Chance a rising senior?

Hi! I’m new to this forum so apologies in advance if I’m not doing this right. I’m deciding between a handful of schools to ED: Rice, Swarthmore, Columbia, UPenn. They’re all reaches so I’d also like to know my chances of some more LACs: Pomona, Carleton, Bowdoin, Haverford, Dickinson, Amherst, Colby, Wesleyan, and any recs. I’m undecided about my major but am leaning towards the humanities, especially journalism/psychology, eventually majoring in education and hopefully minoring in music.

Asian female
3.91 unweighted GPA, 4.69 weighted GPA
1470 SAT (700 reading, 770 math)
34 ACT
APs: U.S. Gov (4), APUSH (4), Music Theory (5), Statistics (4), APES (5), Spanish Lang (4), English Lit (4), BC Calc (3… 2 on AB subscore yikes). I’m not the best at testing and I struggled with calc all year sadly
IBs: ESS SL (5), Spanish B SL (6)
Family income: $80,000-$90,000
Have yet to write essays (I know I really should), recs should be good.

Senior year classes: IB English Literature HL, IB History HL, IB Math HL (worried about this one), IB Philosophy SL, IB TOK, Jazz Ensemble, Journalism
I’d like to note that I’m not just taking jazz and journalism for an “easy” class–I genuinely love music and writing and intend to pursue them in college. Plus, they’re both required for my leadership positions. However, I’ll admit that I’m concerned it’ll look like I just want a GPA boost. Also, I will most likely “self study” AP English Lang as it’s required in order to be exempt from intro English at my local state school.

Extracurriculars:
Drama club (pit orchestra chief, music director, composer)
Student newspaper editor
Student literary magazine editor (although I’m likely dropping this senior year)
Music honor society vice president

I’ve also had two parttime jobs: I work full time at a music store over the summer and during the school year, I tutor with a company after school.

Thanks in advance!

Also, I’m from the DC area and would like to be chanced for NYU as well, although I may not end up applying due to lack of financial aid. My SAT IIs are Math 2 (690) and U.S. History (710); both are rather weak and I most likely won’t submit them.

Your better chances will be at the schools that do not ask for SAT2s. Look up what the ED numbers are for each of these schools and that can give you an idea what your chances may be

I suggest calling NYU and ask them if they guarantee meeting need for ED. They don’t for RD. Some schools that don’t, will do so for ED. Otherwise it’s not a good choice for you

Run the for the schools to get NPCs to get an idea of what kind of financial aid you get from these schools. Also discuss with your parents what they are willing and able to pay.

I’d find some affordable EA and Rolling admissions schools that you are sure will accept you to pair with your high reach ED choice. That way if you are not accepted to your ED choice, you’ll have your safety schools in place and can apply to other reaches RD, knowing you have a place to go. I would put a lot of thought into picking those safeties. It’s harder to pick those schools because selectively is such a big deal in college choice for you, but the likely schools, the ones likely to pick you are often the schools you will likely be attending.

St. Olaf would work for a student interested in music. And the school is relatively generous with financial aid if that is a criterion.

@cptofthehouse Thanks! Do you have any suggestions for EA/rolling admissions schools?

@Hamurtle How prominent is religion at St. Olaf? I’m not really interested in going somewhere that’s very religion-heavy.

St Olaf has a good education department. It’s known for that. It is also known for its choral music and orchestra and participation by non-majors in these. If you go on the St Olaf reddit (just google that) there is a long post that describes the philharmonia and orchestra and will also give you a sense of the ‘vibe’ of music at the school.

Regarding religion, #1 keep in mind that the school is associated with the liberal ‘wing’ of the Lutheran Church. #2 they are not trying to convert you but rather create a welcoming space for students to deepen their faith, should they choose to. That’s how I’d summarize my D’s experience. She’s an atheist and is not alone in that at all. #3 that said, practicing their faith will be important for a larger fraction of your classmates at St Olaf than at other, secular, schools.

Most of the LACs you mention are reaches and most don’t give any merit aid, although with your family income, you may well qualify for financial aid. Some other LACs that are a bit easier to get into, give fin and merit aid, and have been mentioned with good music programs are Oberlin and University of Puget Sound.

Do you have safeties?

Have you run the NPCs on the schools that you are considering, and are your parents okay with the result? Running the NPC is particularly important before you decide where (if anywhere) to apply ED.

“I’d like to note that I’m not just taking jazz and journalism for an ‘easy’ class”
I know a very strong student and exceptional musician who took AP music. I would never call it an “easy class”.

@liska21 @DadTwoGirls Thanks for your input! I’d rather be in a city or the suburbs, so I’m not sure about Oberlin for that. I have a handful of instate schools as my safeties. I’ve run all the schools where I’m considering applying through NPCs and the best options for me financially are Rice, Swarthmore, Columbia, and Penn. It’s a little worrying that, over the past three years, only 2 students out of ~55 applicants from my school have been accepted into Swarthmore (for comparison, 14 of this year’s graduating class is headed to Ivies) but we’ll see what happens!