A philosophical view of "Chances"

I am still learning my way around this site (is it me or is it a lot easier to go back out to Google to do a search for Prep
School posts, then to search using this site’s own search tool?).

Anyway, looking at the College Discussions I came across this post in re college admissions:

"Most of the top schools have admit rates between 5.5 and 12%. A whole lot of HIGHLY qualified students will be turned down. If you are not a recruited athlete or a legacy applicant, your admission chances probably won’t be any better than the school’s overall admit rate. As long as you understand that, you have realistic expectations. "

That seems eminently sensible, doesn’t?

If we were to apply that same logic to prep schools, maybe the admit rates for the “top” school are 10%-20%. Other than that, and the polite omission of “dev” candidates, would you say the same logic applies to top BS? If not, why not?

Based on my very short time here as well, it seems true. One thing that seems to differ based on my research here and a couple of interviews under “our” belts is that prep schools look at the whole student and fit. They are likely super-impressed with the over-achieving 99% student but they seemingly are seeking best fit which may not be that super star. You will probably see some of the threads from last year that list student after student who tested in the tippity top yet were denied admission. I think there’s much more than academics that go into to the admission committee’s decision.

What is different between boarding school and college admissions is financial aid. There are simply more large endowments on the college side. So, if you need a lot of FA for boarding school, that is more likely to be a barrier. This isn’t speculative. Even the boarding schools comment on this directly. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/15/your-money/for-boarding-schools-an-evolving-financial-aid-philosophy.html

I addressed this topic a few years ago in a post with a title like “If HADES is the BS equivalent of HYP+SM”…

My point of that post was that an applicant would be crazy to apply only to schools with HYP+SM levels of selectivity, so why do so many do so when it comes to BS?

It’s not a perfect analog, though…because unlike college, most people have an acceptable back up in their local public school and/or local private day schools.

I do think the point that “Why ask for ‘chances’ when you can just look at the average admit rate and assume they will apply to you?” is a good one…I think many people feel they live in Garrison Keillor’s mythical Lake Woebegon (where all the women are strong, all the men are good looking, and all the children are above average).

LOL, SevenDad. Sorry if it was addressed a few years ago. Is there anything that has NOT been addressed here, before, I sometimes wonder? Probably just the threads where people give you every stat, plus weight, height and social, and then want to be chanced (“anonymously”). I guess each of those is “new” in their way!

I would imagine many (most) users of this site are here for 6mo.s-1yr and then gone. It is very nice that people stay around and pay it forward; their accumulated wisdom simply cannot be found anywhere else. But for newbies, it seems almost as though you aren’t allowed to ask or say anything, because people who have been here for years have BTDT. It isn’t always easy to find the exact question (esp using the search engine embedded here). And I started here by just reading maybe a year’s worth of posts, so I didn’t dive in without a little bit of research.

OTOH, there is a real effort here it seems to keep the forum tidy and well-organized. That’s something many boards would do well to emulate.

Mathmusicmadness, Ah yes, that makes sense. IIRC from other’s posts there is virtually no aid other than that provided by a given school for its own student body, in stark contrast to college. Thanks for the link, too.

MA andME Mom, thanks.

No worries! I wasn’t trying to communicate a “so what else is new” attitude, btw. At least not intentionally…just trying to chime in on your thread.

BTW…I found that old thread from 2012 (if you care to read all 127 comments contributed):

http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/prep-school-parents/1332717-if-hades-is-the-bs-equivalent-of-hyp-ms.html

Thank you, SevenDad, for that at for all the many posts I have read from you!

I just had a chance to read through that old thread; very interesting. It ends up touching on a lot more than just chances, but also includes thoughtful discussion about…

  1. the value of a top BS education (be it bragging rights, a potentially misplaced assumption about college admissions, or, hey, maybe just the experience in and of itself),
    2.the validity of a “go big or go home” application strategy,

    and then veering into discussions about…
  2. BS-parent relations,
  3. preferential treatment of big donors,
    5, socializing of students from varied socioeconomic backgrounds, and more!

    And a bit of a kerfuffle in the middle for entertainment.

I recommend it.

We haven’t seen such thoughtful, spirited, and multi-voiced discussion on this board in a long time. I miss it. I miss Exie. :frowning:

I just read the whole thread. It has it all!

I would urge applicants to expand the search beyond the same handful of schools.

I’ve pointed out before that smaller schools may have smaller endowments, but they still give out financial aid. So (making up numbers, just to illustrate the concept), a top school with a huge endowment may give out full rides to half their student body. So for each class, some 200 students receive a full ride. That’s wonderful.

On the other hand, there are many more qualified students applying than the school can take. I see Andover now has about a 7% admit rate–and I bet it’s more competitive for FA applicants. So if you restrict your search to that group of schools, the odds are really grim.

On the other hand, there are many fine schools which do give out generous aid. They can’t afford to give aid to everyone who needs it, but they do give out generous grants to quite a few students. If you look at Boarding School Review, you’ll see that on average, boarding schools give financial aid to 35% of their students. The average grant is $20,000. As some students will receive more, some less, that means that there are students receiving generous financial aid at other boarding schools.

