Yes, sorry. My tired brain had everything styled the same way 
.
This doesn’t mean anything, but I was looking at the information task force peer list (“a list of 30 or so institutions that are comparable in terms of size, scope, and resources” from the University of Richmond. The list contains both Middlebury and Trinity U. in Texas, where your daughter has received a very large scholarship. There’s obviously some commonalities between them and your daughter has great choices available to her. Keep your chin up!
- Babson College
- Barnard College
- Bentley University
- Brandeis University
- Bucknell University
- Clark University
- Colgate University
- College of the Holy Cross
- College of William & Mary
- Colorado College
- Davidson College
- Denison University
- Dickinson College
- Elon University
- Franklin & Marshall College
- Furman University
- Illinois Wesleyan University
- Lafayette College
- Lehigh University
- Lewis & Clark College
- Middlebury College
- Oberlin College
- Pepperdine University
- Rice University
- Skidmore College
- Smith College
- St. Olaf College
- Trinity College (CT)
- Trinity University (TX)
- Washington & Lee University
- Wesleyan University
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Love that list! FWIW, D20 attends 1 of them, applied to 7 others, and toured/seriously considered 6 more. 
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As a source of potential reassurance, this Forbes article includes the University of Chicago and Tufts: https://www.forbes.com/sites/nataliesportelli/2017/04/26/10-expensive-colleges-worth-every-penny-2017/amp/.
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I don’t think you should stress very much. My sister(who had a lower GPA but 1500 SAT) was accepted to some of the reaches on that college list (Vanderbilt, Tufts, UVA, among others like JHU). Stats are solid, the rest of it comes down to luck I guess. Don’t lose hope!
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Thank you so much! Unfortunately, it seems (reading CC at least, which I’ve been trying to do less lately in order to lower my stress levels 
) that SAT scores at/above 1500 are almost the requirement for top schools, regardless of GPA? My daughter has terrible test anxiety but did not want to apply for the extra time exemption and I’m so proud of her for still doing well, even if it’s below the “magic number” these schools want.
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If CC raises your stress levels, stay away (unless to give us an update). 
Just enjoy this time with you daughter during her senior year and know that she will end up at the right place. She’s already been admitted to terrific colleges with large merit scholarships. I remain confident that all will turn out well.
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Thank you so much! That’s exactly what I’ve been doing - daughter’s track season started so it’s been busy and fun. I will come back and update in March, when the rest of her decisions come out. But yes, she has great options already (which we’ve been evaluating and narrowing down in case nothing else comes through) so it’s not the end of the world.
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Not really. For example, at Middlebury, the mid 50% of SAT scores is around 1380-1520. It would be surprised in more than half of the admitted students have SATs which are over 1500. For Tufts, the mid 50% is 1400-1510, so likely more than half of the students who are accepted have SAT scores of under 1500. For Bowdoin, the mid 50% is 1340-1510, so again, more than half have SATs under 1500. For UVA, the mid 50% is 1330-1490 so more than 75% of the accepted students have SATs of under 1500. Only for Vanderbilt and U Chicago are SATs above 1500 the rule.
Also, Vanderbilt is TO this applications cycle, and U Chicago is test optional for good.
So while SAT scores may be considered, they are far less important now that a good GPA, and your daughter has an amazing GPA.
Your daughter’s SAT scores will not harm her applications. Her profile is on par with those of my daughter’s friends at Middlebury. She may not be accepted at the colleges with the lowest admission rates, but that is only because they reject most of their qualified applicants.
Basically, none of her rejections will be because her academics and other accomplishments are not on par with the rest of the applicants. And her SAT scores are almost certainly not going to be the reason that she is not accepted.
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The last paragraph is the key thing to take away, but it does have to be said that the middle fifty for hooked and unhooked kids isn’t the same.
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True, but since most of the reaches are TO, it is not all that relevant this year.
