Chance of admission to UC Irvine

Political Science major
UC unweighted GPA 3.88
UC capped weighted GPA 4.13
SAT 1350 essay - 19
Senior Year: Ap lit, AP econ, AP psych, Ap stats
AP tests, three scores of 4, one score of 3
ELC: Yes
First-generation
in state

Extracurriculars/volunteer/awards
Captain of Debate Team, Captain of Mock trial team, (4 years for all)
Volunteer on 2 political campaigns,
National Speech and Debate Association Member with Degree of Excellence
AP Scholar with honor
American Legion Boys State Delegate

a percentage range of probability would be helpful.

2018 Freshman admit rates for UC GPA of 3.80-4.19 capped weighted and not major specific:
UCI: 38%

2019 UC capped weighted GPA averages along with 25th-75th percentile range:
UCI: 4.13 (4.00-4.25)

2019 Data:
25th - 75th percentiles for SAT totals:
UCI: 1250-1510

Average SAT for 2019 Political science enrolled: 1219
Average UC capped weighted GPA 2019 enrolled: 3.98

I think UCI is a Match school so better than 50% chance for an acceptance.

would a match school be considered easier than a target school?
Also, does UCI admit by major? am I only competing against other poli sci majors?

Match = Target.

UCI admits into the university first and then into the major so possible to be admitted into UCI but not into your 1st choice major.

The enrolled student data I posted, is usually lower than the admitted student data, but your UC GPA and test scores are at or above the averages.

Your overall application will be considered.

UCI saw a huge increase in the # of applicants last year which dropped their acceptance rate.

As long as you applied widely and have a couple of safety schools on your list, you will be going to college.

Best of luck.