I suspect the attrition at my DC’s small day/boarding K-12 is extraordinarily high. This year, 50% of the day 8th graders are leaving (class size is <20). Mostly, entire families are relocating but a couple kids are leaving for boarding school. The administrations’s position is this is to be expected and not a reflection of the school, but that doesn’t mesh with my experience or anecdotal evidence. Does anyone have data on attrition from their private school wherein middle schoolers have the option of staying for high school? Thanks in advance.
At several K-12 near us (mostly day), many leave in order to go to BS, sometimes because it’s a family tradition, other times because it’s a better fit. Others leave to attend private schools (day and boarding) that start in 9th grade (i.e., weren’t options for the lower grades.) I’ve even seen a few go the homeschool/tutoring route to accommodate participation in a sport at an elite level.
I know you’re looking for data, and I don’t have that. I feel like this IS inevitable, though. It seems highly unlikely to me (dare I say ridiculous?!) that lower schools have the ability to effectively screen for the best students for the next 13 years when they are “interviewing” 4 year olds for kindergarten. Over time, who these kids are and what they need to learn best will show itself. And as that happens, the type of school in which each one will thrive will come to light, and for a good portion of them, it won’t be where they are. Of course, some will be doing great and will stay put.
Offhand, I can only think of one that is a BS (most of the others are day schools, which again makes sense because boarding isn’t an option for your first grader), and that’s Westtown. You might want to look at their website and see if you can get a sense of how many of the high school students were there were there for all 12 years. (They used to require the high school students to board for at least 2 of the 4 years, but I think they’ve relaxed that because it was very much at odds with what a lot of local families wanted.)
It is a good time for a transition. BS, public HS, different day school. I wouldn’t read a lot into it unless they are having trouble filling the 9th grade class with newcomers.
Where we are, 50% attrition is on the higher end but not uncommon. Especially now. The two primary reasons we hear and see:
- Economy. Most kids who are 14 years old have been in that school since K or Grade 1. That's 2005-2006-2007. The world is a very different place for many families. If the LPS or even parochial school (about half the price of an elite local day school) is available, now is a logical time for them to exit.
- Sports. Many of the kids who leave small day schools do so because small sports teams don't offer the same development opportunities or in some case, even all the sports themselves. For example, hockey and football are fairly popular sports in our area and through Middle School, it doesn't really matter, but they want to play for HS teams. We see that this trend is increasing. In @bookwormsmom case, that mayt be even more significant given size.
Another reason why kids might want to leave a small K-12 school after middle school is that they have “outgrown” the place. Although the school keeps going for another four years, they might have been there for nine years already and are just tired of it always being the same kids, same buildings, same rituals, same administration, etc.
If the school only had 20 kids in its 8th grade class, it doesn’t take much of what would otherwise be normal turnover to change the statistics. All it takes is a couple of buddies deciding they want something else.
At my D’s private school, it looks like there will be between 5-10% attrition for her class going into 9th grade next year. 1 or 2 are moving out of state, 1 is transferring to public school for a combination of financial and athletic reasons, and several are transferring to larger private schools in the area. I don’t have data from previous years for this school though.
The other element is that leaving–just like staying–is contagious. If most of your friends are staying, on the margin, you will stay. But if some are leaving–even if they are going different places, that can snowball and spike an individual year’s stats higher. It can also exacerbate the issue that @EarlyMTNester highlights–if your friends are leaving, the sense of “outgrowing” will be greater.
At my junior boarding/day school around 50/100 members of the eighth grade class leave. Mostly these are legacies or students going to the BS across the road. Applying out is super popular here, and probably only 1-3 kids decide to go back to their LPS each year. Many would just rather start BS as freshmen, seeing as most end up there anyway.
Thank you all for your input. Yes, the many reasons listed above resonate, so it looks like one would have a hard time arguing attrition rates prove unusually high dissatisfaction in our case. Indications are there though if the school wants to entertain them, although I think many people pull punches on exit interviews so as not to offend. When my DC was in kindergarten at this school, there were 16 students. Only three will still be here at the start of 9th grade, and one of them is the child of a staff member. That’s essentially 12.5% on track to be lifers which I’m sure is much lower than private day schools in NYC or Boston. I think I’m just sad bc I really would have liked this school to work out. There’s so much animosity between the administration and parent body it’s hard not to feel bitter. Oh well. On to bigger and better things. 