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Great analysis, thank you - and this kind of data is the reason I felt pretty good when my daughter first applied to all these schools. But that data is a few years old. Have you seen a significant number of kids this year (enough to account for the mid-50%) who got in with a score in the 1450-80s? I’d love to hear if you have, that would be encouraging news. Because looking at EA and even ED results people posted on various schools’ websites, I saw maybe three or four 1490s, for Michigan, in-state. And nothing similar for others. So I worry that this might be a weird year where schools compensate for TO kids by only taking crazy high-scoring test-provided students?
With luck, I’m just stressing for nothing and this cycle just started with very high scored admissions first, and will soon average out. Thanks again for this thoughtful analysis!
I agree that mwolf’s data is a couple of years old, and you are correct that for the last two year, TO has resulted in relatively higher mid-50% score ranges at highly rejective schools. Basically, many GCs and independent counselors (and some colleges) have told students to only submit their score if it’s at the median or higher. Obviously, that is not a strategy that works long-term.
Suffice it to say that I doubt your D’s 1470 would be the reason for any non-acceptance, even at schools that still really prefer scores like Michigan and WashU. Good luck.
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Really no one should feel good applying to extremely selective schools. They should just know that they have a chance, but that it will be a long shot.
Their selectivity doesn’t come from a bunch of 2.5/1100 applications. It’s because FAR too many fully qualified students apply. The reality is that the vast majority get rejected, not on qualifications, but on intangibles that outsiders don’t ever see. That’s why a well constructed list of safeties and matches like your daughter has is important.
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EDITED because it sounds like I misread and overreacted - my apologies to @eyemgh. The admissions process is stressful. I’m going to take my own advice and try to be kinder when presuming people’s intentions.
But I’d like to keep this topic focused on admissions chances and current admissions trends at the schools I tagged and listed (for kids with my daughter’s stats), not whether it was silly of me to hope that she wasn’t wasting her application fees by applying to schools where her GPA and SAT fall well within the range of past acceptances. And not on whether she needs to just get comfortable with the safeties she’s accepted to and start making plans to attend. I know that might be our future - but that would be a different topic
Silly or not, I did feel pretty good about my kid applying to all of those schools after we researched them - meaning I thought she had a chance. No entitlement or expectation that she’d get into all of them. But she is a first-generation American, speaks 3 languages, and lived through many iterations of nearly broke to well enough off to self-pay for collage in her short life, so I thought she had an interesting story.
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All of your feedback has been spot-on, especially this part. Thanks for sharing.
From my interactions with guidance counselors in my area, it’s clear that many are stretched too thin to be on top of all of the recent changes. Parents and students hear “don’t apply under the median” and lose the nuance. There’s 50th percentile of the pre-covid enrolled and there’s 50th percentile of the test-optional accepted - and a lot of room in between.
I definitely would have advised the OP’s daughter to submit to Tufts (and most of the others) regardless of their current published median. Her SAT is above the true, incoming class median; it’s just that the reported numbers are inflated by test-optional.
OP, your daughter has a great academic profile and will receive more acceptances over the next 6 weeks. Good luck!
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I’m sorry you took it that way. That was not my intent at all. I was simply trying to say that being in the zone for a specific school means that an applicant will not be automatically rejected. Depending on the school, and how selective their admissions are, it can still be a very long shot for fully qualified candidates. Hang in there. She’ll thrive wherever she lands.
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I don’t think the number of applicants with 1500+ scores has dramatically risen.
My guess is that schools are admitting roughly the same number of high scorers they did before — but the data is skewed because mostly ONLY high scorers are submitting scores.
If your daughter’s scores were strong based on historic (not recent) ranges, I think she will be fine. If anything, it will reassure admissions that she looks like candidates of years past and is not hiding a score that is significantly lower than her GPA would suggest (which could potentially raise questions).
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The number of 1500s did increase some in 2016 when the test went from 2400 points to 1600. New scores are higher in the concordance tables. 2100, an average of 700 per section, is 1470 on the new version. As a result, there will be more 1500+ scores. You are spot on though that for selective schools, the vast majority of applicants have high test scores and GPAs.
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Thank you very much! I’m glad to know I misread. Like I said, it’s been very stressful. I think I need to stay away for a while and just update in March.
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