@DroidsLookingFor is saying that schools could make a multitude of different classes by just accepting different variations of qualified students. While it is true that schools will have preference for perceived fit when picking students using the idea I just mentioned, there is a significant degree of randomness, and whilst there is a significant degree of randomness in a finite function, the chances of a outcome will always go up with a higher data sample (number of schools). I agree with your perspective that applying to 3-4 good fits is the right way to go (that’s what I did last year) but I’m simply saying that statistically, chances will go up with more “top” schools.
Agree with @DroidsLookingFor here.
Among the tippy tops, there is a fair amount of autocorrelation in applications.
If apps were purely independent events, then the odds of applying to only 4 tippy tops and getting in to all 4 would be 1 in ten thousand (.1^4). But it’s not that low. In the same way, we can’t say “apply to 10 tippy tops, my odds of getting in to at least one are 65% (1-(.9^10))
We know a number of kids who have pulled getting in to all 3,4,or 5 they applied to, because what was attractive to one school was also to the others as well (top musician, LAX, etc). It also means, one can get shutout of all 4 or 5.
To reduce the autocorrelation, it is important to apply to a variety of schools, as in, some tippy tops, some great ones, some other great ones that are lesser known, and so on. Reach, match, safety. This reduces the autocorrelation.
This is if attending BS is really important to someone.
If it’s just about going to a top high school that happens to be a BS, you care less about the boarding experience and you love your local backup, maybe that changes the strategy. But it reduces the odds of BS admission.
I also think people dramatically underestimate how good the academics can be at schools “ranked” 20-60 (or 150!), or whatever ranking criteria is used. All these schools have small class sizes, Harkness-style learning, lots of clubs, immersion with peers and teachers. Generally a better academic environment than a school with large class sizes and less immersion, IMO.
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Yes for sure, we’re talking about the difference between population odds and the odds for a given candidate. The problem is that every high stat/high achievement kid believes they’re this kid:
“getting in to all 3,4,or 5 they applied to”
…and not this kid:
“one can get shutout of all 4 or 5”
Which is why the correct advice, for each and every chance me post, but especially those that list only GLADCHEMMS or a subset thereof, is to (also) apply to schools with meaningfully higher acceptance rates. Which is what I’ve said throughout.
And completely agreed about the academics and opportunities at slews of schools further, and often much further, down the rankings.
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Closing. See updated thread