Chances for UCs/CSU/California Privates?

Hello everyone,
My son who is taking a gap year after senior year is getting ready to start the college application process. He is looking at mainly California schools, and a few other privates. His list is as follows:
UCLA,UCSD,UC Berkeley, UC Santa Barbara, UC Irvine, UC Santa Cruz,
Cal Poly SLO, San Diego State.

As for the private:
Chapman, USC, and Loyola.

He has some others as well:
University of Washington
NYU
Boston College

Here are his stats:
10-12 Academic GPA:
3.80 unweighted 4.52 weighted

9-12 Academic GPA
3.70 unweighted 4.30 weighted

SAT:
1480 Composite 20/24 he technically has one more chance (only has done it 2 times) but I think that a 1480 is good enough at most places, what does everyone else think?

Subject Tests:
710 Math 2
700 Bio

Calculate his CSU/UC GPA : https://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc/

Intended major?

@Gumbymom Major would be Public Policy (At USC etc.) or Poli Sci at schools where public policy is not a offered major.

His 10-12 UC GPA (Made a mistake on the first post his weighted for 10-12 is a 4.54)
3.8UW
4.54W
4.0 W and capped

This is what we were thinking not sure how accurate we are though… Let me know what you personally think.
Low Reach - Reach: UCB, UCLA
High Match - Match: USC
Match: UCSD, UCSB, UCI, Chapman, Cal Poly SLO
Safety UCSC, Loyola, San Diego State

We are all that sure what GPA he would need, looking at naviance stats he matches up with most admits at UCLA and other UCs, but that data is not always reliable.

http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/21182988/#Comment_21182988 shows 2017 admission rates by UC weighted-capped GPA.

Probably means for the UCs:

Reach: UCB, UCLA
Low reach: UCSD
High match: UCSB, UCI
Match: UCSC

UCs appear to be more sensitive to GPA than test scores, but USC appears to be the other way around, so perhaps another ACT and another SAT try for a higher score may be helpful with USC.

For the UC’s, @ucbalumnus’s assessment looks right.

LMU/SDSU/Chapman: Safety to Match
SLO: High Match

@Gumbymom Thoughts on USC? After looking at their freshman my son’s Unweighted GPA seems to be on the longer end, but his SAT score is on the higher end, and he is applying for an easier major. Could USC be a match-high match?

That really seems crazy how having a 4.54 Weighted GPA the only “match” is UC Santa Cruz

@JuniorDayz
Any ECs that you would be willing to list. That is the only way I could help chance

@redwall3000
Don’t really feel comfortable listing all of them on here, but they are pretty good, my oldest son who currently attends Cornell got in despite having a 3.6 Unweighted GPA mainly because of his ECs, and the son I am asking for a chance has similar ECs, and overall a better resume than my son at Cornell.

@JuniorDayz Understood. I would say that solely based on stats, he should have everything except for UCLA, UCB, and UCSD as his targets. I am putting SD as a low reach or possibly a high target since it has become more competitive through the years. Hope this helps! Feel free to ask more questions :smiley:

He is a competitive applicant. His stats and ECs make him qualified for all of these schools. Write great essays and he could get accepted anywhere