<p>My younger son was accepted from every school with an acceptance rate over a certain number (around 25% which Chicago was for EA). However for my older son, it was all over the map. I do think it’s useful to remember that if you have middle of the pack scores for a school with a 50% acceptance rate, that’s a 50% chance at best.</p>
<p>mathmom,</p>
<p>that is what I try to explain to some parents who think that their student is a ‘lock" at a college when their child “matches” the published statistics. If your student is in the middle of the pack according to the college website’s numbers, and the school accepts approximately 30% of applicants…then you have about a 30% chance of getting in. If your numbers are a bit higher, your chances might go up a bit…as long as the school does not feel perceived as a safety. But that the applicant should always keep in mind that only 30% are accepted…and, while a "match’ a match is not an automatic admission.</p>
<p>At D’s true private admit safety she paid special attention to the “why” essay to explain how the school would be a good fit and hopefully circumvent the “Are you really interested in us, or just using us as a safety?” issue. She emphasized small classes, research and shadowing opportunities (big fish in little pond) and that she was undecided about a specific direction in her broader field of interest so an environment that provided her with lots of hands on opportunities would be beneficial even though her academics are in the top tier. She also noted the possibility of sophomore standing based on automatic credit awards for IB diploma. They personally called with a large merit offer, so it worked. Again, this was a safety and not Chicago, but I think the approach was sound and could work in the Lewis and Clark case.</p>
<p>Pleaseadvise,</p>
<p>A 3.6 unweighted GPA is pretty low for Michigan. Their middle 50% is 3.7-3.9 and their average GPA is 3.8. Top 10% of class helps, but probably only a little; 92% of their entering class were in the top 10% in HS. SAT scores are well within their range but not knock-your-socks-off, and historically they’ve said they weigh GPA more heavily than test scores because they think it’s a better indicator of likely academic performance. Though their admissions website no longer says that, there may still be some residue of that view among their admissions committee. Based on the GPA, I would not have counted Michigan as a “match.”</p>
<p>The good news is that a deferral is not a denial. My guess is they looked at the app and said, “Well, this is someone we could accept, but the record isn’t so outstanding that it’s an obviously easy case; so let’s defer and see who else turns up in the RD pool.” Could go either way. But keep in mind that they got a record number of apps this year and they’ll want to use that (if they can) to strengthen the profile of their entering class. That means your student is competing against their targets for this year, and not necessarily last year’s (or earlier) stats. But it remains to be seen whether they’re able to meet those new targets, and where your student fits into that equation.</p>
<p>(By the way, contrary to an earlier poster’s suggestion, Michigan most definitely does consider ECs, quite heavily in fact, so that could help. They use a “holistic” admissions process that considers numerous factors; you can download a .pdf of the actual rating sheet they use to evaluate candidates from the admissions office website.).</p>
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<p>In general Id say thats close to true, but it is sort of nuanced. As is everything in this holistic admissions business.</p>
<p>I’m sort of winging this but -</p>
<p>Look at Browns data which is probably reasonably representative
[Brown</a> Admission: Facts & Figures](<a href=“Undergraduate Admission | Brown University”>Undergraduate Admission | Brown University)</p>
<p>First, not everyone scores equally well in all sections. I read in The Early Admissions Game that if you want to find the actual median composite score at a school you have to add the subsections and subtract a little around 3%. So if the median scores add up to 2100 the actual median composite score is around 2035 - 2050 or so. And perfect scores in all sections are still very rare. So your chances go up significantly, but if you look at 36 ACT it is still only around three times the overall admit rate which is very low.</p>
<p>Even rarer is being valedictorian with perfect scores at a large competitive school or elite private school. That has got to help your chances, but I doubt that unless you went to one of a handful of schools or have some hook even that brings it much above 50% at a school like Brown. Of course Im just guessing.</p>
<p>If you look at Browns data for the subsections you will see that the correlation between SAT score and admission rate is not linear. It falls off a cliff at the lower end (around 600), and then grows slowly up to the median, where it is around the level of the school overall admit rate. Past the median level the chances of admission accelerate more rapidly, but even for an 800 score (in a single section mind you) they never get much over twice the overall admit rate.</p>