<p>I don't know if this is really how the cookie crumbles but from my experience on these boards the best assessment I can give you is:</p>
<p>B/LA/SD/USC: I think these would be super reaches just because numerically, you're not really in SD's historical ballpark- assuming full points for leadership, ECs, volunteer work, and extra a-g courses, you're still short academically by about 300 points (see <a href="http://admissions.ucsd.edu/dev3/info/comreview.html)%5B/url%5D">http://admissions.ucsd.edu/dev3/info/comreview.html)</a>.
D/I/SB: I think these qualify as reaches as well... your GPA and SATs really kind of hobble your academic leverage and your EC data is really sparse. Track seems kind of nebulous- I mean, I don't know about your track team but mine has about 150 members. I'm not entirely sure what being a basketball manager means- I wouldn't really bank on it.
R/M/SC: These are definitely matches... I mean, I would apply to all the UCs (you never know, right?) but all three of these schools are fine places to be- SC and Merced are on the rise and Riverside has historically been a good school.</p>
<p>Assuming that you're not applying to all the UCs (you should), I think you should make a couple adjustments to your list:</p>
<p>Reach: Davis, Irvine, SB
Match: Cal Poly SLO, Riverside, SC
Safeties: Merced, SJS, SDSU</p>
<p>California really has an awesome public school system... I wouldn't be too bummed out if I were you. Obviously that doesn't mean put on the backburners and forget about improving the SATs (I think bumping your scores up about 200 on both the CR and Math sections would put you in Davis, Irvine, and SB territory), but please, please, please, please do not apply to just the top schools.</p>