<p>So basically, there are about 2000 more freshman applicants this year competing for 200 less spots. A lot of this is due to the fact that UCSB overenrolled last year (they were expecting around a 20% yield rate but had a 23.1% yield rate instead). So assuming the yield rate prediction is adjusted, then not only will there be more students competing for more spaces, but UCSB will probably offer proportionally less offers of admission compared to last year to match this new yield rate. </p>
<p>In a hypothetical situation, if the yield rate stays the same as last year (23.1%), then offers of admission would only be granted to 16,833 students (3900=.23*x). Divided by the total number of applications (46,672), this could mean a hypothetical admission rate of 36%. All while the applicant pool is stronger (GPA is up by .3 and SAT is up by 13 points).</p>
<p>If you use the typical yield rate prior to last year (20%), the admission rate would still be around 41.8% overall. Don't want to scare all the freshman applications, but just wanted to present realistic expectations for admission. There are many other factors this year that can affect these statistics a lot as well. Good luck to everyone!</p>
<p>58,000? That’s CRAZY! That’s depressing… I’m probably not going to get in now, but I felt that coming. How are the UC’s supposed to cater to all qualified California residents if each campus is seeing a larger surge in applications year after year?</p>
<p>You obviously put some time into your analysis and you may be right. However there’s one bit of info the UC administrators have that we don’t, and that can make a big difference. How many more unique did the UC system & UCSB receive? With the UC app process its easy to apply to multiple campuses. Suppose people are worried about getting into UCs given all the stuff in the press, the admission rate shrinking every year, etc. They might be applying to campuses that they would not have last year.</p>
<p>To play devils advocate, suppose the UC system got exactly as many unique applicants as last year, but this year 2K more people decided to apply to UCSB that didn’t last year. If the worried applicants who applied to more schools actually were going to get into their higher choices, now they get a UCSB acceptance too and will tend to enroll in their other choices. UCSB can accept them because they won’t be part of the yield. And the UC system sees all the stats; who applies where, what their stats are, etc. which can help them figure out if this is what’s happening. So its possible that the acceptance rate at UCSB will actually rise if the app rate has been driven by students who wouldn’t have applied in the past.</p>
<p>I got in with a 3.9 and a 26 act…and I was invited to the reception near the LAX…so I think it’s inflated by the kids with 3.5s who think they have a great shot…</p>