So basically I have one college counselor who says she is almost certain I will get into either Pomona, Pitzer, Swarthmore, or Haverford, and another college guidance counselor who says she is almost certain I will not get into any of those schools. Both are very experienced. One has been a head guidance counselor for 10+ years and the other used to be an admissions officer at an Ivy League but is now a guidance counselor. Both also know me/my application very well.
My question is, how can both counselors have such differing opinions?
My dad believes that both guidance counselors are right because admissions is a giant crapshoot and at this point, it is all up to luck. I have a little more faith in the system and I do not believe admissions is this unpredictable and seemingly arbitrary. Can anyone shed some light on this?
Are these both school counselors or is one a private counselor? My initial thought is that one of these people doesn’t have access to the information of who else is applying and where from your school.
You also might have one person who wants to be sure that you manage your expectations and have safety/match schools.
Have you pulled the Common Data Set (CDS) from each of those colleges and are your stats in the top 25%? Top 50%? Have you taken all the classes those colleges require?
While there is certainly a measure of luck involved, one counselor might be familiar enough with those schools to know if you’ve got the qualities they are looking for or not.
Pull the CDS and each picture may become more clear.
No one is “almost certain” to get into any of those schools, which have acceptance rates from 9 to 20% overall, but less in the RD round. Unless you have a strong hook, which you haven’t disclosed, they are all reaches.
It’s hard to tell. My daughter’s college counselor at school dismissed her number one choice as a reach and actively tried to discourage her from “wasting” her ED (you’d think she’d have the better idea from a school perspective) but her private counselor thought she had a decent chance (while still being a “bit” of a reach). My daughter did get in ED - but one of her friends with much better stats and better ECs got rejected RD in the same cycle last year, and another kid from the school this year with apparently a stellar academic and EC record got rejected ED. So it’s hard to fault the school counselor’s view even though it was wrong for my daughter. And that’s the “gamble” with holistic admissions. I don’t think it’s “luck” so much as that fact that the distinguishing factors become subjective things like essays and it’s not always easy to say what makes one stand out from the others.
I’d say in your case the obvious approach is applying to those schools but making sure you have proper match and safety schools as well.
The data I see says those schools’ acceptance rates are 6.96%, 9%, 13.2%, and 16.1%
If that’s correct, I can’t fathom how anyone would responsibly say you are “almost certain” to get in to them. Is there some huge data point we are missing? Parents gave $10M to each of them?
1600/4.0 might have a solid 50/50 or better chance, but without some unknown data, no way it’s as described, IMHO.
Unless one of the counselors is very well connected to those particular colleges, it is unlikely that s/he can have that much confidence in you being admitted.
My guess is that the more optimistic of your two counselors may be a few years behind the curve with regard to the steeply escalating competitiveness of these schools. My kids and I experienced this with a counselor we worked with. Having many years’ experience in this field can be a double-edged sword, because on the one hand there are years of accrued wisdom, but on the other hand it’s hard to keep up, and very easy to be a few years outdated in calibrating “chances,” especially when discussing schools that they don’t have direct experience with every year.
Since it’s so much easier to err in the over-optimistic direction, I’d lean toward trusting the more pessimistic opinion, keep your expectations low, and make sure you have matches and safeties that you love. That said, you may bring qualities that one or more of these schools will notice and love. There will always be surprises in the admissions process; hopefully you will have at least one good surprise to share. Good luck and let us know how it goes!