UCSB Fall 2011 Admit Rate Prediction

Colleges and Universities A-Z University of California - Santa Barbara
1

<p>Well as all of you know UCSB had a 45.5% admit rate last year (21241/46733), down from 48.3% (21584/44717) from Fall 2009 </p>

<p><a href="http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/admissions/campuses/files/santabarbara.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/admissions/campuses/files/santabarbara.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>But what most of you probably dont know is that it had a 18.6% matriculation rate (3811 students), down from a high of 23.1% in Fall 2009 (4871 students)</p>

<p><a href="http://www.ucop.edu/news/factsheets/2010/frosh_cccsirs_table4.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.ucop.edu/news/factsheets/2010/frosh_cccsirs_table4.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>Predicting that UCSB will recieve another increase of applicants and considering that it had only a 18.6% matriculant last year, as well accounting for the fact that UCSB estimates that they will enroll 3,900 students last year...</p>

<p><a href="http://www.admissions.ucsb.edu/Pdf/Shoreline.pdf%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.admissions.ucsb.edu/Pdf/Shoreline.pdf&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>I have have come to the conclusion that UCSB will have around a 41% admit rate assuming a 20% matriculant rate and another increase of freshman applcants. </p>

<p>Math:</p>

<p>Fall 2010 applicants: 46733
Prediction for Fall 2011: 48000</p>

<p>UCSB enrollment goal: 3900
predicted matriculant rate: 20%
prediction of how many students will be admit (3900*5= 19500)</p>

<p>In Conclusion: 19500/48000= 40.6% admit rate (which I do not want to believe since UCSB is my #1 school but the math points toward that conclusion.</p>

<p>I am looking forward to what you guys have to say and hoping you guys find some flaws in my study. Like I said I certainly hope I am wrong. But I just wanna put what i think out there for people to see.</p>

2

<p>Competition gets even harder and the economy gets worse so it’ll keep following that trend.</p>

3

<p>The actual entering freshman class in Fall 2010 is about 4300 students. I would guess the same admission rate, 40%, and 42% including students admitted off the waitlist.</p>

4

<p>Read in our paper yesterday (The Daily Nexus). . . .</p>

<p>UCSB hinted that admission rates are going to be lower. </p>

<p>I’m trying to find the exact article online. . . .It should be here, in UCSB’s paper website:</p>

<p>[The</a> Daily Nexus | The University of California, Santa Barbara’s independent, student-run newspaper.](<a href=“http://www.dailynexus.com/]The”>http://www.dailynexus.com/)</p>

5

<p>Another thing to keep in mind is that the mid tier UCs want to increase out of state enrollment:</p>

<p>[UC</a> campuses move to recruit more out-of-state students - Los Angeles Times](<a href=“http://articles.latimes.com/2010/nov/14/local/la-me-uc-recruit-20101115]UC”>http://articles.latimes.com/2010/nov/14/local/la-me-uc-recruit-20101115)</p>

<p>The Santa Barbara, Davis and Irvine campuses say they have mounted serious out-of-state recruitment efforts this year for the first time.</p>

<p>They all average around 5% non-residents, and the aim is to increase that to 10% in the coming years.</p>

6

<p>I think it is very obivious that that percentage is going down this year. My OP was a prediction based on an analysis of a couple sources. my guess is that it is going to be around 40.6%. </p>

<p>Anyone else wanna give a guess of what it is going to be this year?</p>

7

<p>The 8% tuition fee increase just passed too, that should knock down one or two more percentage point(s)</p>