<p>I’m sure the Bronfman works at Penn, too.</p>
<p>The key question is what are you risking if you don’t apply to Penn ED, and what are you gaining. Some of that question is “chances” analysis, and some really depends on how you view your various choices. </p>
<p>In the chances department, the question isn’t whether you lose something on the chance of getting into Huntsman by not applying ED. You do. How much you lose, though, is subject to question. You look like you would be a strong candidate in the spring, too. On the other side of the ledger, what do you gain by not applying to Penn ED? You get a chance – a gamble – that you will be able to attend Yale, which you like more. You look like a strong candidate for Yale, too, but it’s hard to think that you have better than, say, a 25% chance of admission there. (I don’t think SCEA really matters here. If you don’t apply to Penn ED, then of course you will apply SCEA to Yale, but you might not get a real answer from Yale until April.)</p>
<p>So the question is comparing the value of a meaningful, but uncertain shot at Yale to some increase in the chance that you will not be accepted either at Yale or Huntsman (because you could be accepted at Penn, but not to the Huntsman program), and that you would wind up attending a lower choice than either.</p>
<p>From an objective standpoint, there are any number of universities where you can get a great education in IR and Mandarin – two interests that are not exactly obscure. Yale and Penn are among them, but they aren’t the only ones. Provided you apply to an appropriate set of them, you are going to get into some. Really, again from an objective standpoint, you are not likely giving up much if you are forced to attend one of these that isn’t Yale or Penn (Huntsman). You can probably pretty much duplicate the Huntsman program on a self-help basis anywhere, so all you would lose would be the spiffiness of the Huntsman brand vs. whatever other brand you would have.</p>
<p>So this is the question you should ask yourself: Is a 25% chance of attending Yale worth a 25% chance that you will wind up at, say, Johns Hopkins or Cornell (both excellent choices for you)? (It could also be Harvard or Stanford, or Penn without Huntsman, but that doesn’t help the analysis much.) (I should also emphasize that my 25% figure is based on nothing more than attaching a number to “a realistic but less-than-likely possibility”.) For me, that would be really tough – both because Huntsman is a great program, and Penn a great university, so a 25% chance at Yale can’t be worth so much more, and because your lower realistic possibilities are not really much worse than either Yale or Penn/Huntsman. So you wouldn’t be gaining a lot by taking a shot at Yale, but you wouldn’t be risking a lot, either. You may see things differently, though, so do your own analysis.</p>