Hello all,
What is the estimated cutoff for semifinalists for CALIFORNIA? Last year, it was 223.
220 reasonable
If you want to be really pessimistic, assuming California students did exceptionally well, then maybe 224.
It would stand to reason that it will be a bit lower than it was last year, since last year is was based on 223 out of a possible 240. This year, the maximum is 228. There are folks on other threads that have estimated that the cutoffs might end up being ca. 5 points lower than last year, and that sounds about right. Only time will tell.
Come on, a 224 would be insane. That’s not even 99th percentile, that’s like 99.9th percentile. I have a feeling 220 sounds about right for CA.
My gut feeling is CA cut off score could be 220 or 221. I would say 221. One question I had was: what if top 1% for each state adds up to 25,000 students rather than the usual 16,000?
A lot of people across the board are saying 220 will be the cutoff score.
It’s not JUST about the score. It’s about a series of events and luck at being selected as SEMI-F, then finalist.
Certain schools are NM-friendly.
@“aunt bea”
Please explain further; from my understanding, as long as you have the score at or above the cutoff, you’re in. Do you think a 220 will be the cutoff for CA?
@“aunt bea” is completely wrong. Semi-finalist is determined by score only. Period. The reason some schools are “NM friendly” is because those schools attract a lot of smart kids.
@gusmahler
This is what I had believed too.
So, according to averages, 220 appears to be the cutoff for CA.
If this thread is all about guessing (which is all anyone can do), I’m going to guess 215.
To explain why. Before anyone’s score came out, everyone was guessing to subtract 12. Now that scores are out, and based on the concordance table, people are subtracting very little.
But the concordance table doesn’t agree with the percentiles on the score reports. Something isn’t right.
If you assume the percentiles on the score reports are correct (and you ignore the concordance table), you see that you need a 730 math / 700 verbal to be 99th percentile (user). In 2014, it was 760 / 730 / 730. The easiest way to use that info is that you should add 30 to all of your scores (or subtract 30 from previous scores). So, subtracting 3 * 3 from 224 is 215.
Based on pages 3 and 4 of the concordance tables, for the current (NEW) 221 SI score for CA, equivalent range of OLD score is 222 to 227 under the OLD 240 max score system. Assuming the old CA cutoff score was 223 out of 240 max score, my guess is that 221 SI score should be enough. My guess is the cutoff SI score is going to be either 220 or 221 for CA. Very, very slight chance it might be 222 but I doubt it. This is my best guess until the College Board releases an updated concordance tables in May 2016.
I’m guessing that we’ll have a better idea when the Commended cutoff comes out (April?) and when the final concordance tables come out (May?).
This is the best table so far to guess the cutoff for CA and other states.
http://collegeadmissions.testmasters.com/update-psat-scores-cut-national-merit-2016/
WOW…so I qualify in 44 states according to that chart…but of course not in my own state -_-.
Well, if it makes you feel any better (?), about 25% of the US population lives in states that wouldn’t qualify with a 217… :-?
@appgodxoxo, sorry, I was thinking NM winners not SF! Yes, it is about the score for SF. A good number of students, each year, meet the cutoff in each state. @gusmahler: I stand corrected! (DS was a NM award winner and I was thinking of winners and the series of events-our son did not choose a NM school as he did not like the locations.)
Hey Guys just to make sure I’m not giving myself false hope - so If the cutoff is 220, and I have a 220, that’ll mean Ill get the NMSF?
Yes. @chyaboi123
@appgodxoxo Thanks