexual assault? Assuming you think it is one of them, how likely is it that the male can be found guilty “beyond a reasonable doubt?” Bowdoin is conducting its own investigation. If the facts are as portrayed in the article, and he is NOT convicted of a crime, should Bowdoin discipline him?
Again, I’m assuming for argument’s sake that the facts are as I’ve summarized them.
Well Jonri, what are your answers to your questions?