Chance Me?

Hey, so:
Personal info: asian/white male (trans if that matters lol)

Academic info:
4.4 GPA (got a C in an elective class junior year, kinda freaked out about that?)
34 ACT
Taking 2 SATIIs in October

ECs:
Captain of debate team
Class representative in SGA
Theater
National Honors Society
Animal shelter volunteering
Went to a summer research program (North Carolina Summer Ventures) the summer before junior year

School list:
UChicago
Rice
UC Berkeley
Stanford (yeah, a reach, ik)
NYU

Intended major? Home state? (NC?) Budget/financial constraints?

These are all reaches except maybe NYU, and even there it depends on your major.
You’re well in range to be qualified for all of them, but the majority of qualified applicants still get denied, so they can’t really be called matches per se.

Do you have other matches and safeties, but only looking for “chance” feedback on the reaches? If so, all good - and you have a shot at all of them, though the odds are against you at Stanford and UChicago. Have you shown lots of interest at Rice? That’s important.

Whoops, I left out a lot of info I suppose.

My intended major is polisci and I’m from NC. No financial restraints; I’m on the GI Bill.

Yeah, I have safeties, just wanted some opinions on my reaches. Kinda sad to hear about Uchicago, since that’s my top school, but meh. And yeah, I’ve done the tour and interview for Rice already.

My plan was to apply ED for UChicago, but with how low my chances are, I feel like it may be smarter to apply ED at another school, like Rice (where the ED acceptance rate is 20%). Thoughts?

Don’t take my assessment as any sort of verdict about UChicago - you’re a well-qualified applicant and certainly have a chance; it just has a crazy-low acceptance rate and denies many highly qualified applicants, so it’s not to be counted on. If it’s your true first choice, though, give it your best shot. They didn’t have ED back in 2013 when my older daughter applied (waitlisted UChicago, accepted RD at Rice) but now they’re accepting a hefty majority of their class ED; so your chances are much better if you apply ED (differential not on my radar 'til now since it’s a recent change), and I wouldn’t in any way advise you to pre-emptively write it off. Do a great job on the supplement and hope for the best. The RD acceptance rate at Rice isn’t ridiculous like UChicago’s 4%; you’ll still have a decent shot at Rice in the RD round if UChicago doesn’t pan out.

I think your chances at Berkeley are quite good. Since the UC system is all one app, you might consider checking the UC Davis box too - it’s a really great place to go for Poli Sci, especially given its proximity to the state capital, and it’s a great undergrad experience. I couldn’t quite call it a safety for you, but certainly a low match. (Santa Cruz would be a safety for sure - OOS acceptance rate is very high - and I’m not sure there’s any more trans-friendly campus anywhere.)

Also, this is a pretty cool route to a Berkeley poli sci degree: http://sciencespo.berkeley.edu/sciences-po/

It offers a great international experience and lets you do your lower-division classes in France and come back to Berkeley for the upper-division classes, thus skipping the assembly-line phase of larger classes in the first two years at UCB. Perhaps a random suggestion but fwiw - a lot of people don’t know about it.

Stanford, well… it’s pretty tough without a hook, but it doesn’t hurt to try.

Have you considered Tufts at all? Boston is another great city for political engagement, and Tufts is excellent for poli sci and great in terms of LGBT-friendliness and undergrad-focus.

As @aquapt said, U Chicago takes a very large portion of its class ED. The school used to only offer EA admission, but now has ED1 and ED2 as well as EA. The percentage of students getting in EA and RD is VERY small. If U Chicago is your number one choice, go for it. U Chicago has a lot of unique essays. Rice does not take as large a percentage of its class ED as some of its peer schools. Rice takes about 1/3 of its class ED and this includes athletes and Questbridge admits. Last year the number of students applying to Rice ED went up a lot. You have already shown interest in Rice so you should be fine applying RD.

You need to calculate your UC capped weighted and Fully weighted GPA for UC Berkeley and UC Davis and you want to make sure you meet all the a-g course requirements for the UC’s:

https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

https://www.ucop.edu/agguide/a-g-requirements/

Do you think my C is going to hurt my chances and potentially keep me from getting in? It was in a dual enrollment class.

A C won’t help you, that’s for sure, but as long as your other grades and test scores are solid you should be fine. Also, hopefully, the C wasn’t in an elective that relates to your intended major!

All of these are reach schools, either statistically or financially. If you do get accepted into one, you likely couldn’t afford it unless your parents have money to throw around. For private schools, the laws of economics contradict financial aid generosity. You need to apply to some good in-state options. Based on your list, you’re going to end up spending your first semester at community college. I recommend adding UNC, but it’s too selective to be considered a safety. I would also recommend a couple others like NCSU or UNCC, etc.

@coolguy40 Finances aren’t a problem for me; since I’m on the GI Bill, I can basically attend any school for free. Why do you say I’ll be attending community college?

I think what he meant was that you don’t have any safety schools in your list. If you get rejected to all on your list and/or for some reason you couldn’t afford a school, the assumption is that you’d end up at a default place which I guess he thinks would be a community college.

@ProfessorPlum168 Oh! Thanks for the clarification. I definitely have safety schools, but I figured putting those on a “Chance Me” list would be a bit redundant, so I only put my reach/low match schools on here.