I will amend my “10%” statement to acknowledge that OP will indeed get a boost at MIT and Caltech due to him being a USA(J)MO qualifier. But it’s my observation that it doesn’t carry as much weight at other highly rejective schools and at those schools he’s an average excellent Asian male applying RD* to CS (maybe even from an over represented state?). So I stand by my 10% estimate which is definitely above that of most unhooked RD applicants.
(* - assuming he’s applying ED to UPenn or CMU)
@tsbna44 @AustenNut @aquapt @Metawampe @hebegebe
Thanks for the suggestions! I will definitely research these colleges a bit more and add them to my list.
As for why Penn, I visited the campus last week and it was amazing: the campus was beautiful, the students there also seemed to match me pretty well. As for why CMU, one of the main reasons it’s one of my top choices is because it has a really nice campus, and I love Pittsburgh. The research at CMU also seems a bit more interesting than the research at Penn, so even though Penn is my favorite right now, there’s still a lot of factors where I prefer CMU.
Oops, sorry for the misunderstanding. My school doesn’t offer Macro and Micro, so I self-studied for those, which is why I won’t report the Micro 4.
I know this has been discussed before and different people have different perspectives, but I think what is a safety can be within reason relative to the individual’s circumstances and not universal. While a school with a 25% acceptance rate is a safety for no one, there are schools more selective than 80% that are a safety for strong applicants, even where they don’t have an auto-admit structure.
For example, our state’s flagship has a 56% acceptance rate – well below your 80% threshold. But we have data on the results for over 2,000 applicants specific to our school in Naviance. The cluster of green checks in the higher quadrant of scattergram is so thick that it appears as a solid green blob, with not a single red x in the region. If your stats are high enough, it would literally be unprecedented to not get accepted. With no history of yield management, that’s pretty safe for some applicants.
Not going to lie, this thread has wayyyyyy too much pessimism. I know many students who got in to schools on your list (and similar caliber schools) with half the resume that you do. If you haven’t read this article before, I would do so. Then, rank your academics, extracurriculars, and athletics using the ranking system. Finally, make a guess for your personal ranking (which is based off of essays and interview). Then, you can calculate your admissions chances at the very top schools (MIT, Harvard) and then expect chances to be even better at slightly less prestigious schools (Berkeley, University of Penn., UCLA, CMU).
Last thing is essays for UCs are extremely different than regular college essays. UCs essentially what you to answer the prompt with a thesis and back it up with evidence, proving why you deserve admission. This strategy fell flat on its face for the privates I applied to.
tl;dr: read link. don’t stress. just pay for a very nice college counseling service to help you extensively with your essays and I would be dumbfounded if you didn’t get in to most of this list (except for Washington, because it is EXTREMELY unfriendly to OOS CS applicants)
Just to note numerous people did say the OP IS qualified for each and every school on the list including top choice Penn. Hence the ED, if truly the top choice, should go there.
But qualified does not necessarily equal acceptance.
So it’s always good to have some level of caution. I’m sure those with the 4.7, 1500+ claiming they are getting denied to schools like UF and UMD would agree.
People are really just saying - add a safety or two as a just in case. At least as I read everyone’s notes, that’s the takeaway I get.
That’s not pessimism. That’s practicality. And they can find that school with no additional essays. Hence no additional work.
You have an excellent profile. Congrats on a job well done!
Although I think your classifications (ex. safety, likely etc.) are too aggressive, you are a viable candidate for any college. However, as others have said, an excellent HS record is no guarantee of acceptance to an elite university. Simply put, there are many more worthy candidates than there are spots available.
If you were my child I’d encourage you to apply ED to Penn since it is “by far your top choice” as ED will improve your chance of acceptance. I would also encourage you to apply as early as possible to schools with rolling admission options (ex. UM, UT, UW etc. and add in a couple of less selective schools like Pitt, Ohio State etc.). Once you have acceptance(s) in hand from rolling admissions schools you would be happy to attend then that becomes your safety. After that if you don’t get into Penn you can focus your attention on colleges you would prefer to attend over your top EA acceptances. I do agree that UToronto could be a good option to have. On the off chance you get no EA acceptances and don’t get into Penn then you would need to re-evaluate your application list.
