Chances of Getting Into Duke?

Hello,

I am a senior at one of the most competitive private schools in my state (TX). I want to know what my real chances of getting into Duke are. Here are my stats:

(Good)

-4.03 GPA (3.93 unweighted)
-33 ACT
-Most rigorous course curriculum offered in every subject at my school, tons of AP classes and honors
-4 year varsity tennis starter (captain for three years, made playoffs three years I was captain)
-first freshman ever at my school to be elected captain for a varsity sports team
-demonstrated a lot of interest in SMU
-3 year varsity football starter
-2 years of JV basketball (didn’t play much because I wasn’t good at basketball)
-national honors society
-almost 200 hours of community service, a lot of which was working in emergency rooms in hospitals or clinics.
-spent two weeks in Seattle at a medical conference for aspiring physicians
-paid work as a lifeguard for a year, fully certified in CPR/First Aid
-member of debate team for two years, won rookie of the year award in the first year, qualified for state tournament
-foreign exchange program, hosted two students, one from Vietnam and another from Latvia
-elected senior class representative on student council
-started my own club and served as chairman (scientific research club)
-actor in two theater productions for my school
-felt very strongly about my essay
-no disciplinary record

(Bad)

-Shaky about my recommendations, don’t think I impressed the teachers I asked very much
-Made a C+ in AP Physics junior year
-Negative trend in grades (almost all A’s), but more A-'s and all my B’s and my one C+ were in physics
-white, male, good family income
-did not do research in high school

what are my chances like? I love brutal honesty. Thank you!

You seem like a strong applicant. Your ECs are good and I don’t think a lack of research experience will hurt you at all. However, you grades are a concern; for a school like Duke, a C+ will certainly raise some eyebrows, and having multiple B’s with it will not help (By the way, A- will not hurt). That being said, scoring well on the AP Physics C exam and the SAT physics subject test might help make up for your weak grades. There’s also the factor that a school like Duke is so competitive that even those with straight A’s and an insanely high ACT can get rejected. Being white male doesn’t help either :frowning:

Overall, you are a strong applicant but your chances are not very good because of the sheer competitiveness of the applicant pool.

Downward trend is not good. But a single grade will not kill you. They look holistically at everything. Its hard to say if this would put you out of the running or not without knowing who else in your area is applying. But overall I think its worth a try.