Chance me for Colgate ED 1 with interesting circumstances

I’m going to apply to either Colgate or U of Rochester this fall early decision and just wanted to know my chances…

School: Highly competitive college prep. HS
GPA unweighted: 3.53
Projected new SAT (based off of PSAT): 1350
Class rank: 43/210
Interest shown: plan on doing overnight stay senior year, visited multiple times junior year
Other facts: I had 2 major surgeries one soph. year during 2nd semester, I was only healthy enough to come back to school about a week before the APWH exam. The 2nd I had the 1st Semester junior year. Both TANKED my GPA especially trying to keep up with honors and AP courses. I’m going to write my essay around everything that happened during that time and how that affected my school performance and will be providing explanations from my surgeon/doctor and my guidance counselor. My grades when I did not have surgery met and at times went beyond Colgate’s standards
Letters of rec.: I can get 3 really good ones from my English, biology and academic dean

Also not sure if this is worth while but we are good family friends with an alum who donates often who could put in a good word. Not sure if that’s a good thing to do though, feel like that could be seen poorly perhaps…

classes:
Frosh.
H Intro to Lit. and Comp.
H civics
H Latin 1
into to Catholicism
H physics/chem. (half year of both)
H Algebra 1
Choir

Soph.
H World Lit.
AP World History (only AP offered sop. year)
3 on exam
H Latin 2
Church history
H chemistry
H Geometry
Choir
Computer essentials (online)

Junior
H US lit.
AP US history
H Spanish 1 (Latin didn’t fit in schedule anywhere)
H Algebra 2
H Biology
H choir (first year offered)
Catholic morality
Health and wellness (online)

Projected senior year
AP lit.
AP euro. history or AP politics (haven’t decided which I’m going to take)
AP Bio (double periods)
AP music theory
H pre-calc
Catholic applications

ECs:
JV frisbee 2 years
Founder and president of school book club for 4 years
Head statistician for Robotics team for 2 years
Work summer job at camp as counselor for 6 years
Invited to represent HS at medical conference in Boston
pro-life club
National honors society
National history honors society (forget the name for it)
250+ hrs of service hours
Church choir
State choir 3 years
Vocal lessons since 3rd grade
a Capella group 3 years
lit. magazine

3.5 GPA is low for Colgate. I think Colgate’s published numbers are misleading because they accept a lot of students for ‘reasons other than academic,’ meaning athletes and others who have unique circumstances. If you’re not a member of an under represented race, you need around a 3.9 unweighted, and some more leadership activities. Get your SAT up. Colgate is highly selective, but worth it if you can get in. U of R is not nearly as prestigious, and lacks the alumni network that will allow you to out earn your peers upon graduation.