Get in contact with the xc or track coach. They might even try to get you to switch to ED1 if they want you on the team enough. With those stats you would have a pretty good chance of even getting a likely letter if the coach pulls some strings for you. You’d know you were accepted weeks before anyone else. The way they do recruiting is different than other elite schools and I’m no expert but the athlete card helps a lot.
Firstly, ACT is great and you have good extracurricular. The main thing is that your GPA is relatively low. That doesn’t mean too much given that your essays should be good. If that GPA is weighted, then that will significantly hinder your acceptance rate.
Overall, I believe that if you raise your GPA, you will definitely have a shot, especially if you go ED, considering they accept almost everyone through ED.