Basically, take what you see on these forums with a grain of salt and don’t be discouraged by what the people on here say. I posted last year and the people who responded basically said that I was delusional in thinking I had a chance at any of the schools I was applying to (including my safety). At the end, I ended up getting into 3 top 30 schools, my safety, and the school I ended up attending (through a scholarship program) before I had to rescind all applications (ED). A lot of the people here probably know just as much as you do, so trust yourself and your application.
1 Like
That is wonderful for you. Congratulations on going to your “dream school!!!” I mean this sincerely and hope my D will have the same experience this year.
However, please remember that most posters on this site are trying their very best to give good advice and set reasonable expectations based on their personal experience and observations. No one has a crystal ball. Personally I’d rather have low expectations, several safeties and be very happily surprised by good news in the end. That doesn’t mean one shouldn’t reach for the stars too.
Best of luck in your college life.
3 Likes
Better to have plenty of caution and be pleasantly surprised later than to be overconfident and be unpleasantly surprised later. Plenty of the latter tends to come up in April each year.
5 Likes
It’s called “statistics”. It is a very rough estimate of probabilities, based on a comparison of an applicant’s profile, and the proportion of applicants in the past who were accepted.
HOWEVER, nobody is 1% accepted, 50% accepted, or 99% accepted. An applicant is, at the end, either accepted or rejected. Admission has no fractions.
So when posters tell a prospective applicant that they have a 1% chance, that means that there are a number of applicants, with similar profiles, who were accepted.
The fact that you were accepted (congratulations, BTW), just means that being accepted with a similar profile is possible, not that it is likely, or that the chances are even all that good. You are an anecdote, and anecdotes do not provide good guidance for life choices.
Basically, just because you, as an individual, were accepted to three T-30 colleges, does not mean that other applicants with similar profiles have a good chance at getting the same results, just that they have a chance. They also have a chance at winning at the slots in Vegas, but they really shouldn’t choose a trip to Vegas as their plan for paying for college.
BTW, weren’t you a Posse nominee? If you were a Posse finalist, there would be a good chance that their college partners would look at you as a possible student, even if your stats were below their average.
2 Likes