Truthfully, for HYPMS it could go either way. I posted this several years ago and haven’t had the chance to update it with the class of 2020 and 2021, but you should look through those decision threads as well.
If you look through the College Confidential Harvard and Yale Class of 2019 Decision Threads and just focus on test scores, you’ll see that URM tests scores are just about the same as non-URM test scores. So, there seems to be very little bump from being a URM based on test scores.
Harvard Class of 2019 SCEA Decision Thread http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/harvard-university/1714730-official-harvard-university-2019-scea-decisions-only-p1.html
Harvard Class of 2019 RD Decision Thread: http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/harvard-university/1752941-harvard-university-class-of-2019-rd-results-p1.html
Yale Class of 2019 SCEA Decision Thread
Yale Class of 2019 RD Decision Thread: http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/yale-university/1752938-yale-university-class-of-2019-rd-results.html
Granted, you really can’t make a judgment based on 32 data points on College Confidential, however every year The Journal of Blacks in Higher Education posts an interesting chart about African American acceptance rates at various colleges vs. the overall acceptance rate: https://www.jbhe.com/2017/01/black-first-year-students-at-the-nations-leading-research-universities-2016/
As you can see – depending upon the college – being a URM can boost an applicant’s chances, but by how much depends on the school. For example, at Cornell, the African American acceptance rate was 17.6% vs the overall acceptance rate of 14.1% – so a slight advantage. At Vanderbilt, the African American acceptance rate was 18.9% vs a 10.7% overall acceptance rate – a large advantage. However, at the University of Chicago the African American acceptance rate was 8.3% vs the overall acceptance rate of 7.9% – not that much different. And, at UCLA, the African American acceptance rate was 8.7% vs the overall acceptance rate of 17.7% – not very encouraging at all. So a URM’s milage will vary depending on the school. Unfortunately, there isn’t published data for the African American acceptance rate at HYPMS. If I had to make a guess, I would think Harvard’s African American acceptance rate would be similar to UChicago – so not much of an advantage.
Based upon the 32 data points in College Confidential, Harvard seems to attract more URM’s with top scores – and those students are rejected and accepted with about the same frequency as non-URM students. Yale seems to attract more URM’s with lower test scores (possibly because of Questbridge), but for the most part URM’s with low test scores are not being accepted. And just like Harvard, URM’s with top test scores are rejected.
Bottom line, I think your chances at HYPMS depend LESS on your GPA and test scores and MORE on the strength of your essays, the quality of your teacher recommendations and guidance counselor Secondary School Report and your interview report – basically what everyone else’s chances are based upon.
Best of luck to you.