Take a deep breath. You are a fine student and should be poised for success at any college you attend.
Yet another reason to apply ED to Penn.
But would you be happy there?
I think you have a very solid chance of acceptance at UPenn if you apply ED.
If you vibe with Penn – if it is your favorite – and you are certain it’s affordable, go ahead and apply ED.
You can try to estimate your chances based on how your stats compare to past classes, but we’re missing one huge piece: we don’t know what any school is looking for exactly. We know that most try to fill a diverse class, with a plethora of different interests, but we don’t know how exactly you fit into that puzzle. Or, better put, we don’t know which schools’ puzzles you fit into.
So when you look at a school with <10% admit rate, it is safest to assume it is a reach for you. That will decrease disappointment if you don’t get in, and heighten the party if you do.
I think you stand as good a chance at Penn as most other applicants, and ED will very likely increase your chances… but I would never tell you to expect to get into UPenn. UPenn is nobody’s safety or even likely… barring athletes and development cases.
That being said, the only way to have no chance is to not apply. So swing for the fences. Just remember to have a safety you wouldn’t mind attending in your back pocket.
Continuing on this point, it’s not because you aren’t qualified. There are going to be probably ten times as many fully qualified applicants as there are spots. Those who get in have an intangible that admissions is looking for. Those things are unknown from the outside, for the most part. USAMO doesn’t hurt. 
Since I can’t share my local scoir data, I’m afraid I can’t give a citation. While it often seems otherwise, it’s important to remember that it’s actually a limited pool of applicants that are true 4.0/High rigor/1500+.
Cornell got 71,000 applications this year.
Only about 20,000 kids per year score over 1500 on the SAT. And not every 1500+ SAT scorer is applying to Cornell.
But let’s say that 1 in 4 students that have SAT over 1500 apply to Cornell…
That would mean only 5,000 out of 71,000 applicants have 1500+.
It’s the same with GPA/rigor.
So maybe 3,000-7,000 out of those 71, 000 applicants truly have the whole package. And you better believe those 3,000-7,000 have a much higher admission rate than the other 64,000 to 68,000 applicants.
I think your data may be old. Just a few years ago, 1500 was a 99th percentile score. Now, according to the CAPPEX article below, it’s a 95th percentile score. That means that about 85,000 test takers out of 1.7M are scoring 1500 or greater. That’s potentially greater than the entire Cornell applicant pool.
Yes. SAT scoring changed, and softened in about 2016. Two section scores are roughly 50 points higher. The curve is generally easier too. My son missed a single question all day on math. That dropped him to 760. That would commonly be a 800 now.
I took my SAT in October of my sophomore year if that helps in any way? Probably doesn’t though.
That’s interesting.
DD22’s high rigor school did very well. 20-25% of the kids had offers for T20s.
According to the College Board… which actually scores the SAT… 1520 is the 99th percentile mark going in to this year.
95th percentile is 1430.
As I said, 1500+ is still extremely rare. Even though 1500+ scorers are over represented on forums like this.
In 2021, 1.5 million students took the SAT. That means only 15,000 scored 1520 or higher. (Still probably about 20,000 over 1500)
While a high percentage of Cornell admitted students have SAT over 1500… the majority of their applicants do not.
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Please return the discussion to the OP. We don’t need debating on 99th percentile
Just curious … what kind of a student do you think goes to CMU that makes that student a “special” kind of student?
I didn’t say there was a special kind. I’m sure all kinds of students can do well there.
I just see CMU as very much a fit school. Of the several people I know who’ve attended over the years, some felt very much at home and loved their time there. Then there are several others who found it too intense and stressful and were miserable. And then there are those that loved CMU and hated Pittsburgh.
So, OP needs to figure out himself if he’ll enjoy being at CMU. Maybe yes, maybe no. Not for me to assess.