Chance me for HYPSM + Caltech?

Hello everyone, could you please chance me for HYPSM and Caltech? I’m looking at majoring in either mathematics, physics, astrophysics, or some combination of the three. Could you also recommend other top schools in these fields? (Note: My safety is UT-Austin, where I’m an in-state auto-admit.) I’m a white male from the DFW area.

GPA: 4.0 unweighted, 5.9/5 on school’s weird weighting system
Rank: 1/~500
SAT: 2400, one sitting
ACT: 36, one sitting (35 E, all others 36, Writing 7)
PSAT: 237 junior year (assuming this is good enough for NMS)
SAT Subject: Math 2 - 800; took Physics and US History this month
APs taken freshman and sophomore years: Human Geography, World History, Calc AB (all 5’s)
APs taken junior year (waiting for scores in July): Language and Comp, US History, Calc BC, Art History, Physics 2, Physics C: Mechanics
Planned APs senior year: Literature and Comp, US Gov, Microeconomics, Physics C: E&M, Statistics, Chemistry
also taking two “beyond-AP” classes: Multivariable Calculus/Differential Equations and Advanced Physics (thermodynamics, special relativity, AC circuits, some quantum mechanics)

ECs:
three (hopefully four) years of varsity tennis in both singles and doubles, member of 2014 Texas state championship team (played line 4 singles and line 3 doubles)
Mu Alpha Theta/Math Club/Math Honor Society: vice president this year, president senior year; numerous math competitions and awards (will list below)
Academic WorldQuest: current issues and events-type competition - top six in region for three consecutive years

Awards:
UIL 5A Current Issues and Events State Champion (2013, 2014)
UIL 5A Number Sense State 3rd place (2015)
UIL 5A Mathematics State Team Champion (2015)
AIME qualifier (2014, 2015) - scored a 4 both times
member of Moody’s MegaMath Challenge Honorable Mention team, top 25 in the nation (nationwide math modeling competition)
numerous other regional and local math/science awards
2011 National Geographic Bee Champion (I know this is middle school, but it’s still a significant national award)
2014 US Geography Olympiad runner-up, bronze medal at International Geography Olympiad
assorted school and local awards

Leadership:
Math Honor Society vice president (junior) and president (senior)
National Honor Society president (senior)
Varsity tennis captain (junior)

I’m missing research; I believe that’s the biggest hole in my application.

My recommendations and essays should be good - I have a generally good rapport with all of my teachers, and my math teacher is also the Math Honor Society sponsor.

Thank you in advance! Please let me know if you need any more information.

I forgot to mention that I also have done over 100 hours of community service in high school, mostly for the city and school district.

5.9 out of 5?
It’s true what they say, everything IS bigger in Texas!
(just making a silly joke, I saw that you described it as “weird”)

ou have as good a chance at any of these schools as nearly any other applicant. I suspect that if you apply to them all, on the day that admissions decisions are revealed, you will have to choose between some excellent choices.

Reach to high reach

You might get into one if you are lucky.

All of these schools are reaches for everyone, but you’re definitely a competitive candidate at all of these schools. GPA, test scores, and EC’s all look good.

Your right about the research being a hole. Personally, I think you’ll still probably get into a couple of these schools. My advice would be to go SCEA at HYPS for the best shot. If you’re dead set on MIT or Caltech then apply to both EA, but just know that the advantage, from what I have noticed, is far smaller in doing this than applying SCEA.

Here’s a list of some other schools you may be interested in:

Other Ivies (honestly, pick the ones you like, but they’re all strong academically)
^If you’re into business and engineering, look at UPenn’s M&T program

U Chicago (EA if you apply with Caltech and MIT)
Duke
Rice
Harvey Mudd
Vanderbilt
Wash U

Honestly, I don’t think you’ll need to consider too many schools, maybe a dozen max. You’re credential are strong enough that I’d do your one safety (you’re a shoo in obviously), a few highly competitive but not most competitive (Wash U, Vandy, etc.), and mostly “reaches”.

Thanks to everyone for your input and feedback!