Chance me for Vanderbilt and other top schools?

Do you all think I have any chance at a top school? I will be applying EDII to Vanderbilt (dream school) but I am realistic and know I have a bad chance. Should I not waste my time applying to any elite schools and just settle for a good state school with a lot of merit aid?

Stats:

Top Public High School

Unweighted GPA - 3.3 (Current 3.0)
Weighted GPA - 4.0 (Current 3.7)

  • Freshman - 3.8
  • Sophomore - 3.2
  • Junior - 4.1
  • Senior - 4.9

ACT - 35

9 APs - so far received a 5, a 4, and two 3s

SAT and SAT Subject Tests - taking this month, expect to do very well on

Only two classes have not been Honors/AP

Extracurriculars - own a business, researched/consulted on and helped maintain real estate investments for a small LLC,
worked at TJ Maxx and a Landscaping company for a year, 2 years of varsity football, few meaningless clubs

Cirmustances - mental health and addiction in my family, led to a lower GPA first two years, explained in one essay

Great recommendations and good essays

High ACT and a low GPA often make colleges think that you’re lazy and unmotivated.

no chance