Here is my guess. But missing in your profile - Race/Leadership ?. Try www.admitster.com, It gives a good calculation based on on wide range of parameters. Biggest impact is leadership.
UMich Ann Arbor, - May be (based on college - LAC largest one, so high changes)
UW Madison, - Yes
UChicago, - NO
Northwestern - May be
Duke - May be
University of Virginia - May be
College of William and Mary, - Yes
Case Western Reserve, Yes (may be merit money - make sure you apply)
Boston University - Yes (may be merit money)