Many of those schools offer academic programs which prepare students well for college.

Periwinkle,

In re your comments “Andover now has about a 7% admit rate–and I bet it’s more competitive for FA applicants.”…

Somewhere I read (probably on CC, but it’s all become a blur) that the rule of thumb was FP acceptance rates are 2x the overall rate, and 100%FA acceptances are half the overall rate. Sounds a little extreme to me (though it would help DC).

I know that the topic of expanding the search is a bit hackneyed on these boards, I simply thought the line from the college boards was very succinct for those who are always pondering chances, so I posted it here.

It seems a fair answer to my question would be, there are 2 differences:

  1. The need for FP is more of a hindrance in BS than in college, changing the admit dynamics
  2. There is a contingent of “go big or go home” that might swing for the fences on BS, since they always have a public option to fall back on. That might mean the quality of the BS applicant pool has “fatter tails” than the college applicant pool.

There is always that option for colleges, as well. Although depending on your home state, the applicant may not like the option.

Yes, Ski, I should have been clearer and said that the existence of a public AND free option for HS may skew the applicant pool.

@Periwinkle – re “On the other hand, there are many more qualified students applying than the school can take. I see Andover now has about a 7% admit rate–and I bet it’s more competitive for FA applicants. So if you restrict your search to that group of schools, the odds are really grim.”

I’m not sure this would be true for Andover as their admissions claim to be need-blind. There have been discussions here about whether any school can truly be need-blind based on clues in the application, but at least that is the claim. For schools without this policy, it seems that FP vs FA makes a big difference.

If the desire to go to BS is not about the overall experience but rather about the specific programs and/or academic offerings, then schools are not all the same. If you want the ecology program at Choate, this is not offered and many schools (any others?). If you want to do math with the IMO coach, you need to go to Exeter. For students in this situation, go big or go home seems reasonable as long as you understand that “go home” is a real possibility.

Gunga,

Personally, I think “go big or go home” is a entirely defensible strategy. But you are right, people’s voices trail off with the second half of that motto!

For our family, we as parents really hate to give up four years with our DC (well, some of our DC, but a few of them, well… LOL!). Moreover, whether you can afford it or not, one most soberly consider the expenditure. Even if you can pay it, you have to ask yourself if it is the best use of those funds … we sponsor children in other countries and I could educate fifty or more of them for a year, for what we will pay for a year at a BS. It does make one think.

So, no one should spend that kind of money and give up time with loved ones unless the opportunity is, all around, significantly more attractive for your child(ren).

In our case, one might say we have a “go at least medium or go home” strategy.

“If the desire to go to BS is not about the overall experience but rather about the specific programs and/or academic offerings, then schools are not all the same. If you want the ecology program at Choate, this is not offered and many schools (any others?). If you want to do math with the IMO coach, you need to go to Exeter. For students in this situation, go big or go home seems reasonable as long as you understand that ‘go home’ is a real possibility.”

@gungablue: How many kids fall into this particular bucket (of wanting to be part of a specific program)? It can’t be that many kids in total, and surely a small fraction of the total BS applicant pool. Think about the number of prospective applicants who come on the forum every year knowing close to nothing about some of the schools to which they claim they have interest in…some not knowing much about schools where they have applied/are admitted to? Not that the forum is a perfect representation of the applicant pool, but it is a reliable/annually replenished sample.

I have stated here previously that perhaps 5% (maybe even 2%) of the BS applicant pool is at such an elevated level of academics that one of the “top 30” or so schools would fail to provide a sufficient amount of academic rigor. But I’m sure that kid/parents of that kid are pretty aware of their unique needs and is/are fairly well versed in their options. For every kid who wants to study with the IMO teacher, there have to be 100 that are stressing about breaking 90% on the SSAT.

I will cling to my theory that many applicants/parents of applicants apply to certain schools simply because they are the name-brand schools…with an unvoiced appreciation for the status factor as well as a hope that it will be a springboard to Ivies.

SevenDad, I tend to agree with you in re your last 'graph.

As a sidebar, in re your point about these boards being a reliable sample. I wonder about that. It is just a feel and not backed by any analysis, but it seems to me that a lot of people use CC because they are not in a position to get information or support from a private school (either they are in public or in a school that is not focussed on matriculations of 8th graders), and/or they are not in a position or don’t want to hire a consultant, and/or they live in an area or travel in circles where there is very little word of mouth about BS options.

I am not entirely sure what you meant by “reliable” sample in this context, but I wonder if it is at all a representative sample? In other words, their ignorance (and I mean that in a non-pejorative vein) is the very reason they self select to the CC boards.

I genuinely agree with this thinking. I will add what makes a school “significantly more attractive” depends on what local options one has and how each individual family evaluates the benefits of attending a certain BS vs the sacrifices they would have to make. It is a personal decision, which is why it is hard to get a consensus on this issue.

For those who need financial aid, when searching for schools to apply, the well known schools are actually low hanging fruits. Outside those few usual suspects, to choose which school to apply to for a better chance of getting FA is easier said than done. I think CC is a great resource to find word of mouth referrals from those who have good experience with certain schools.