<p>These numbers are based the number of apps rec’d divided by the traditional number of acceptances the schools send out each year. Columbia saw a huge increase in apps and therefore the large drop in rate. Simple (but brutal) math.</p>
<p>This doesn’t necessarily mean a similar decrease in true selectivity. Some adcoms have said that they just find themselves rejecting more of the same kid. Others, however, have said that this year was especially brutal, with Dartmouth admitting they had to adjust their standards of admission “on the fly” this year because so many exceptional students applied.</p>
<p>So are the college acceptance rates going to keep plunging, or are they eventually going to turn around and go back up? I can’t think of any reason why people would stop applying to top schools, other than believing that they have no shot. But if people applied to schools with acceptance rates less than 10%, then they’re obviously not discouraged by slim chances. This should be interesting.</p>
<p>I’m skeptical of these projected (not actual) admit rates based on such crude back-of-the-envelope math, except at the very top of the food chain where Harvard will continue to get about 75% of those it accepts. Are there really that many more well-qualified individuals applying to top colleges and universities this year? Or is it a similar number of well-qualified individuals as last year, but with each applicant applying, on average, to a larger number of schools? If the latter, then not all these schools can reduce their admit rate and still maintain their yield, because it just means more schools competing over the same bodies. Some schools’ yield will decline. So, for example, if in the past their median admit applied to 7 competitor institutions and was admitted to 4, and now their median admit applies to 10 competitor institutions and is admitted to 6, then it’s likely they’ll lose a higher percentage of those cross-admit battles just because they’re competing against offers from a larger number of schools, on average, for each admitted student. And their competitors are in the same boat. If that’s the case, then some of these schools may need to admit a larger number of applicants in order to fill up their freshman class. Not that their admit rate would necessarily increase over past years, but with a declining yield they may need to admit a similar percentage of a larger admit pool, holding their admit rate more-or-less constant. But that’s all speculation, too. The truth is, we don’t know at this point who applied, or what their qualifications were, or how many schools they applied to, or where they’ll be admitted (because for most schools at this elite level those decisions are not yet made), or how many of those admitted will actually decide to enroll at any given school.</p>
<p>I think the Daily Beast did college applicants a huge disservice by publishing this nonsense. They don’t know what the admissions rates are going to be. They just assumed the number admitted (and the yield) would remain constant, and all that changes is the denominator, i.e., the number of applications. There’s enough anxiety among HS seniors without stirring the pot needlessly. We’ll see what the admit rates are once all the decisions are made.</p>