<p>Here's my real example: I was somewhat obsessed with the Academic Index, but I'll be the first to tell you this: it's totally outdated, even though the book isn't <em>that</em> old (about 7 or 8 years, I believe). I had okay extras...people here would probably call them bad, and they certainly weren't great, but I'd estimate them as--at BEST--average in the highly competitive HYP, etc. applicant pool. Honestly, they were probably somewhat below average. However, I did have good stats: </p>
<p>2290 SAT I, 2320 SAT II, 4 AP scores of 5, "only" 3.82 unw GPA, but-->14/770 rank (top 2%), National Merit Finalist, a few other smaller academic awards, positive recs (didn't read, but they certainly could not have hurt me), and a well-written essay. I was a low academic 8 (226 AI score). My admissions decisions: </p>
<p>Yale, Princeton--reject. Applied SCEA at Yale and was initially deferred. Double legacy at Princeton.
Columbia (the college), Brown--waitlisted. No hooks of any kind. </p>
<p>I feel pretty confident in saying that I was not rejected/waitlisted because I wasn't smart enough. Perhaps my GPA was a slight turnoff (although with my rank I doubt it), but really, I just think that I didn't have good enough extras. It takes very little to fall out of the 7% of admitted students at a Yale or Princeton (in the RD round, I mean). Because I'm finicky, I chose 4 of the most selective universities to apply to and none of the rest of the top 20/25, but your question did ask about HYPMS, so here it is. </p>
<p>Other factors to consider: upper-middle class white suburban female applicant from a major Metropolitan area. Also, I attended a public school without a record of Ivy and Ivy-type admissions, and I do believe that it hurt me, both in my recs, which probably weren't as savvy-ly written as those from experienced recomenders, and in my extras. Yes, I could have done more, but honestly, at my relatively average public high school, the opportunity for great extras was severely limited to those with great athletic or musical ability. There was no debate team, no serious academic teams, no teachers nominating their students for national awards, no nothin'. </p>
<p>Conclusion: if you are not a minority, do not have any sort of significant award or extracurricular distinction, and do not have incredible legacies/developmental potential, there basically is no academic profile that can guarantee or even give you a very high chance of admission to HYPMS. Not very many years ago at all, I would have gotten into most or all of the Ivies that I applied to, I would imagine. But not anymore.</p>